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Denzil_DC

(7,290 posts)
Sat Jul 2, 2016, 07:59 AM Jul 2016

Don't blame Jeremy Corbyn - polls show only Tory voters could have kept us in the EU

The Labour Party was already having enough difficulty keeping itself together without a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union coming along. The party was reeling from the election of a leader who was not only well to the left of most of his parliamentary colleagues but also did not obviously have the personal skills needed to do the job. However, the referendum on the EU compounded the party’s difficulties by exposing another fissure - between its traditional white working class supporters and its public sector socially liberal middle class ones (including the vast bulk of its parliamentary party). In combination the two divisions threaten to tear the party {a}part.

Elections in the UK are usually about the left and right of politics, whether the government should do a little more or a little less. On this Labour’s working and middle class supporters tend to be at one with each other. They all, albeit to varying degrees, want the state to do more, to curb the excesses of the capitalist market and produce more equitable outcomes. So long as political conflict focuses on this issue they are a viable electoral coalition.

...

Corbyn not to blame

Against this backdrop it was hardly surprising that across Britain as a whole only around two-thirds (63 per cent according to Lord Ashcroft, 65 per cent as estimated by YouGov) of those who voted Labour in 2015 voted to remain in the EU. The party was never likely to achieve much more than this. And at least the party’s coalition did not fracture as badly as the one that backed David Cameron a year ago; well under half (42 per cent according to Lord Ashcroft, 39 per cent, YouGov) of those who voted Conservative in 2015 voted to remain. The real source of the Remain side’s difficulties was the failure of David Cameron to bring his own voters on board.

...

Yet it is Jeremy Corbyn who is taking the blame ... inside much of the Labour party for the Remain side’s failure, as the party’s pre-existing division about his leadership interacts with the division made manifest by the referendum. Of course, MPs are entitled to make their own judgement about Mr Corbyn’s capabilities for the job, a judgement that his performance in the referendum appears to have reinforced and which they may feel has become more pressing given that the outcome of the referendum makes an early general election more likely. But in truth there is little in the pattern of the results of the referendum to suggest that Mr Corbyn was personally responsible for Remain’s defeat. The referendum outcome looks more like a pretext for an attempt to secure Mr Corbyn’s removal than a reason.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/dont-blame-jeremy-corbyn-polls-show-only-tory-voters-could-have-kept-us-eu


This article is almost impossible to chop down to four representative paragraphs (and needs a decent proofread - quite a few choppy edits and typos) - you'll have to click through to read the whole thing to understand the author's argument.


What partisan hack wrote it? - A name those who've watched UK election night result programmes over many years may recognize: John Curtice.

X-posted in UK Group: http://www.democraticunderground.com/108810890

John Curtice isn't a name I'd expect many US DUers to know. He's a familiar figure in the UK because he's been the resident poll analyst during TV election results coverage since the 1970s. He's not Nate Silver - he seldom makes categoric predictions, but I trust him to parse real election results when they're known.

The full article backs up the assertion in the headline with detailed analysis of the results. The blaming of Corbyn is opportunistic.

The conclusions Curtice reaches include some home truths for all of us who are trying to understand what happened, why, and what may need to be done as a result. It's more nuanced than many of us have been, and focuses clearly on the effects of globalization.

It's just one analysis, but in view of Curtice's experience and long-term perspective, I have to give it due weight.
3 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Don't blame Jeremy Corbyn - polls show only Tory voters could have kept us in the EU (Original Post) Denzil_DC Jul 2016 OP
Thank you. This perspective is much appreciated! scarletwoman Jul 2016 #1
Politics has become incredibly dirty. This is manufactured outrage to try and take him down newthinking Jul 2016 #2
Wow-65% Labor only 39% Conservative voted to remain, and Corbyn is blamed? stuffmatters Jul 2016 #3

newthinking

(3,982 posts)
2. Politics has become incredibly dirty. This is manufactured outrage to try and take him down
Sat Jul 2, 2016, 01:53 PM
Jul 2016

because he is not enamored with the status quo. It has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with dirty politics.

stuffmatters

(2,574 posts)
3. Wow-65% Labor only 39% Conservative voted to remain, and Corbyn is blamed?
Sat Jul 2, 2016, 03:42 PM
Jul 2016

Yes, this is a fact that I've never heard or read on our MSM. This really does make the Conservatives' and Cameron's recklessness in calling this referendum appear deliberate, motivated by a conservative coup d'etat of Corbyn, who's party voted overwhelmongly to remain.

It's very alarming in the US to witness the irresponsible, uninformed coverage BREXIT has received in our press. Even our smartest political comedians(eg.Colbert, Samantha Bee) have completely failed to understand the realities and dynamics of this vote.

Even worse I'm noticing the inevitable drift of our relentlessly superficial, false equivalence obsessed MSM capitalizing on the Brexit for their corporate owners. In their neo intellectualism. the MSM is starting to conflate BREXIT voters with
opponents of TPP. It's the same intellectually lazy and fearmongering MSM that saturation propagandized a false equivalence between Trump and Sanders supporters.

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