Why the Taliban Isn't Winning in Afghanistan

Last edited Wed Jan 3, 2018, 10:22 PM - Edit history (2)

Foreign Affairs
January 3, 2018
Too Weak for Victory, Too Strong for Defeat
By Seth G. Jones

...deficiency is that the Taliban relies heavily on support from neighboring countries—particularly Pakistan—that are unpopular among many Afghans. Pakistan and its Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the country’s premier spy agency, provide several types of assistance to the Taliban and allied groups such as the Haqqani Network. One is sanctuary for leaders and their families. Pakistani officials have also provided the Taliban with money, training, intelligence, lethal material, and non-lethal material such as communications equipment. Yet only 3.7 percent of Afghans gave a favorable rating to Pakistan, according to a 2016 opinion poll conducted by Gallup and the Broadcasting Board of Governors. At 5.8 percent, more Afghans gave a favorable rating to the Islamic State (ISIS), and many more had a positive view of India, at nearly 62 percent.

Although Western policymakers and academics have harped on the Afghan government’s weaknesses and warned of imminent Taliban victory, the Taliban’s future does not look promising. The group has the ability to continue waging an insurgency for the foreseeable future. But its odds of overthrowing the Afghan government—or even holding urban terrain—are long.

Faced with such limited prospects, Taliban leaders should begin serious peace negotiations with the Afghan government, something they have been reluctant to do, perhaps because they believed they had the upper hand on the battlefield. Pushing the Taliban to begin serious settlement talks—in particular, sitting down with Afghan government representatives—will likely require sustained efforts by the United States and regional partners, especially Pakistan.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2018-01-03/why-taliban-isnt-winning-afghanistan

Good read. Is anyone in IQ45’s White House capable of a sustained effort to bring about a peace? I don’t see it. We don’t even have ambassadors to countries we supply with substantial aid.