Environment & Energy
Related: About this forum'Fossil fuels are the new whale oil', says environmentalist Amory Lovins
The energy expert and physicist describes his vision of how the world can attain a green energy future by 2050
Amory B. Lovins is fond of referring to the Rocky Mountain Institute, where he serves as chairman and chief scientist, as a "think and do" tank, and it's clear that to Lovins the doing is every bit as important as the thinking. Hardly lacking in confidence or ambition, Lovins in conjunction with his colleagues at the institute has published Reinventing Fire, his step-by-step blueprint for how to transition to a renewable energy economy by mid-century.
Impressive in both its scope and detail Lovins discusses everything from how to redesign heavy trucks to make them more fuel efficient to ways to change factory pipes to conserve energy the book lays out a plan for the U.S. to achieve the following by 2050: cars completely powered by hydrogen fuel cells, electricity, and biofuels; 84 percent of trucks and airplanes running on biomass fuels; 80 percent of the nation's electricity produced by renewable power; $5 trillion in savings; and an economy that has grown by 158 percent.
In an interview with Yale Environment 360 senior editor Fen Montaigne, Lovins discusses how business and society can pull off this transformation even if the U.S. Congress keeps failing to act, why climate change need not even enter the discussion, and why the oil industry will ultimately forego fossil fuels and jump aboard the green bandwagon. "One system is dying and others are struggling to be born," says Lovins. "It's a very exciting time."...
<Interview follows>
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/21/fossil-fuels-whale-oil
Nuclear proponents always attack Lovins because his writings in the 1970's revealed that nuclear power had profound problems associated with its use. Since then, they attempt to portray him as a supporter of fossil fuels because he works with all comers, including fossil fuel companies, to reduce energy consumption and effect a change to a distributed renewable grid. His work with WalMart, for example, is causing an industry revolution in the energy efficiency of long haul trucking and is expected to reduced petroleum consumption about 6% in the US.
Expect such balderdash anytime he is discussed. Revealing the silliness of their claim is as easy as reading anything that he writes - he has been working against climate change since the 1970s and has arguably done more to reduce carbon emissions than any other singe person.
madokie
(51,076 posts)So Lovins gets a lot of bashing but no one in their right mind can look at him and see a shill for the fossil fuel industry even though its hardly a day goes by that doesn't happen here. We're in a big hole and nuclear energy is not going to get us out of it, rather it takes us further down the hole of an uninhabitable planet.
I would say that Lovins has done more to reduce the use of fossil fuels than any one man in history, period.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)He was writing about the need to address it in the early 70s, long before anyone else I know of was making it an issue.
Here is another of his papers:
Soft Energy Paths for the 21st Century
AUTHOR: Lovins, Amory
DOCUMENT ID: E11-09
YEAR: 2011
DOCUMENT TYPE: Journal or Magazine Article
PUBLISHER: RMI
Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked Amory Lovins to outline his reaction to the Fukushima disaster and his suggestions for Japanese and U.S. energy policy for its house magazine Gaiko (Diplomacy). An abridged version was published 30 July 2011 in Japanese and is cited in this unabridged English version. It's a timely contribution to the rapidly growing movement in Japan to accelerate the strategic shift from nuclear power to efficiency and renewables, as Germany is already doingan approach consistent with sound economics and with RMI's U.S. findings in Reinventing Fire. The abridged version of the article is available at http://www.gaiko-web.jp/ in Japanese.
Download 146KB
http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library/2011-09_GaikoSoftEnergyPaths
madokie
(51,076 posts)He's been ahead of the curve ever since I first read about him years ago. Shortly after having my eyes opened by VN.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)Recently, I visited the Mercer Museum.
One of the exhibits showed the evolution of lamp technology, how each new fuel required a redesign of lamps, since the new fuel burned differently. Whale oil was simply one step in the progression from olive oil to petroleum-derived lamp oils.
Todays lamps burn electrons, but our first electric lamps were terribly inefficient. New technologies allow us to light our homes much more efficiently, and tomorrows technologies will be still more efficient.
Similarly, our initial attempts to power machines by burning stuff were horribly inefficient. We didnt worry much about it, because fuels seemed plentiful (just as at one time, the whales seemed plentiful.) Todays technologies are more efficient, and tomorrows will be still more efficient.
Just as we continue to learn how best to use electricity to light our homes, we will continue to learn to make better use of electricity (and electrofuels) to power our machines.
BTW: As long as youre reveling in Amory Lovins visions
http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library/E03-05_TwentyHydrogenMyths
[font size=3]AUTHOR: Lovins, Amory
DOCUMENT ID: E03-05
YEAR: 2003
DOCUMENT TYPE: Report or White Paper
PUBLISHER: RMI
This peer-reviewed white paper offers both lay and technical readers a documented primer on basic hydrogen facts, weighs competing opinions, and corrects twenty widespread misconceptions. Some of these include the following: a hydrogen industry would need to be developed from scratch; hydrogen is too dangerous for common use; making hydrogen uses more energy than it yields; we lack a mechanism to store hydrogen in cars; and hydrogen is too expensive to compete with gasoline. This paper explains why the rapidly growing engagement of business, civil society, and government in devising and achieving a transition to a hydrogen economy is warranted and, if properly done, could yield important national and global benefits.
http://www.rmi.org/cms/Download.aspx?id=5162&file=E03-05_20HydrogenMyths.pdf&title=Twenty+Hydrogen+Myths
[/font][/font]
kristopher
(29,798 posts)The development of lithium batteries has changed the equation for personal transportation use. If the choice is gasoline or hydrogen fuel cells - as it was in 2003 when the paper was written - then hydrogen is the way to go. If the choice is gasoline, HFCs, or 'lithium or better' battery electric, then battery electric is the way to go.
There is a definite role for fuel cells, but personal transportation isn't it.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)Lithium ion batteries are a tremendous improvement over NiCads, but notice the order in the OP:
Impressive in both its scope and detail Lovins discusses everything from how to redesign heavy trucks to make them more fuel efficient to ways to change factory pipes to conserve energy the book lays out a plan for the U.S. to achieve the following by 2050: cars completely powered by hydrogen fuel cells, electricity, and biofuels; 84 percent of trucks and airplanes running on biomass fuels; 80 percent of the nation's electricity produced by renewable power; $5 trillion in savings; and an economy that has grown by 158 percent.
Currently, I would say that BEVs (like the LEAF) are most practical as city cars (assuming that the owner has a garage where the car can be charged.)
Nederland
(9,976 posts)This is simply not true. The first commercial lithium-ion battery was produced by Sony in 1991 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery#History). The price and performance of these batteries improved steadily over the following decade, and it didn't take a genius to see where things were going. By 2003 many people foresaw how Li-Ion batteries would be the choice of the future--Lovins was just not one of them.
TheWraith
(24,331 posts)He takes money from companies like BP and Royal Dutch Shell in order to present an "environmentally friendly" face who says we don't need to worry about actually changing our forms of energy, it'll just happen eventually and everything will be fine 50 years from now. Which is the same story he's been singing since the 1970s, kicking the can down the road so that nobody feels the need to actually do anything RIGHT NOW.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)What economic forces get a nuclear plant built where it will shut down a coal plant?
joshcryer
(62,287 posts)"society can pull off this transformation even if the US Congress keeps failing to act"
This guy calls himself an environmentalist?
Fucking bullshit. The capitalist market has no intention of transforming, it has to do so through regulations. Even technological changes won't do it on a planet with 7 billion people, most of whom are highly impoverished and willing to use older (fossil fuel) technology to empower themselves.
"We" might transition to more renewables.
The rest of the world will buy the fossil reserves that we do have left.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)First, you haven't read the paper by Lovins, you've only scanned it for quotes you think are inflammatory. The only thing they do, however, is to demonstrate how little you understand both the problem and the elements we MUST work with to find a solution.
Second, by exploiting the characteristics of noncarbon systems that make them systemically less expensive than fossil fuels, we ensure that we solve not only oour problems, but the global problem as well. Why would someone choose fossil fuels if the alternatives are easier to access and less expensive?
joshcryer
(62,287 posts)The trajectory is not as Lovin's envisions. For every bit of carbon reduction in western states, there is double carbon exploitation in the developing world. I might read his greenwashing screed when I can find it for free, but I'm not giving one penny to Lovin's when all evidence for the trajectory of carbon fuel exploitation is to the contrary.
NickB79
(19,301 posts)Or whale oil being integral to every facet of the world economy.
I find his analogy lacking, because it implies the scale of the transition is somehow similar.
Nihil
(13,508 posts)... (not to mention demands per person) since then.
Mind you, I'm sure that it is remains profitable for his analogy to be lacking,
not just for his sponsors but so that he can put out yet another "revised"
version in another book a few more years down the line.
No-one here is saying Lovins is stupid ...
madokie
(51,076 posts)Mind you, I'm sure that it is remains profitable for his analogy to be lacking,
not just for his sponsors but so that he can put out yet another "revised"
version in another book a few more years down the line.
Peace
Nihil
(13,508 posts)Have a good weekend!
madokie
(51,076 posts)and give Lovins being a tool a rest.
Peace
txlibdem
(6,183 posts)It's wrong for the USA and it's wrong for the world.
If we shut down all of the nuclear reactors in the world the only thing that would accomplish is to vastly increase the use of coal and building of new coal power plants.
That is why I say the anti-nuclear cultists are killing the planet; they are directly responsible for thousands of coal plants being built worldwide and the planet killing pollution that each of them emits. What we need to do is to build Generation 4 nuclear plants and close down the old nuke plants while at the same time embarking on a massive build-out of solar, wind, energy storage, geothermal power plants, tidal and wave power as well as every possible energy efficiency improvement technology like electric vehicles, LED lighting, better insulated buildings, geothermal heating and cooling for residential and commercial buildings, and passive solar building techniques that can be added to existing structures and designed into new construction. These few changes would reduce our energy usage so we will need to build fewer renewable energy generating plants to meet our needs than would otherwise be needed.
Electric vehicles, even if powered by 100% coal-generated electricity are still less polluting than the vehicles on the road today. There are no places in the US which rely 100% on coal for their electricity so it's a moot point. Electric vehicles are better for 90% of Americans (those who drive more than 100 miles per day will have to wait till 2020 to buy an EV car or truck with the mileage capabilities they need at a reasonable cost). For the rest of us, the Leaf and Volt can both be leased (15,000 mile lease) for under $400 a month (which was the payment for our gas guzzler till we paid it off). Don't be fooled by the tv ads for car leases that stick it to you with a low-miles lease: they offer a cheaper monthly payment but they'll ream you at the end of the lease with mileage charges.
I just bought my 10th LED light bulb I'm slowly replacing the old bulbs, buy an LED bulb once every 1 or 2 months - when I see a sale especially). LED light bulbs use 80% less energy than incandescent bulbs and even a little less energy than CFL's (my CFL's use about 13 to 15 watts and 12.5 watts is the highest wattage LED bulb I've got, the most recent purchase was for a 10 watt LED bulb that puts out more light than a 60 watt (or equivalent) bulb. And no mercury in LED bulbs!
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Spending money on preserving nuclear is a diversion from the task of changing our energy system to one oriented around distributed noncarbon sources.
Nuclear power discourages energy efficiency efforts, discourages renewable deployment, and more firmly entrenches the economics that favor coal.
txlibdem
(6,183 posts)No. Preserving tax benefits and freebies to the fossil fuel industries is a diversion of funds that should be used to more rapidly expand renewable energy sources.
The amount of money spent on nuclear reactors in the past 2 decades is a drop in the bucket compared to the money spent propping up the deadly fossil fuel industries.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)We are talking about spending going forward.
Since the entire point is the shift to a noncarbon economy, the idea that we don't want to spend money on carbon is a given. But we don't want to spend money on nuclear either since it discourages energy efficiency efforts, discourages renewable deployment, and more firmly entrenches the economics that favor coal.