Hamas's Casualty Numbers Games

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Yet in a series of lengthy reports, the Gaza Health Ministry admits that the figures the media treat as authoritative rely in part on reporting from . . . the media. The ministry says its casualty counts include two types of fatalities: those recorded by medical facilities and those reported by “reliable media sources.” In its March 31 report, the ministry attributes 15,070 of the dead, or 45.9%, to news reports. From which outlets? The ministry never says.

Its choices are limited, since Gaza has no independent media. It has networks like al-Aqsa that are extensions of Hamas and other armed factions. It has Al Jazeera, the Qatari state network that describes the atrocities of Oct. 7 as an “incursion” and denies that any “widespread and systematic” sexual assault took place. Western outlets report from Gaza, but they rely on the ministry for their casualty data.

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While acknowledging the issues with its data, the ministry hasn’t made much effort to educate those who rely on its numbers. It distributes its statistical reports via Telegram, a social-media app, and only in Arabic. The ministry’s daily updates don’t disclose underlying issues with the data.

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Over time, media reports have accounted for an ever larger share of the ministry’s data. Of nearly 11,000 fatalities reported between Jan. 1 and March 31, the ministry derived 77.7% from media reports. Adult males account for only 9% of fatalities attributed to the news, even though Gaza’s sex ratio is close to even and more than half its residents are adults.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/hamass-numbers-games-civilian-death-counts-casualty-data-b99140eb?st=h06cmlmq654u3m7&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Mr. Adesnik is director of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.