Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumWhy the Republicans will have a very difficult time against Ms Clinton
Last edited Mon Jun 15, 2015, 10:02 AM - Edit history (1)
***I realize this is HRC Forum and I am supporting Sanders. But, I am curious what people here think of my thoughts/assessment of Ms Clinton vs the Republicans.
I chose your forum because well... you guys probably know the most about her and you support her. If I posted this elsewhere it would probably be assailed ruthlessly
I do not dislike Ms Clinton and I will vote for her if she is the nominee.
All I ask is an honest assessment of my few points I realize there are more reasons that can be given. ***
As I've said before, in politics, 3 weeks is an eternity, so a lot can happen between now and a year from now.
That being said, the Republicans have a serious problem not just with the candidates running in their primary, but how to derail Ms Clinton?
Ms. Clinton has been in the national spotlight for two decades. Most voters have already formed an opinion on her, an opinion that is highly unlikely to change no matter what.
My guess is (and there's nothing scientific to it) that 40% of those that will vote, will vote for her no matter what. That about 1/3 will never vote for her even if she saved their child from a burning building (they'd probably accuse her of having started the fire as a publicity stunt or because of Benghazi)
That leaves roughly a quarter who will likely wait and see what happens over the next year, or are waiting to see who the Republican nominee is and that's where the problem for the Republicans lay, their candidate will be the one who gets the most scrutiny from the voters. It is not because of the liberal press, or any such rubbish, but because their candidate will be less known to most voters.
A presidential election where the focus is on Walker 'Wisconsin Dingus', Santorum 'I say stupid stuff and don't realize it', Jeb 'I'm just like George unless you don't like him, then I am my own man' and the rest of that rot will be the one people will be looking at, not as much Ms Clinton.
It provides her campaign with the opportunity to define the one who didn't lose the primary from a group of people who more closely resemble the rejects from the auditions for 'House of 1,000 Corpses' because they were just too weird and made Rob Zombie squeamish.
But, I also recognize the advantage of running as the better known candidate.
When Jerry Brown ran for re-election in '78, he was quick to define his opponent as quickly and as negatively as possible. Alan Cranston did the same thing when he ran against Ed Zschau. Obama did that against rMoney, and history is full of examples dating back to the early 1800's.
While it is true, she is not the incumbent, she is certainly has the recognition of an incumbent and that will likely be one of her biggest strengths.
Her other strength will be, that things like the Iraq War vote is not something that the Republicans, except for Rand Paul, can use because they all support the invasion.
Am curious what you all think
DetlefK
(16,423 posts)rpannier
(24,353 posts)But I've received 3 e-mails from James Carville (whom I like a lot) on behalf of Ms. Clinton and all 3 e-mails said Mrs. Clinton.
So, unless she's changed and hasn't told him, a member of her campaign staff, I will continue to use Ms. Clinton until she says otherwise
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)I think closer to 60% will vote for Clinton even those here in my red State of Kentucky love her. I see her taking Kentucky. Bill did and I think Hillary will too. I don't think Bernie would be the better president and not because he doesn't have good ideas, but because he has no way to implement those ideas. I think he offers pipe dreams. I have no problem with pipe dreams except they aren't real. He focuses on economic issues to the exclusion of all others as though you can just give people money and all the problems go away. Life isn't like that. He believes in "trickle down" justice and it does not work that way. I don't care that Bernie marched with MLK and I don't care how he has voted in the past on social issues. I don't care what he says on his site. I want to hear him scream about womens rights and LGBT rights at town halls and rallys. I want to hear him talk about mass incarcerations of AA people. When I see him on TV ranting and raving about "breaking up the big banks" and "taxing the rich" and "taking money from the rich" and "gutting Wall Street" I turn him right off. This is one of the reasons he can't get much past that 12% mark. People want more and they aren't getting it from him.
rpannier
(24,353 posts)I'm not sure she will get 60% of the popular vote overall
I think there's too much reflexive voting out there
But, I've been wrong and would gladly be wrong about that
I think her final % will be partially determined by who the republican nominee is
Ted Cruz, Dr. Carson, Santorum, Fiorina and a few others in that group would likely just tank the party up and down the line, even if the nominee were me
Bush... I think the name is still toxic whereas the Clinton name is not
Rand Paul attracts attention for being anti-war and anti-spying. But, his positions on other issues also attract a lot of negative attention. I think his forming his own medical association would make fence sitters wonder why he would do that
I just don't see anyone out there on the Republican horizon that can challenge her
And I said in my above post, it's going to be difficult to find an issue to surprise the voters and turn them off because her positions on just about everything have been vetted (and lied about) by pundits, teleprompter readers, that ass-circus dick moronis, faux spews and so on.
If she gets the nomination, I think it would take some gigantic revelation, akin to her being a freeway sniper or part of the Lindbergh kidnapping for the republicans to derail her
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)You suppose those two things can be connected to Ben Gawzi?
rpannier
(24,353 posts)especially tucker bow tie
on a personal note. Wish you and your side in the primary the best.
I look forward to the primaries and caucuses next year.
I have no serious issue with HRC and will support her if she gets the nomination
Hope you make it out to one or more of her rallies
I'd like to make a Sanders rally, but I am an overseas voter, so I'll likely not have that opportunity
Take care
sheshe2
(84,100 posts)MarianJack
(10,237 posts)The negative campaign from the Republican/teabagge party ( let's face it, it IS coming) will boil down to this.
Like Willard in 2012, they're going to be SO negative with the same old crap that they'll be too ranges STOOPID to realize has become, to the public, more of the same white noise!
BTW, if Bernie DOES win the nomination, I'll happily support him!
PEACE!
William769
(55,151 posts)You chose to post this in the Hillary Group and that I have no problem with because of your stated reasons anywhere else on DU and you would be swarmed.
With that said, I do not appreciate paragraph #4 and I wish you would consider editing it out. As you said about what would happen anywhere else on DU, this is a safe have Group to get away from all the bullshit even as subliminal as it may be. I think you have a pretty good idea of what I am talking about.
rpannier
(24,353 posts)Your group, your forum.
I have no desire to cause a disturbance
Hope I eliminated the correct part
William769
(55,151 posts)rpannier
(24,353 posts)as i said, i have nothing against her
Have a nice day
Hope you make a few of her rallies
William769
(55,151 posts)Unfortunately I will have to wait till she comes to Florida (which won't be for awhile).
Hope you make it to some of your candidates also.