Kavanaugh says ‘most people’ now revere the Nixon pardon. Not so fast.

Analysis by Aaron Blake
Staff writer
April 25, 2024 at 5:15 p.m. EDT



Then-President Richard Nixon shows off Tim, his 6-month-old Irish Setter, in 1969 as then-Vice President Gerald Ford looks on. (Associated Press)

President Richard Nixon shows off Tim, his 6-month-old Irish setter, in 1969 as Gerald Ford, at the time the House minority leader, looks on. (Associated Press)

It appears unlikely that the Supreme Court will grant Donald Trump the full immunity he claims he’s entitled to as a former president, despite his four indictments. ... But the court’s conservative justices on Thursday appeared receptive to the idea that a future president might need more limited forms of immunity to carry out their duties and not have to worry about politically motivated prosecutions — in a way that could further delay Trump’s trials.

One of the justices’ attempts to explore the practical considerations, though, raised eyebrows. Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh invoked Gerald Ford’s 50-year-old pardon of Richard Nixon, while suggesting that perhaps presidents need to be somewhat insulated. ... “How about — I think it came up before — President Ford’s pardon?” Kavanaugh asked. “Very controversial in the moment — hugely unpopular, probably why he lost in ’76. Now looked upon as one of the better decisions in presidential history, I think, by most people. ... “If [Ford is] thinking about, ‘Well if I grant this pardon to Richard Nixon, could I be investigated myself for obstruction of justice on the theory that I’m interfering with the investigation of Richard Nixon?’ ”

{snip}

Kavanaugh is right that the pardon might well have cost Ford the 1976 election, and also that public opinion warmed to the decision over the years. Gallup polling showed support for the pardon going from 38 percent shortly before he offered it to 35 percent in 1976, but up to 54 percent by 1986. ... A Washington Post/ABC News poll tested the decision again in 2002 and found even stronger support: 59 percent of Americans said Ford had done the right thing, while 32 percent said he had done the wrong thing — a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

But more recent polling suggests that’s not really the case anymore. The pollster YouGov asked such questions in both 2014 and 2018, and Americans were actually about evenly split. ... In the 2014 poll, 34 percent said Ford should have pardoned Nixon, but 32 percent said he shouldn’t have. The 2018 poll — notably conducted during Trump’s presidency and after Trump had talked about pardoning himself — showed nearly 4 in 10 both approved of and disapproved of the Nixon pardon. ... That latter poll also, notably, showed just 15 percent “strongly” approved. It’s a far cry from “most people” regarding it as “one of the better decisions in presidential history.” ... Perhaps Kavanaugh was referring to scholars, some of whom have adopted a more positive view of the pardon in the intervening decades.

{snip}

CORRECTION
A previous version of the photo caption with this article incorrectly identified Gerald Ford as vice president in 1969. At the time, he was House minority leader.

By Aaron Blake
Aaron Blake is senior political reporter, writing for The Fix. A Minnesota native, he has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and The Hill newspaper. Twitter https://twitter.com/aaronblake