I’ve been posting long-form updates about COVID risks on Post.news, but alas, that platform is shuttering. So, I will bring my periodic updates about the risks of COVID-19 here to Medium, for those who care.

I thought we might make it through summer without another surge, but based on the rise of new COVID variants, experts predict we’ll see our third surge in nine months in the weeks ahead. It’ll probably be a moderate one (given warmer, summer weather), but we’re likely to see COVID infections (as measured in wastewater) rise 40% or more in the coming month. (A UK surge seems to be a couple of weeks ahead of the US.)

When people say COVID is seasonal, I think they think it’s surging once a year in winter, not every three months. But, we have seen surges of infections caused by new variants in August/September, December/January, and now very likely in April and May.

Why is this happening? Look around at your social feeds. People seem to be in a competition for who can most frequently be in the most crowded spaces. Pretending things are as safe as they were in 2019 is leading to higher transmission, which feeds more viral mutation. There is still a chance a new and more dangerous COVID variant could develop, and if it does, it’ll be our fault because so many are doing absolutely nothing to decrease personal or collective risks.