Israel Is Walking Into a Trap -- The Atlantic
Last edited Fri Oct 13, 2023, 10:29 AM - Edit history (1)
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Storming into Gaza will fulfill Hamass wish.
By Hussein Ibish
Israel has had control of the land strip from the outside, but not on the inside. Israeli dominion over Gazas coastal waters, airspace, electromagnetic spectrum, and all but one of its crossings, including the only one capable of handling goods, has made Gaza a virtual open-air prisonrun by particularly vicious inmates but surrounded and contained on all sides by the guards.
Hamas evidently decided to destroy that status quo, which was no longer serving its interests. The Islamist group also hopes to seize control of the Palestinian national movement from its secular Fatah rivals, who dominate the Palestinian Authority and, more important, the Palestine Liberation Organization, which is the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people. Hamas has never been a part of the PLO, in large measure because it is unwilling to accept the PLOs treaty agreements with Israel. The most notable among these is the Oslo Accords, which included recognition of Israel by Palestinians but no Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state or a Palestinian right to statehood...
Hamas and its Iranian patrons want to block the diplomatic-normalization agreement that the United States has been brokering between Israel and Saudi Arabia ... Should Israel, the most potent U.S. military partner in the region, and Saudi Arabia, Washingtons most financially powerful and religiously influential one, normalize and build cooperation, Tehran would face an integrated pro-American camp... American partners, including the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan, would effectively ring the Arabian Peninsula, securing control of the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Persian Gulf through their three crucial maritime choke points: the Suez Canal, the Bab el-Mandab Strait, and the Straits of Hormuz. Saudi-Israeli normalization would largely block Irans regional aspirations in the short run and Chinese ambitions in the more distant future...."
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-hamas-war-iran-trap/675628/
Reading various Atlantic analysts can be helpful.
Mister Ed
(5,962 posts)That Hamas' spectacularly savage attack was designed to goad Isreal into exactly the kind of response we are seeing.
HUAJIAO
(2,417 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,659 posts)Thanks for the thread ancianita
Postal Grunt
(220 posts)is that Israel should have read up on the battle for Fallujah in Iraq by now. Going into Gaza City will be like Fallujah on steroids.
ancianita
(36,271 posts)because it's complicated. Though the two wars aren't comparable in that they weren't fought for the same reasons. In Iraq we were the aggressors, since Iraq wasn't the primary cause of 9/11. If we were signatories of the ICC, we'd have been charged with war crimes in Iraq.
As for the Israel-Hamas War, it's likely that Mossad intel have been both led and constrained by this less than competent Netanyahu government.
If, by now, there has come to be a 'whole-of-government' move to wipe out Hamas, bottom-to-top, that will only be the beginning of securing the state of Israel. Because Tel Aviv is now clearer about the regional designs of Iran and Russia (but not necessarily China and their ME allies) to wipe out Israel.
Israel finds out that Hamas was the least of it's enemies? Having both Russia and China allied against you has got to be adrenalin pumping, and, I would think, cause one to pause rather than to simply strike.
those are your words.
I'm pretty sure that if Israel knows that if it has to face forces behind the Hamas spear, it had better align itself with the baddest military commander-in-chief on the planet, regardless of Russia, Iran and China. And it had better get its Tel Aviv intelligence agencies in line with the US agencies and those of Western allies. If this expands regionally, Israel won't be able to fight that alone.
Putin and Iran are the two that wouldn't care if they killed the whole world while going down in a WWIII. China wouldn't be directly warlike, and would likely survive, then post-WWIII, China would likely do business with any country left standing.
slightlv
(2,911 posts)hurry to get their apocalypse on for some reason. I agree with you about China... they've seemed more reticent. But they have issues at home they're trying to deal with... economics like we had back in 2008.
And you're correct in the role the US would play... it would no longer be a "proxy war" at that point. But what worries me is the complete government upset the R's have us in at the moment. Would we even be able to respond? With the House of Rep's unable to even function? With 3 out of 4 services not having their leadership roles filled? And that doesn't even touch on all the other upsets that roll downhill from there in the military. Of course, if one pull orders, one goes. Period. End of discussion. But there's a lot of upset and unfinished business thanks to Tuberville left with the families at home. And all that will still be on the service member's mind as he deploys. And I do believe we will eventually have boots on the ground back in the ME. Now... whether Congress will authorize the money for it, without stripping every penny from every other pot of money in the US, is the question. I mean, Bush did the whole Iraq/Afghanistan venture on credit card, after all... I think Congress should be reminded of that. And the trillions *rump gave the billionaires and trillionaires in this country could "patriotically" be clawed back, IMNSHO, to pay for it all. I mean, these guys all invest in the war machine, they'll make it all back in spades, no doubt. It would sure be nice if a few of them would invest in peace.
ancianita
(36,271 posts)Even on the budget end, Michael Steele predicts rethugs will get the rest of the budget passed with the next House speaker.
Bottom line, Laurence Tribe laid out the existence of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
In it, previous congresses had delegated to the president the authority to declare an international emergency with respect to any unusual and extraordinary threat [from]
outside the United States to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States.
So Biden will have aid money for both Israel and Ukraine.
slightlv
(2,911 posts)Bucky
(54,133 posts)Smash Hamas, by all means, smash them completely.
But Israel needs to pick its fight more carefully, and target its missiles more precisely, but for the love of Pete don't blast your way through buildings full of civilians to get at them.
Israel and Bibi are acting like their only tool is a hammer and every building in Gaza is a nail. But this is like their 4th or 5th or maybe 6th military attack on Gaza in the last decade. The Palestinians there haven't come close to rebuilding the damage from the last round. I just don't see that bombing that many buildings is going to bring them any closer to a solution
ancianita
(36,271 posts)thin. I remember when the 2016 and 2020 primary threads were rough on everyone.
We're going to have to take more frequent breaks from 'breaking news'.
Here's the thing.
International law generally states that nations should treat other nations the way they themselves would like to be treated -- not being biblical, either -- it's from Vettel's classic text on international law.
So in considering how this war started, we as a nation put ourselves in Israel's place, such that what's important to Israel now becomes more understandably important to us. That if we'd want to survive as a nation, and never be attacked by the same group, the same way, ever again, we could understand what Israel's trying to do. I believe that's where Biden is coming from.
The whole hammer and nail thing might be what it looks like, but it's maybe not what you think.
I mean, seriously. There's no neat way to fight urban guerillas, anyway, is there. There are Hamas hiding in nooks and crannies, every single last one of them hiding behind a human shield. So what would WE have to do to be rid of them once and for all.
War is generally blood, sweat, tears, rubble, muck, death, and fog.
A really smart war analyst just explained at length (on Stephanie Ruhle's hour) the ways hostages can and cannot be saved. I hope the video comes up tonight or tomorrow.
But the most enlightening thing he said, imo, is that in this situation, what we're seeing is more likely to be the total clean out of northern Gaza to make it literally into a Demilitarized Zone.
That right there is a long term solution that guarantees that no Gaza missile or ground invasions ever happen again. A demilitarized zone is a badass solution, imo.
Next solution (or goal): he said that the U.N. and U.S. will apply active diplomatic and economic pressure on surrounding Arab nations to take responsibility for the Palestinians, step up and take them in with visas, etc.
In the meantime, Commander-in-Chief Biden has Israel's back to the north by keeping Iran at bay.
Sounds like a solution strategy to me. It will take a while, but it's got to be solid so that a sovereign nation can still exist.
Same goes for Ukraine. And I'll bet they're watching. Having a wide and long demilitarized zone between Ukraine and Russia would be a strategic investment in the West's future.
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