Foreign Affairs

unhappycamper

(60,364 posts) Mon Jun 1, 2015, 06:42 AM Jun 2015

The Alliance Must Rethink

http://watchingamerica.com/WA/2015/05/30/the-alliance-must-rethink/

The U.S-led coalition will only be able to drive back the terrorist army of the Islamic State if it supplements its military actions politically and economically.

The Alliance Must Rethink
Published in Frankfurter Rundschau (Germany) on 25 May 2015 by Andreas Schwarzkopf [link to original]
Translated from German by Sandra Alexander. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
Posted on May 30, 2015.

The U.S-led coalition can’t stop the advance of the terrorist army of the Islamic State. To be sure, the governments in Washington and Baghdad assert that they will soon drive the Islamic State group out of Ramadi again. But only a few believe that. In the last few days, thousands have fled the western Iraqi city in fear of Islamic State group atrocities and the impending battles. Both are reminiscent of the Kurdish city of Kobani that was almost completely destroyed after the recapture.

But they have also fled because they do not believe the promises of the politicians and military due to the fact that the defeat of the army in Ramadi is a setback for the U.S. and Iraq. For months, the U.S. Air Force and its allies have bombed Islamic State group positions in Iraq. In spite of this, after an offensive lasting only a few days, the jihadi were able to capture the strategically important provincial capital and raise their black flag over all government buildings.

Something similar is true of the Syrian city of Palmyra that the Islamic State group likewise captured, thereby capturing not only a further significant historical site, but now also ruling about half of the civil war-torn country of Syria. If one adds to that the Islamic State group-controlled regions in Iraq, it becomes clear: The Islamic State group has been able to considerably expand its power base in spite of attacks by their opponents.

One doesn’t have to be a prophet to predict that the battles will last a long time and many more people on both sides will have to die. It was clear from the beginning: A revolutionary movement cannot be stopped by military means alone. This is a lesson from other deployments in Afghanistan. At the beginning in the Hindu Kush it was also said that the international alliance would soon defeat the Taliban. Too many dead soldiers and civilians later, it became clear that there was no progress in Afghanistan until the international alliance established governmental, political and economic structures together with the Afghans. These results are still endangered; many consider them to be too small measured against the immense commitment of resources. Yet it becomes clear: The U.S. and its allies will only be able to drive back the Islamic State group if it supplements its military actions politically and economically.

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

The Alliance Must Rethink (Original Post) unhappycamper Jun 2015 OP

Spengler replies: They’ll never believe we’re that stupid bemildred Jun 2015 #1

Here's a bonafide policy wonk State Dept cable: don't mess w/Qatar funding of AQ. They work w/us leveymg Jun 2015 #2

Yep, we are that stupid. bemildred Jun 2015 #3

The system isn't broken, it was purchased. leveymg Jun 2015 #4

Corruption does look a lot like stupid, it's true. bemildred Jun 2015 #5

bemildred

(90,061 posts)

1. Spengler replies: They’ll never believe we’re that stupid

Reply to unhappycamper (Original post)

Mon Jun 1, 2015, 07:06 AM

Jun 2015

Regarding the now infamous 2012 Defense Intelligence Agency report on the prospective rise of ISIS: reading the original, it is clear that it is a low-level, unedited military intelligence assessment rather than a policy paper. It was written by a soldier, in execrable English, rather than a policy wonk. An example:

According to their beliefs, the Jihadists should have an Emir who should be the highest power within their state and would have the right to give Fatwa, as well as having a forensic or a legislator (Moshare’e) who give sthe Fatwa to their life management methods (how they should conduct their lives) as well as deciding on decisions to issue a declaration of Jihad (Holy War).

“Deciding on decisions” — that’s a soldier writing, not an Ivy League-educated staffer in the nether rungs of the West Wing. The big-picture assessment punctuates page after page of unprocessed intelligence. The supposed culpability of the United States in the formation of ISIS is derived from this ssentence on p. 292 of the document:

If the situation unraels there is th epossibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in Eastern Syrua (Hasak and Derzor) and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran).

http://atimes.com/2015/05/spengler-replies-theyll-never-believe-were-that-stupid/

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

2. Here's a bonafide policy wonk State Dept cable: don't mess w/Qatar funding of AQ. They work w/us

Reply to bemildred (Reply #1)

Mon Jun 1, 2015, 07:14 AM

Jun 2015

and Israel against Palestinian Hamas, or at least we want them to. Qatar's military security agencies indeed continued to be the lynchpin of the "Zero Footprint" strategy of Clinton's State Dept and Petraeus' CIA in coordinating the flow of Islamic militants and looted arms flowing from Libya into Syria. These transnational militia groups, of course, became a core of ISIS. It appears that ISIS was the result of an ongoing strategy of cooperation with Qatar, the Saudis and Israel against other targets in the region.

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09STATE131801_a.html
15. (U) Qatar background (S//NF) Department Note: Qatar is one of the four Gulf countries included in the IFTF, and accordingly, the IFTF developed the background information included in para 16 for inclusion in the diplomatic engagement strategy. However, given the current focus of U.S. engagement with the GOQ on terror finance related to Hamas, it would be counter-productive for Embassy Doha to engage the GOQ at this time on disrupting financial support of terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan. (S/NF) Qatar has adopted a largely passive approach to cooperating with the U.S. against terrorist financing. Qatar's overall level of CT cooperation with the U.S. is considered the worst in the region. Al-Qaida, the Taliban, UN-1267 listed LeT, and other terrorist groups exploit Qatar as a fundraising locale. Although Qatar's security services have the capability to deal with direct threats and occasionally have put that capability to use, they have been hesitant to act against known terrorists out of concern for appearing to be aligned with the U.S. and provoking reprisals. (S//NF) Department Note: The Department has received post's comments regarding personnel staffing and the thorough description of the coordination process on terrorist finance issues at Embassy Doha (ref F). Department appreciates post's assessment that GOQ definitions of what constitutes terrorism differs occasionally from those of the USG. Department agrees with post's suggested approach on this issue of engaging with direct discussions with host government officials.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)

3. Yep, we are that stupid.

Reply to leveymg (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 1, 2015, 07:27 AM

Jun 2015

Always fighting the last war, always assuming we can control what happens next, always focused on the wrong problem.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

4. The system isn't broken, it was purchased.

Reply to bemildred (Reply #3)

Mon Jun 1, 2015, 07:43 AM

Jun 2015

This is what happens when policy goes to the highest bidder.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)

5. Corruption does look a lot like stupid, it's true.

Reply to leveymg (Reply #4)

Mon Jun 1, 2015, 07:57 AM

Jun 2015

And since we are fond of believing our own bullshit it is often difficult to disambiguate the two, we shit on the floor and pretend we have bestrewn it with flowers. I generally assume evil and stupid are fraternal twins, but the stupid is what matters, what leads to the sorts of folly we are wallowing in now, you can't be reality-based and situationally aware and do this sort of stupid stuff. (We really have left that "Don't do stupid stuff" slogan far behind have we not, it's like all we are doing is stupid stuff except perhaps normalizing relations with Iran & Cuba finally.)

Reply to this discussion