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Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 07:36 PM Apr 2015

Dispatches: Don’t Be Fooled by Saudi’s Reshuffle

April 29, 2015

King Salman’s promotion of his nephew Mohammed bin Nayef to the position of crown prince and heir apparent marks a change of direction for Saudi Arabia, raising the possibility that power in the kingdom may be put directly into the hands of the House of Saud’s younger generation for the first time in history. But don’t be fooled into thinking it will bring about a new approach to human rights.

The reshuffle itself is less surprising than its timing, a mere three months since Salman came to the throne. By elevating Mohammed bin Nayef, the king has indicated he is disinclined to undertake badly needed human rights reforms.

Mohammed bin Nayef, 55, has served as Saudi Arabia’s interior minister since 2012. Before that he was the kingdom’s counterterrorism chief. His father, Nayef bin Abdulaziz, was interior minister for more than 36 years, and was feared by many Saudis for his zero tolerance of dissent.

Some Saudi activists hoped that once Mohammed became interior minister, he would end some of his father’s abusive practices. But instead he has entrenched and institutionalized them. Since 2012, the Ministry of Interior under his leadership has carried out a sweeping crackdown on peaceful dissent, using its powers to intimidate, detain, and imprison anyone who dares to criticize the government or call for serious reforms.

http://www.hrw.org/news/2015/04/29/dispatches-don-t-be-fooled-saudi-s-reshuffle

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bemildred

(90,061 posts)
2. Welcome to Sudayri Arabia
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 01:02 PM
Apr 2015

There are at least two ways to look at the dramatic changes to Saudi leadership announced yesterday. One is to see this as King Salman finally setting up the long-overdue generational transition from the sons of the first king, Abd al-Aziz ibn Sa’ud, to his grandsons, as well as empowering some of the best and brightest of that next generation. It is unquestionably true that many of the men that Salman has appointed to new posts yesterday and in preceding months represent some of the most capable, best educated, and most highly-respected figures of the younger generation of Saudi princes and technocrats. It is a happy story, and one that should not be dismissed despite what I am about to tell you.

The other way to see the events in the Kingdom is that it represents a Sudayri coup. At the very least, it is a major consolidation of power by the Sudayri wing of the al-Sa’ud royal family. The Sudayris are the sons and grandsons of King Abd al-Aziz with his favorite wife, Hassa bint Ahmed al-Sudayri. That union produced 7 sons, the largest bloc of full brothers among the dozens of sons of Abd al-Aziz. The late King Fahd was the oldest of them, but they also included the late former Defense Minister Sultan, the late former Interior Minister Nayef, and now King Salman. For decades, the Sudayris constituted an extremely powerful grouping within the royal family and during King Fahd’s reign they effectively ran the country. But their power and cohesiveness inspired sibling rivalries, and many of their half-brothers disliked their policies as much as their efforts to monopolize power.

Today, as a result of Salman’s many changes, nearly every major post in the Saudi cabinet is held by either a Sudayri or a non-royal— able technocrats like Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi or the new Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. Only Prince Mitaib, the son of the late King Abdullah, remains as a non-Sudayri prince in charge of a key ministry (the National Guard). And although it was widely believed that the aged and ailing Prince Sa’ud al-Faisal was looking to step down as foreign minister— and no one can gainsay the appointment of the highly-capable Adel al-Jubeir as his successor— Sa’ud Faisal’s removal eliminates still another powerful, non-Sudayri prince from the cabinet.

Most stunning of all, the king removed Prince Muqrin bin Abd al-Aziz as the crown prince. Prince Muqrin was the last son of Abd al-Aziz in the succession chain, he was relatively young by the standards of Saudi princes (69 years old), and was reportedly picked by King Abdullah to follow Salman in part to prevent the further monopolization of power by the Sudayris. Since the formation of the Saudi state in 1932, the al-Sa’ud have never removed a crown prince. They did remove a sitting king once (Sa’ud bin Abd al-Aziz in 1964) but never a crown prince. Moreover, this unprecedented move leaves the next two princes in line of succession as Sudayris from the younger generation—Muhammad bin Nayef (55 years old) and Muhammad bin Salman (the king’s son, probably 30 years old). It means that the Sudayris could reign for another 50 years.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/04/30-saudia-arabia-salman-yemen-pollack

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
3. Who knows, they may crash and burn sooner than anyone may have thought possible..the fuckers.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 02:51 PM
Apr 2015

Thanks for the OP.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
4. It made more sense than most I've read about the Saudis lately.
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 04:42 PM
Apr 2015

And it jibes well enough with what they seem to be doing.

It's hard to see it going on for long, and it's hard to see what's going to stop it.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
5. True, and they just sealed a deal this month, weapons sale for something like 40 billion dollars,
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 07:12 PM
Apr 2015

I think. Who and or what is going to stop them?

Lockheed Martin was reported to have used this language in their projections not long ago, growth market,
while referencing the ME region.

That never sounds good to me.

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