24 Apr: Good News. Ukrainians retake the initiative and gain ground - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 791: Apr 24

Today, there is a lot of news from the Liman direction.

Here, Russian forces refused to accept the defeat in the Battle for Terny, and suddenly opened a new vector of attack to prevent the collapse of their bridgehead, and retake the initiative back in their hands. Russian forces tried to make a decisive breakthrough that would enable them to secure a safe crossing of the Zherebets River and thus advance on the town of Liman.

Last time, the Russians conducted a series of massive mechanized attacks in a quest to advance along two parallel tree lines, however, all these attempts were successfully blocked by Ukrainian forces. That is why, in a renovated attempt to find a weak point, Russian forces decided to change the attack vector and try to attack further south, close to Yampolivka.

If we look at the topographic map, you may remember that the Russian forces had to advance along a narrow strip at the foot of an elevated zone controlled by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian forces took advantage of their positions by counterattacking Russians from the heights. In contrast, when it comes to the third vector, Russian forces would be advancing on high ground until they reach the small forest. Although their flanks could theoretically be attacked from, these attacks would have to come from relatively lower areas.

In theory, entrenching in the forest in front of Yampolivka would allow Russians either to directly assault this settlement, which is less than a kilometer away, or combine it with the northernmost vector to provide cover and facilitate advancement along the central vector.

Recently published geolocated images show the entire sequence of this recent attempt at the third attack vector. The combat footage shows at least two tanks and a BMP armored vehicle being detected at a very early stage of the attack.

In the beginning, the footage shows how a BMP-2 vehicle was hit very early on by an FPV drone, which prevented it from proceeding with the attack. The infantrymen who tried to take cover were later hit by cluster munitions and eliminated. In the final images of the video, Ukrainian soldiers can be seen destroying the BMP-2 to prevent its recovery. When it comes to the tanks participating in the attack, even though the first tank received damage in the early stages of the operation, it managed to continue the attack, initiating a rush forward and avoiding several impact attempts. The chase continued for several hundred meters until an FPV drone finally hit and disabled it, and the crew was forced to get out and try to get to shelter.

As for the second tank, the images show a quite unconventional withdrawal attempt, which included the activation of a smoke screen; however, seconds later, it was hit by an FPV drone one more time and destroyed.

According to the latest updates from Russian and Ukrainian sources, this new Russian mechanized attack not only completely failed, but it also allowed Ukrainian forces to completely retake control of the grove east of Yampolivka, which was considered a gray zone up until now.

The reason for the failure of the Russian mechanized assault along the third axis of advance is threefold.

Firstly, the Ukrainian superiority in reconnaissance capabilities and employment of FVP attack drones has become evident. Notably, the map of successful drone attacks in the area by both sides reveals an overwhelming advantage of Ukrainian drone capabilities that has dramatically compromised Russian attempts in recent weeks, particularly in helping to prepare an overwhelming response well in advance.

Secondly, according to various Ukrainian sources, the Ukrainians have been able to rotate their forces in the area with fresh troops in recent weeks. Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi recently announced that rotations had begun in various directions on a widespread level since troops had not been rotated in many places for more than a year. Due to the rotation, Russian troops here had to face much fresher Ukrainian troops.

And thirdly, it appears that Russian forces are beginning to show fatigue both in terms of equipment and personnel resources. The size of this mechanized assault was much smaller than those observed over the last few weeks, which is a clear indicator of exhaustion of the forces. A prominent Russian military blogger recently commented that elements of the Russian 25th Combined Army, which had been attacking the Terny area until now, have been withdrawn. It was unknown whether they had been redeployed...