Offering Julian Assange asylum in Ecuador could be an empty gesture

While Assange seems to be feeling desperate, the supreme court's ruling on article 8 in extradition cases is more useful to judges than MPs stating the obvious
Joshua Rozenberg
Wednesday 20 June 2012 10.55 EDT

Julian Assange's decision to seek political asylum in Ecuador shows how desperate he must feel. We may infer from it that he sees little chance that the European court of human rights would even ask the UK to delay sending him to Sweden, let alone declare that he would face a breach of his human rights in a state bound by the human rights convention.

That should come as little surprise. The Strasbourg court has regularly made it clear that it will issue what are called interim measures under rule 39 only if "the applicant faces a real risk of serious, irreversible harm". Assange apparently fears that Sweden would send him to the United States. He is said to believe he might face a trial there for espionage, although the US has made no announcement to this effect.

Sweden is seeking Assange's extradition from the UK in connection with alleged offences of sexual molestation and rape. If it turned out that this was simply a pretext for handing him over to the Americans, Sweden would risk breaching article 28 of the EU framework decision that forms the basis of the European arrest warrant. The home secretary's consent would be required under section 58 of the Extradition Act 2003 before Sweden could order Assange's extradition to a third state.

That said, Assange can be less sure about what would happen to him after all legal proceedings in Sweden are concluded. But even if the Americans ask for his extradition at that stage, Sweden would not agree to extradite him unless the US undertook that he would not face the death penalty on conviction ...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2012/jun/20/assange-asylum-empty-gesture