[font face=Serif]Public Release: 1-Jun-2015
[font size=5]New climate stress index model challenges doomsday forecasts for world's coral reefs[/font]

[font size=4]Complex model performs better than common temperature threshold predictions[/font]

Wildlife Conservation Society

[font size=3]Recent forecasts on the impacts of climate change on the world's coral reefs--especially ones generated from oceanic surface temperature data gathered by satellites--paint a grim picture for the future of the "rainforests of the sea."

A newer and more complex model incorporating data from both environmental factors and field observations of coral responses to stress provides a better forecasting tool than the more widely used models and a more positive future for coral reefs, according to a new study by the Wildlife Conservation Society and other groups.

The study authors point out that, according to the climate stress index model first developed in 2008, coral reefs are responding to more factors than temperature and therefore more resilient to rising temperatures. They conclude that global climate change is the greatest global threat to coral reefs but the future of these ecosystems is more varied than predictions from the more widely used "temperature threshold" models.

The paper titled "Regional coral responses to climate disturbances and warming is predicted by multivariate stress model and not temperature threshold metrics" appears in the online edition of Climatic Change. The authors are: Timothy R. McClanahan of the Wildlife Conservation Society; Joseph Maina of the Wildlife Conservation Society and the Australia Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions; and Mebrahtu Ateweberhan of the Wildlife Conservation Society and the University of Warwick.

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