Editorials & Other Articles

Dulcinea

(6,660 posts) Mon Apr 8, 2024, 07:30 AM Apr 8

The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right?

(Politico) Something weird is happening beneath the overall stability of the early 2024 polling — and it’s either a sign of a massive electoral realignment, or that the polls are wrong again.

Polls show former President Donald Trump is ascendant with the youngest bloc of the electorate, even leading President Joe Biden in some surveys, as less-engaged young voters spurn Biden. Meanwhile, Biden is stronger with seniors than he was four years ago, even as his personal image is significantly diminished since he was elected last time.

That would be a generational shift: For decades, Democratic presidential candidates have overwhelmingly won young voters, and Republicans have done the same with the other end of the electorate. Poll after poll is showing that’s flipped this year.

If these changes are real, it would have profound effects on the coalitions both campaigns are building for November. No Republican has won young voters since George H.W. Bush’s landslide victory in 1988, and no Democrat has carried the senior vote since Al Gore hammered Bush’s son, George W. Bush, on Social Security in 2000.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/age-inversion-rocking-2024-election-110000502.html?.tsrc=940%2619908-1202929-20240408-0&segment_id&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20240408-0&bt_user_id=QVSKr6sEa5pO6FaQaHIl8jzpKwtxLxZHGZNqm4WbOqN8wwZwINCAPDV1DJw6VBhd&bt_ts=1712574029060

12 replies

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The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right? (Original Post) Dulcinea Apr 8 OP

Putin and China know that young voters are easier to manipulate. Irish_Dem Apr 8 #1

I wonder whether current polls showing a shift to Trump among younger voters is because of Israel's war on Gaza. Lonestarblue Apr 8 #2

This is indeed the problem. Basic LA Apr 8 #7

I do think that Israel will be a problem for Pres Biden-esp if it continues into riversedge Apr 8 #9

Intergenerational Warfare bucolic_frolic Apr 8 #3

"...or that the polls are wrong again." Think. Again. Apr 8 #4

No they are not right......................... Lovie777 Apr 8 #5

Reality vs perfection as the enemy of the good... i.e old vs young JT45242 Apr 8 #6

Polls are all over the place. shrike3 Apr 8 #8

"...AND AS THEY GO INTO THE BACKSTRETCH, IT'S MAN O'WAR AND SECRETARIAT, NECK AND NECK!..." Aristus Apr 8 #10

As much as I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, lees1975 Apr 8 #11

And the term "massive" seems a little out of place. lees1975 Apr 9 #12

Irish_Dem

(47,324 posts)

1. Putin and China know that young voters are easier to manipulate.

Reply to Dulcinea (Original post)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 07:33 AM

Apr 8

So that is the demographic they are going after now.
Smart but evil.

Lonestarblue

(10,053 posts)

2. I wonder whether current polls showing a shift to Trump among younger voters is because of Israel's war on Gaza.

Reply to Dulcinea (Original post)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 07:39 AM

Apr 8

Even many of us here do not support the continuation arms and aid for Israel, and I think a majority strongly support Israel’s right to exist. To younger people, Israel is just another country, but one that is now murdering thousands of innocent people with the help of US weapons, a supply that has been unending for six months. They blame Biden for continuing to support the madman Netanyahu. So given a choice on a poll between Trump, whom they may actually know little about, and Biden, they choose Trump. This single issue has the potential to sink Biden’s re-election, so I hope his advisers are not just sticking their heads in the sand.

Basic LA

(2,047 posts)

7. This is indeed the problem.

Reply to Lonestarblue (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 08:55 AM

Apr 8

The young by definition are inexperienced in the party histories & struggles and live in the present moment. A present moment where they see the horror of Gazan suffering every day, doomscrolling images of starving weeping women and children. Even if the more aware among them won't vote for Trump, they may refuse to vote at all.

riversedge

(70,286 posts)

9. I do think that Israel will be a problem for Pres Biden-esp if it continues into

Reply to Lonestarblue (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 11:18 AM

Apr 8

next Fall. IMHO.

bucolic_frolic

(43,258 posts)

3. Intergenerational Warfare

Reply to Dulcinea (Original post)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 07:42 AM

Apr 8

What sort of life would Trump deliver for youngsters? Scary thoughts in those polls.

Think. Again.

(8,361 posts)

4. "...or that the polls are wrong again."

Reply to Dulcinea (Original post)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 07:52 AM

Apr 8

Lovie777

(12,321 posts)

5. No they are not right.........................

Reply to Dulcinea (Original post)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 07:53 AM

Apr 8

but if the polls are somewhat factual, the shift of older Americans towards Pres Biden is most welcome.

JT45242

(2,286 posts)

6. Reality vs perfection as the enemy of the good... i.e old vs young

Reply to Dulcinea (Original post)

Mon Apr 8, 2024, 08:20 AM

Apr 8

The more TFG and the rest of his party talk about gutting social security, Medicare, etc, the more seniors will ove towards Biden. The cap on prescription medications for Medicare that kicks in this year will be a BFD to seniors who will realize in the next few months that Joe Biden and Bidenomics actually made their life better -- even if they are not on insulin. Let's say that you are a senior who has $500 a month in drugs needed (not an unreasonable amount these days). In the next coupld of months, you will have reached max levels and no more out of pocket for prescriptions. These seniors will vote Biden

I have two sons 17 (will be 18 by election) and 22. The 22 will defintiely vote for BIden but is unhappy that there isn't a more progressive choice. Right now 17 says he will vote 3rd parth because the Dems are owned by corporations same as the Republcains. Hopefully, he will come around. In polls now, a lot of younger voters will pick their issue of choice : not enough student loan forgiveness, the war in Gaza, whatever, to say they will not vote for Biden. (Not understanding how US and International politics work) and let perfection be the enemy of the good. Hoepfully, when the election gets close they will realize that a vote for RFK, Green Party, or whatever is really just a vote for TFG and vote Dem,