I'm not sure what's going on in that state, but I hope that whatever it is can be rectified by a Democratic senator.

Primarily due to a strong third party candidate and a weak Democratic candidate. No teabagger will win a state election for senate in Maine.

I think she just wants to retire.

She manages support on both sides of the divide, mainly because she really isn't an asshole. The party long ago left her, I think.

The split in the last election, with 37% for the independent (former Dem) and 20% for the official Dem, gave the election to the head case.

Next time around -- if the Dems are smart enough to pick a strong candidate -- it will be closer to 60-40 And Governor 38% has proven an embarrassment to the old-style, Snow-style GOP. They'll stay home, die or vote Dem.

I believe the filing deadline is only two weeks away. It looks like Olympia is flipping the bird to the party on her way out.

And I agree she's saying "Up yours!"

Good for her! If they run a bagger, that could give us the seat.

And if the economy is even slightly better, we WILL take the seat!

He doesn't fit in with the personality of the state, IMO. Kinda like Romney and MA--just a lousy fit.

The only announced GOP candidate is a complete wackaloon.

We have three solid contenders in the Dem primary. And, who knows, maybe more jumping in.

Names of Dems, please?

Former Sec of state Matt Dunap

State Senator Cynthia Dill

State Rep John Hinck

Ben Pollard, a Portland businessman

But, who knows? Will Pingree or Michaud jump in? There are only two weeks left to get petitions collected to get on the ballot.

I posted this a couple weeks ago in the Maine forum. http://www.dailybulldog.com/db/opinion/politics-other-mistakes-what-they-write-about/

It wasn't well received.

I'm just the messenger.

Registered Dem, though, I believe.

Now, it's kind of interesting.

Hinck sounds like the one with the most meat on his bones...!

I agree with you on Hinck. I suspect he was just running for name recognition in the future, but now he's a contender. I hope Pingree jumps in. She'd be the best candidate and representative for the state, I think.

I share your hopes. Even though I am only a paht-time Maine-ah, and a Masshole to boot, I want the very best for the state. It's the place I go to enjoy peace of mind!

but for the good of the state, I'll bite the bullet and hope she runs.

She is by far the best qualified and most suitable potential candidate I can think of. If she doesn't make her move now, she may never get a better opportunity. Whoever wins will likely be there for a couple decades. That's the pattern, anyways.

I've been very impressed with what little I've seen of her so far, obviously.

we get e-mails from her every so often. And she invites our feedback, ideas, suggestions, comments.

There is only one vote that was wrong, imo. Otherwise, every vote I'm aware of, she's voted as I would have and for the reasons I would have. Every thought she writes to us looks like it came from my brain.

I may be losing her as a rep anyway, depending on the GOP gerrymandering. So if she runs, I won't be losing her after all

Or you're leaning toward a Democratic candidate?

The dems should pick up this seat. Yes, we have a teabag asswipe as governor, but he won with only 36% of the vote - most of the votes came from northern Maine which is redneck country.

BTW, most Mainers (although even though I have lived in Maine for 26 years. . .I am still considered as being from "away" after all I was born & raised in Manhattan) are disillusioned with our governor. . .it didn't take long!!! Thank God!!!

(I will be retiring to Ireland in about 2 years . . . as soon as we sell our house. . . anyone on DU want to buy a house in south coastal Maine???)

This gives another seat In Play for the Democrats.WIthout her It gives trouble for republicans to hold the seat.

That and Rahm and company wasted years trying to get her vote.

said it was going too fast.

no. YOU need to be going too fast.

But thats my general reaction as well. Gives us that much better chance of keeping the senate. With decent probability of taking the congress and keeping the presidency.

The question is what good that will do us. Are democrats ready to end the abuse of the filibuster for the next congress?

Anything we have left after eight years of George Bush is thanks to the filibuster. It saved our asses--all of our asses.

Things look really, really good right now, but they'll be back, worse than ever, before you know it. Evil never rests in American politics. The filibuster is the last line of defense, and it was very nearly broken by the Bush coup. We should not do them that favor now.

The real way to nullify the filibuster is to have a supermajority in the Senate, which I foresee as a genuine possibility in 2014, particularly if we pick up a few of the only ten Republican-held Senate seats in play this time (while defending all 23 of ours).

This could be one of the pick-ups.

The Filibuster is genuinely anti-democratic. It should not be, purely on principle

But even if that were not so, it did not protect us from anything. The republicans made it perfectly clear that if they didn't get what they wanted, they would nuke it anyway. When the republicans next gain power, assuming there are no fundamental shifts in the national body politic between now and then, they will end or invalidate the filibuster the moment it becomes inconvenient.

The only thing we get by keeping the filibuster is a false sense of security while the country goes to shit and people lose everything.

And our chances of holding all the dem seats are about nil. We are going to have to fight to keep 50 Dems and an independent, much less increasing our numbers. Best case I can see, we lose Nebraska and NDakota, pick up Maine and Mass. We might end up with 52(+1). If we get really lucky and Dems run great campaigns and the 2008 style presidential coattails kick in again.

On edit: 2014 doesn't look any better. Barring a political miracle, there is no chance of a super majority then either. More Dems up than reps, again. If we can hold the line in 2012 and 2014, only in 2016 does a super majority become a realistic potential. Too late to do Obama any good. Too late to do a lot of us any good.

Just none of this "I filibuster the bill" nonsense.

That's the ones that really got me. They were killing bills purely by threatening to filibuster, not even having to just say i filibuster.

I could probably live with a return to the live, continuous talking filibuster. But I would prefer a majority rules vote system, no super majorities or any of that. Due to the way that the senate mis-represents the nation (2 senators from Wyoming, 2 from California, If you could get all the small population states to go one way or the other, you could in theory get a senate majority with the votes of something like 10% of the population, I figured the exact number a while back, but Ive since lost it.) The senate is already a fairly anti-democratic system. The filibuster makes it even worse. I would prefer to see it gone entirely.

I feel like dems just use the threat of filibuster to be lazy and complacent. We never heard this shit about "you need 60 votes in the Senate" until recently.

Currently, my thinking is in line with 2012 or Never by Jonathan Chait in the current issue of NY Magazine. The demographics are skewing towards an end of the current flavor of conservatism; by the next time the GOP has an opportunity at retaking the Senate or winning the Presidency, they may be so far behind the 8-ball and the makeup of the nation may have changed so much that Reagan Conservatism may not be viable.

The GOP has reason to be scared. Obama’s election was the vindication of a prediction made several years before by journalist John Judis and political scientist Ruy Teixeira in their 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority. Despite the fact that George W. Bush then occupied the White House, Judis and Teixeira argued that demographic and political trends were converging in such a way as to form a ­natural-majority coalition for Democrats.

The Republican Party had increasingly found itself confined to white voters, especially those lacking a college degree and rural whites who, as Obama awkwardly put it in 2008, tend to “cling to guns or religion.” Meanwhile, the Democrats had ­increased their standing among whites with graduate degrees, particularly the growing share of secular whites, and remained dominant among racial minorities. As a whole, Judis and Teixeira noted, the electorate was growing both somewhat better educated and dramatically less white, making every successive election less favorable for the GOP. And the trends were even more striking in some key swing states. Judis and Teixeira highlighted Colorado, Nevada, and Arizona, with skyrocketing Latino populations, and Virginia and North Carolina, with their influx of college-educated whites, as the most fertile grounds for the expanding Democratic base.

-Jonathan Chait. 2012 or Never http://nymag.com/news/features/gop-primary-chait-2012-3/

Another thing making a stand-up filibuster a requirement might do is it could potentially kill off one of the most annoying but least well known maneuvers available to Senators, the anonymous hold.

The "hold" stems directly from the threat of a filibuster. In a nutshell, a Senator can place a hold on a bill and it effectively is put on ice, so that the Senate doesn't have to lose further business-time by actually filibustering it.

I've been pestering Ruy Texiera with a hypothesis of my own, which is that the Bush coup policies actually did an excellent job of killing off Republican voters, particularly white males in southern states, where life expectancy for them has dropped below 50 years in a couple of cases. They're less likely to seek government assistance and less able to negotiate a bureaucratic process, with all its reading and logic (both of which are foreign languages to conservatives). If I'm right, Ruy's Emerging Democratic Majority is accelerating faster than anyone is willing to guess.

So far, he doesn't seem to be buying it, though.

Maybe, counting the Maine flip.

http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/senate12.php

But it's still a long time till November.

It's a good resource and it's as good a resource as any right now but like I said it's a long time until November. If you're wondering where we stand today, then I endorse it in that respect.

let us pick this up

Maine has gone over to the dark side with the Tea Party and there is a good chance that she would have a real battle in the primary race. I don't blame her for walking away. This is coming from someone who lived in Maine for almost 4 decades before moving away.

The repubs went to the selfish side even more by going full tilt teahaddist. The state itself reflected an enthusiasm gap in 2012 that I expect is reversing itself. The republican presidential pick cannot help but disappoint some faction of the republican party and the fact that the repubs have picked a real neandrathal over Snowe wakes this seat much easier to pluck.


By the way, this is the reason we should never, EVER leave a seat uncontested.

Cynthia Dill (D) - State Sen., Ex-State Rep. & Attorney
Matt Dunlap (D) - Ex-Secretary of State & Ex-State Rep.
Jon Hinck (D) - State Rep., Attorney & Ex-Greenpeace Activist

I'm reaching out to my DSCC contacts to see if there's anyone in the wings.

Let's take it back for them.

and asking for a return to the middle.

Then she could caucus with the Dems. Voila!

She's wanted to get out for a while. This seems like a good time for her and she can go out with a message.

I wish she had bucked the party more the past 3 years, but when you're threatened by the gopgoons for even straying from party dogma you're stuck in the box.
I always thought of her as a decent person and wish her well.

She needs to go, too.

Quite a lonely proposition I would think, to be the last of a near-extinct political entity. Collins might as well switch parties, or go Indie and caucus with Democrats. Absent that she stands to be branded as a RINO and face a likely Teabagger primary challenger. In Maine by ditching the GOP she would likely encounter a better fate than, say, Arlen Spector did in PA.

We can win this one!!!

Not with two weeks till the deadline. I don't know if any other Republicans either. Chellie might be able to, but I don't think anyone else could.

Michaud might be able to, but then we would be giving away the House seat to Kevin Raye. But if Chellie jumps in, another CD1 Dem could probably get it together in time.

they have to have double the number of signatures.

Last edited Tue Feb 28, 2012, 08:44 PM - Edit history (1)

Matt Dunlap, former state rep and sec of state of Maine

John Hinck, state legislator

Cynthia Dill, state senator

Right now the Repukes have some TeaBaggers running and that is it.

Maybe Raye will give up on the House and run for Senate.

With two weeks left to submit petitions I have to wonder if she has not
given the GOP a heads up in order for them to have an advantage over
Democratic candidates.

What's on the horizon that she just doesn't have the stomach for?

I trust Repukes about as far as I can throw them.

How will a new candidate get all the sigs by March 15?

The Dem primary already has 3 candidates.

But actually, I meant a GOP candidate.

How does her quitting on short notice help the GOP?

will be I'll withhold my suspicions. It's my understanding
Snowe would have easily been re-elected. So, wondering
if there's a highly electable Democrat that would be in this
race if Snowe had announced earlier.

I just can't believe Snowe is handing this opportunity on a
platter for Democrats.

If she gets in, she will win in a walk.

marvelous! Where do I send my donation?

No one's been collecting signatures, that I'm aware of. Other than the one opponent. I can't even remember his name.

We'd have taken her, and she'd be re-elected easily.

I am a Democratic County Chair in Maine. I would have resigned and taken as many of my people with me as I possibly could if the Dems accepted Snowe as a nominee.

As modern Republicans go she'd pretty damn decent too. I'd be happy to see a Maine Dem in the Senate again but Snowe has had broad support from all sides because she is widely respected in the state. Collins, not so much.
Snowe's sick of the pandering to the fringe elements of the party and the campaign by the teabaggers to challenge her probably ticked her off enough to call it quits. I'd also bet that she knows that she's essentially handing the seat to the Democrats.

not a cakewalk and i don't think voters would have been as patient as PA Dems were in voting for Specter in the primary.

I was under the impression the Dems weren't putting anyone out to oppose her.

how long does it take to decide to run in a primary? for an open Senate seat???

writing this post takes longer than that.

By the way, how are we going to get a candidate in by the 15th to oppose whatever teabagger is waiting in the wings?

Are you serious?

And am I actually talking to a blue dog Democrat?

Blue dogs don't have any ideology, they don't stand for anything, they just stand between people who do.

I figured it was about 10 x that. Thank you for answering my question.

I am stunned.

Looks like a huge pickup opportunity for Democrats...now all we have to do is find the right candidate.

Yesterday that Kerrey will be running in Nebraska.

And now this.

It's too soon to celebrate, but things seem to be getting better everywhere.

(in domestic politics that is)

That was the news yesterday. I haven't read anything more on it today.

Although she was called "a moderate." She still voted for all the GWB shit and went along with the repigs with everything they really wanted. Good frigging riddance, and perhaps we can grab her seat.

or a Chevy, but either way it's a pick up.

Maine DUers, who is running?

Matt Dunlap, former Secretary of State
Jon Hinck, State Rep
Cynthia Dill, State Senator
and someone I can't remember.

Filing deadline is March 15.

Try to get some rest, to keep up the good fight.

who represents the 1st CD. She' s a great progressive as well as having the name recognition and backing to get in this late.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/29/chellie-pingree-maine-senate-olympia-snowe_n_1311508.html

Looks like she's running.

Hope she finds something more fulfilling.

You managed to once again cannalbalized obe of your own.

The center no longe exists for Republicans.

Bravo for her telling it the way she sees it.

She was a dependable vote for the Republicans, especially when it came to votes on a filibuster. Plus, she had an opportunity to speak out against the partisanship, etc., but she choose to remain silent. She will not really be missed.

especially in a presidential election year. The state is kinda quirky and independent but should go blue again. I don't know how popular the Dem candidates are, but I see that one is former Secretary of State, so I see she has won a statewide office before. That's encouraging.

My state senator is trying to get this seat I thought she was crazy for getting into this race... Now it looks like she has a shot!

As I understand it, she almost backed out last time because of being in so long and having osteoporosis.
A lot of this is just personal reasons. She's 65 and wants to retire and rest. Understandable.

what the tenor of Congress has become, he she is tired of it. She should know. How many times did she vote lock step with ole Mitch to filibuster everything? How about most the time time. Nice to see your "moderate" self go.

It's not good for the GOP. They just keep getting more extreme. I pray they don't take the country along with them.

On edit--found this article, think it's edifying:

Olympia Snowe, the moderate Republican Senator from Maine who has been in congress for 33 years, announced yesterday that she will not seek reelection. She cited the increasingly divisive state of American politics as a reason for her resignation. "I do find it frustrating...that an atmosphere of polarization and ‘my way or the highway’ ideologies has become pervasive in campaigns and in our governing institutions," Snowe said. This may have been surprising to some, but in retrospect the 2010 battle over health care reform may have been the last strew for the Senator. As first, Snowe broke with Republican ranks, voting for the Finance Committee’s health-care-reform bill in Oct. 2009. But then she voted against the longer version of the bill put before the Senate in Dec. 2009. In a piece about just how demented the Senate is, the New Yorker's George Packer quoted a Snowe confidante who said:

"[Olympia] actually said to me once that she had never felt the pressure that she felt on health care, never before had that pressure been quite as evident to her or quite as real or troubling. Kyl and McConnell were saying things like 'You just can’t let us down, we’re all in this together. You’re a senior Republican member of this caucus, and you just have to hang tough with us. We expect it and you’re going to do it.'"

back before the religious right took over the party.

Some teaparty type will win the GOP primary and ultimately a democrat will take over the seat.

Shame because Snowe would have been a sure win for the republicans. Just like Mike Castle would have been a sure win back in 2010. But thanks to the Tea party will gain another seat.

her 'moderation' was so moderate it was barely visible.

and she was very supportive of women's rights.

Would I vote for her? nope.

But the Republican party is going down the toilet allowing people like Snowe retired so that idiot tea baggers can attempt to win their seats.

I live in Maine and have been writing at least wkly to Senator Snowe for at least 12 years. I just wrote to Chellie and welcomed her to the "Snowe Seat" of the USSenate. Ahhh yes, good ole days of Mitchell and Muskie I am eager to see that change on the same day that our current President is voted in for his second term...Here comes the SUN!

Pingree is likely to follow.

Doesn't mean they will both run. I assume they are sitting down and talking this over right now.

Granted, they all need 2000 signatures by March 15 but the Secretary of State's office is one crazy place today.

I believe it will require a special election, right? Not a governor-appointed repub, right?

Many people took out nomination papers for that seat today.

Michaud said in a statement, “While I have been humbled by all the support and encouragement I have received in the last few days, I’ve decided to not run for the U.S. Senate this year. I want to continue to represent the wonderful people of Maine’s second district and keep working on the unique issues and challenges we face. I am also very proud of what I have been able to accomplish on behalf of Maine’s and America’s veterans and that work must continue.”

http://bangordailynews.com/2012/03/01/news/mike-michaud-out-of-senate-race/