Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumThe Wet-Bulb Bottleneck; No, We Won't "Adapt", And Neither Will Lot Of Other Life Forms
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And it doesnt get any better after 2050. But forecasts about the disintegration of society are social and political speculations and have nothing to do with mass extinctions. Huber is more interested in the hard limits of biology. He wants to know when humans themselves will actually start to disintegrate. His 2010 paper on the subject was inspired by a chance meeting with a colleague.
I presented a paper at a conference about how hot tropical temperatures were in the geological past and [University of New South Wales climate scientist] Steve Sherwood was in the audience. He heard my talk and he started asking himself the very basic question: How hot and humid can it get before things start dying? It was literally just an order of magnitude kind of question. I guess he thought about it and realised that he didnt know the answer and wasnt sure anyone else did either
Our paper really wasnt motivated by the future climate per se, because when we started we didnt know if there was any kind of realistic future climate state that would fall within this habitability limit. When we started, it was just like, We dont know. Maybe you have to go to, like, 50C global mean temperature. Then we ran a whole set of model results and it was rather alarming to us.
Sherwood and Huber calculated their temperature thresholds using the so-called wet-bulb temperature, which basically measures how much you can cool off at a given temperature. If humidity is high, for instance, things like sweat and wind are less effective at cooling you down and the wet-bulb temperature accounts for this. If you take a meteorology class, the wet-bulb temperature is calculated by basically taking a glass thermometer, putting it in a tight wet sock and swinging it around your head, he said. So when you assume that this temperature limit applies to a human, youre really kind of imagining a gale force wind, blowing on a naked human being, whos doused in water, and theres no sunlight, and theyre immobile and actually not doing anything other than basal metabolism.
Today, the most common maximums for wet-bulb temperatures around the world are 26C to 27C. Wet-bulb temperatures of 35C or higher are lethal to humanity. Above this limit, it is impossible for humans to dissipate the heat they generate indefinitely and they die of overheating in a matter of hours, no matter how hard they try to cool off. So we were trying to get across the point that physiology and adaptation and these other things will have nothing to do with this limit. Its the easy-bake oven limit, he said. You cook yourself, very slowly. What that means is that this limit is likely far too generous for human survivability.
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/sep/09/this-is-how-your-world-could-end-climate-change-global-warming
eppur_se_muova
(36,317 posts)hatrack
(59,602 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,412 posts)mackdaddy
(1,530 posts)This is an interesting article, but it mostly just concentrates on the environmental temperature and humidity that people can exist.
An important point was that wet bulb temperatures are the measured with a thermometer bulb in literally a wet sock as swung through the air. And that people are not wet socks, but working moving beings, internally generating heat, not in a constant wind.
But in addition to this it does not discuss much about the loss of the total HABITAT for humans. The total environment, water, temperature extremes, rain/drought, insects/diseases, fires, and the ability to grow and store FOOD.
This story also still lengthens out the time frame of climate change to decades. Very few even mention the possibility of an abrupt warming from the Arctic melting.
NickB79
(19,298 posts)I'm 37; my family typically lives into their 90's, so I figure I have until 2060 or so.
I'll be growing fucking palm trees on my land. It's no joke now.