A bleeding wound on the Saudi border: Why Yemen peace talks are unlikely to make progress

As the United Nations tries to get peace talks started in Geneva on Yemen this week, the rebel alliance of Zaydi Shia Houthis and loyalists of former president Ali Abdallah Salih continues to advance on the ground.

This weekend, the Houthis captured the provincial capital of Al Hazm in Al Jawaf province. They already controlled much of the province, but Al Hazm's capture consolidates their control of another large province on the border with Saudi Arabia. Al Jawf is home to a half million Yemenis, many of whom are Zaydi Shia. Al Hazm is ninety miles south of the Saudi border.

The rebels have increasingly taken the war north into Saudi territory. They launched a Scud missile at the large Royal Saudi Air Force base at Khamis Mushayt (a Patriot missile shot it down). Led by elite troops from Salih's former Republican Guard, a rebel force crossed into the Kingdom earlier this month briefly. Katyusha rockets, artillery, and mortars are regularly fired at Saudi towns along the frontier. The Houthis can't occupy Saudi territory, but they can make the border a bleeding wound.

After more than two months of conflict, the rebels have strengthened their grip on most of the country. Only in the far eastern region, in Hadhramaut province, have they failed to advance. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) controls Hadhramaut and its capital at Mukalla, Yemen's fifth largest city. This is AQAP's largest-ever stronghold. It is carrying out terror attacks on Houthi targets from its stronghold.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/06/15-yemen-war-houthis-saudi-arabia-united-nations-riedel