Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumWhat To Expect In The Democratic Primaries In Kentucky And Oregon
From 538's Harry Enten. I'm hoping that results for Hillary will be better than this, but a dose of reality won't hurt. The consensus is that whatever happens tonight will still not change the dynamics of this primary and Hillary will ultimately be the Dem nominee.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-expect-in-the-democratic-primaries-in-kentucky-and-oregon/
Kentucky doesnt line up particularly well for either candidate demographically. My colleague Nate Silvers demographic model, released in late April, projects that Clinton will win the state by about 2 percentage points. Why? In the last general election with an exit poll in every state (2008), whites made up about 75 percent of Barack Obama voters in Kentucky. Thats good but not great news for Sanders, who has done better with white voters than nonwhite voters. Blacks, meanwhile, made up about 25 percent. What could turn the tide for Clinton is that Kentucky is a closed primary, which means only registered Democrats can vote. Sanders has done better among unaffiliated voters in open primaries. Theres been limited polling in Kentucky, but the last poll released there (in early March) had Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points.
Oregon is different. Nates demographic model gives Sanders an edge of about 15 percentage points. Thats because whites made up about 90 percent of Obama voters in the 2008 general election. Keep in mind too that Sanders won next door in the Washington caucuses in March by about 45 percentage points. Clinton is expected to do better in Oregon because, unlike Washington, Oregon is a primary and is closed to non-Democrats. I should note that the only two polls taken this year, including one taken this month, have shown Clinton ahead, so its possible that shell pull it out.
Her Sister
(6,444 posts)http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-expect-in-the-democratic-primaries-in-kentucky-and-oregon/
BlueMTexpat
(15,376 posts)for BOTH states and could possibly exceed them.
Right now, per some counts, her total delegates (pledged and unpledged) = 2,291 and we're still waiting for the vote-counting to finish in OR! That's only 92 delegates short of the nomination - at a maximum.
YEESSSSS!!!
texstad79
(115 posts)these states is really not relevant as long its not a landslide. The key point is that after this round there will be fewer states left to make up ground. Hillary is running out the clock at this point.
wisteria
(19,581 posts)It would be stop the momentum bs from the Sander's people.
kstewart33
(6,551 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,376 posts)for Clinton (VERY close result) and Oregon for Sanders.
Now we're just waiting to see the size of the margin in OR. Right now, it's only seven percentage points. If that holds, Bernie essentially loses. As of now, Hillary has met her 538 delegate targets (27 in KY and 24 in OR) and she could possibly exceed them. Fingers crossed!
Our girl is doing just GREAT!