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Purveyor

(29,876 posts)
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:10 PM Jun 2015

Beware of a Humiliated Greece

Jun 29, 2015 10:36 AM EDT
By Leonid Bershidsky

The ancient Greek historian Thucydides said people went to war motivated by honor, interest and fear. The current Greek government's decision to break off talks with creditors is a clear case of a wounded honor, or pride, driving a momentous decision.

As they prepare for Sunday's referendum on whether to accept the last bailout offer made by their creditors, Greeks should take a little time to recall how powerful -- and dangerous -- this kind of perceived humiliation can be when used to influence political decisions.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras mentioned humiliation twice in a speech on Saturday, as he proposed the referendum, calling the euro area's proposed bailout terms an "extortionate ultimatum that calls for strict and humiliating austerity." In the preceding weeks, he had agreed to most of the measures in that "ultimatum," but he and his Syriza comrades apparently couldn't take it anymore. The creditor institutions last week took the liberty of marking up one of his counterproposals in red font, as if he were a failing student!

As Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis explained the referendum idea to other European finance ministers on Saturday, he too accused them of having sacrificed common ground "in favor of imposing upon our government a humiliating retreat." This assertion will be an important talking point for Syriza, as it campaigns for "no" vote.

The manipulation of humiliation has a long and inglorious political history. Hitler used it in "Mein Kampf," written when Germans were smarting from their World War I defeat and the punitive peace terms that followed. Islamic State and other such radical groups in the Middle East explain their extreme actions by saying Muslims have for too long been humiliated by invaders and foreign puppeteers, such as the U.S. In China, recovery from "one hundred years of humiliation" in the 19th and 20th centuries is an important tenet of the current national ideology. The humiliation of the Soviet Union's demise is the starting point for Russian President Vladimir Putin's resurgent aggressiveness. In some areas of India, Narendra Modi's party campaigned last year with promises of revenge for the humiliation of Hindus at the hands of Muslims.

more...

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-29/beware-of-a-humiliated-greece

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Beware of a Humiliated Greece (Original Post) Purveyor Jun 2015 OP
It won't happen with the Greeks, at least over this still_one Jun 2015 #1
Do we want to feed Putin a big meal DonCoquixote Jun 2015 #2
The Greeks have to choose between forced austerity and repaying the debt or BillZBubb Jun 2015 #3
Of course. Igel Jun 2015 #4
Technically both sides are right strategery blunder Jun 2015 #5

DonCoquixote

(13,616 posts)
2. Do we want to feed Putin a big meal
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:42 PM
Jun 2015

Then let's kick the Greeks, so that they will invite him in, and then they can have a nice stronghold in Europe.

The Eu was a nice idea, but, as could be predicted, Paris, London and Berlin made a mess of it.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
3. The Greeks have to choose between forced austerity and repaying the debt or
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 05:03 PM
Jun 2015

self-inflicted austerity, but with the debt gone.

That seems to me to be an easy choice.

Igel

(35,393 posts)
4. Of course.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 06:58 PM
Jun 2015

It's the same choice that makes people take out huge debts on credit cards or student loans or 2nd mortgages then say they were snookered and shouldn't have to pay it back.

The manipulation of honor in this is convincing them that they were snookered, that they are the innocent victims. That's easy enough--nobody likes to think badly of themselves.

That frees them from the dishonor of being false to their word and committing fraud; instead they are virtuous defenders of honor by bravely resisted the predations of wrong-doers who abused them, and care bare the shame of defeat.They can be proud of their heritage, proud in defeat and fighting injustice perpetrated against them. All they have to do is survive.

And in so doing, say, "The South ... Uh, Greece Shall Rise Again."

At that point convincing them that they acting shamefully is almost impossible. Their identity and self-image is so tied up in it that they'll fight than accept "revisionist" history.

It worked in Alabama. It worked in the Donbas. It worked in parts of the Middle East. It'll work in Greece, and as in the Donbas no doubt put the nationalists firmly in the same camp with the socialists. Russia as natsbols, "national bol'sheviks". SYRIZA + Golden Dawn = ...?

strategery blunder

(4,225 posts)
5. Technically both sides are right
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 07:36 PM
Jun 2015

The creditors are right when we consider the long term: Greece cannot continue to run its economy for the next 40 years as it has run it for the last 40 years. The irresponsibility of Greece that got it into this mess cannot continue.

However, Greece is right in the short term: the austerity measures demanded by the creditors have brought its economy down to Great Depression levels. It can no longer generate enough tax revenue to pay down the debt without shrinking its economy even more, especially if the creditors do not allow the country to raise or enforce taxes upon the 1%. Indeed Greece actually agreed with its creditors on an overall budget target, but the creditors demand all pension cuts while Greece wants the wealthy to share in the austerity through taxation. Pensioners spend their income; the wealthy stash it offshore. Guess which course of action would be better for the Greek economy, thereby allowing Greece a better chance at managing its debt and the creditors a better chance of getting paid? There's a reason why economists have been pleading with the EU to allow Greece some short-term flexibility.

If the EU wants to cut Greece off in the short term, or asphyxiate it by demanding even more austerity from a country already in depression and actually in need of some breathing room, the Greek economy won't even survive long enough to pay off the country's creditors. Their all-or-nothing attitude is making the self-inflicted austerity, with reclaimed sovereignty over monetary policy, the better deal for the Greeks. That's why the EU is TERRIFIED that Tspiras would dare put this to a referendum (but the eurocrats can NEVER admit mistakes, nuh uh).

This is bad for everyone involved. Germany of all nations should recognize this. After World War II, not only did Germany have much of its debt/reparations forgiven, what remained did not need to be paid until such time as the country had recovered enough to sustain the payments (i.e. until Germany attained a trade surplus). The Allies allowed such concessions partly to discourage extremists such as Nazis from gaining power again.

And yet, who is the only credible opposition to SYRZIA? The centrist parties all sold out to the austerity. That leaves Golden Dawn as the opposition. Neo-Nazis. They'd be banned in Germany, but Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, might well hand them the next Greek election.

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