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trumad

(41,692 posts)
Sun Apr 26, 2015, 09:15 AM Apr 2015

Derby pick time.

Last year I picked the favorite and took a longshot for second. I won some damn good money.

California Chrome and Commanding Curve.

This year---probably the same strategy because I see no horse beating American Pharaoh.

It is supposed to rain all week in Louisville so we may see a race run on slop. If so---AP's win in the Rebel Stakes in slop is a big plus and a good reason to pick him.

So--AP first---my second pick... not sure yet. I may just do a AP-all perfecta pick.

AP's run in the slop:

36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Derby pick time. (Original Post) trumad Apr 2015 OP
My pick for the Derby: In_The_Wind Apr 2015 #1
Nice trumad Apr 2015 #2
American Pharoah across the board.... twogunsid Apr 2015 #3
Good picks. trumad Apr 2015 #4
I think that is a likely scenario... twogunsid Apr 2015 #5
Dortmund reminds me of Point Given hamsterjill Apr 2015 #7
Dortmund is a big monster.... twogunsid Apr 2015 #9
The best of luck to you, as well. hamsterjill Apr 2015 #10
American Pharaoh looks tough to beat so. chelsea0011 Apr 2015 #6
American Pharaoh is absolutely amazing! hamsterjill Apr 2015 #8
And in the winner's position it's FROSTED, the grey..... a kennedy Apr 2015 #11
El Kabeir is a gray, too.... twogunsid Apr 2015 #14
Really? Dang it...... a kennedy Apr 2015 #15
And what's with the ugly colors for Frosted......just blue? a kennedy Apr 2015 #12
Derby Post Positions and Morning Line Odds twogunsid Apr 2015 #13
Ok, I'm changing my pick.....I'm taking BOTH the grey horses..... a kennedy Apr 2015 #16
El Kabeir took a bad step this morning.... twogunsid May 2015 #21
El Kabeir officially scratched.... twogunsid May 2015 #24
Dang it........thanks for the info..... a kennedy May 2015 #26
Sounds like a quarter crack or an abcess.... twogunsid May 2015 #27
Probable pace setter Stanford scratched.... twogunsid Apr 2015 #17
Nice post, twogunsid! KamaAina Apr 2015 #18
Well, now that the post positions have been announced, I'm changing things up chelsea0011 May 2015 #19
14/1---I like the price of Mubtaahji trumad May 2015 #20
I'm really liking Dortmund's chances now..... twogunsid May 2015 #22
Bets are in.... twogunsid May 2015 #23
So, tell me. Who goes to the front with this group? I have no idea. chelsea0011 May 2015 #25
This is just my opinion.... twogunsid May 2015 #28
Upstart Kingofalldems May 2015 #29
I'm a little shocked no one.... twogunsid May 2015 #30
Just put some bucks on AP to win. trumad May 2015 #31
Bets are in...went with the tri keys and Mubtaahij or Dortmund need to win chelsea0011 May 2015 #32
Iternational Star scratched.... twogunsid May 2015 #33
The last two scratches are helping AP... trumad May 2015 #34
Yes, they are.... twogunsid May 2015 #35
How a Racehorse Named Afleet Alex Kept Our Daughter Alex's Legacy Alive twogunsid May 2015 #36

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
3. American Pharoah across the board....
Sun Apr 26, 2015, 12:51 PM
Apr 2015

and American Pharoah w/all exacta. If I had to pick the top 3 finishers I would say:
1. American Pharoah
2. Mubtaahij
3. International Star

And tough guy Dortmund finishing 4th.

 

trumad

(41,692 posts)
4. Good picks.
Sun Apr 26, 2015, 03:10 PM
Apr 2015

I'm researching my second pick ...looking for a horse coming off pack. I think AP will gas the pack and a closer will be the place finisher.

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
5. I think that is a likely scenario...
Sun Apr 26, 2015, 05:54 PM
Apr 2015

Last edited Mon Apr 27, 2015, 06:22 PM - Edit history (1)

I don't see a real early speed horse in the race to set the pace. The Horse that grabs the lead out of the gate could wire the field on an uncontested lead. AP is a talented horse. As talented as we've seen this century.

I also said the same about Point Given and Afleet Alex and they both finished like 5th in the Derby. Best of luck and I hope you pick nothing but winners!

hamsterjill

(15,224 posts)
7. Dortmund reminds me of Point Given
Tue Apr 28, 2015, 03:03 PM
Apr 2015

There's just something about him that reminds me of PG. The way he runs, etc. I'm really not sure.

Point Given lost the Derby because he just didn't feel like running that day. He went on to prove he could "do it" by winning the Preakness and the Belmont. Fabulous horse!!!

Materiality's sire is Afleet Alex. Dortmund's sire is Big Brown.

It's going to be one hard race to call this year. So much talent!

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
9. Dortmund is a big monster....
Tue Apr 28, 2015, 07:41 PM
Apr 2015

...and tough as nails down the stretch; he's a fighter.

I'd love to see Afleet Alex get a Derby winner, he was an underrated horse in my opinion. I'm not sure Materiality is the one to do it though.

My only concern with American Pharoah is his sire. Pioneerof the Nile stopped at 9f. I hope the bottom side of his pedigree gets that final 1/8 for him. He is a talented horse. He'll need racing luck and a good trip and those are hard to come by in a 20 horse field.

Good luck to you on Derby Day.

chelsea0011

(10,115 posts)
6. American Pharaoh looks tough to beat so.
Sun Apr 26, 2015, 06:25 PM
Apr 2015

I'll take 1.International Star, 1.Upstart, and 3.American Pharaoh. I'll look for the front runner to not make it to the finish without getting run down.Should be a good betting Derby. A lot of decent horses in this race.

hamsterjill

(15,224 posts)
8. American Pharaoh is absolutely amazing!
Tue Apr 28, 2015, 03:05 PM
Apr 2015

In the Arkansas Derby, he was just playing with the rest of 'em. Way out there in front, and not one lick of the whip!

But I'm partial to Dortmund for some reason. It's going to be an exciting race on Saturday!

a kennedy

(29,731 posts)
11. And in the winner's position it's FROSTED, the grey.....
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 05:41 PM
Apr 2015

and your winner coming out of the 15th spot....it's FROSTED.

a kennedy

(29,731 posts)
12. And what's with the ugly colors for Frosted......just blue?
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 05:49 PM
Apr 2015
But color of the silks does not a winner make eh?

a kennedy

(29,731 posts)
16. Ok, I'm changing my pick.....I'm taking BOTH the grey horses.....
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 09:51 AM
Apr 2015

ha ha, can't lose that way, and good ol' Calvin, he's bout due for another win at the Derby.

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
21. El Kabeir took a bad step this morning....
Fri May 1, 2015, 01:58 PM
May 2015

He's still entered but I think they will scratch him tomorrow.

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
17. Probable pace setter Stanford scratched....
Thu Apr 30, 2015, 03:46 PM
Apr 2015

so now, who goes to the front? Ocho Ocho Ocho from the 1 hole? Carpe Diem from the 2?

Right now my trifecta looks like the 3, 8, 10,12,18 boxed.

chelsea0011

(10,115 posts)
19. Well, now that the post positions have been announced, I'm changing things up
Fri May 1, 2015, 10:26 AM
May 2015

I thought that Upstart needed to be rated to win but with that post, it ain't happening. I think he will have to push the pace and will get used up by the end. I've come to think the invader, Mubtaahij, will be running at the end and catch the field and American Pharoah. So it is 1. Mubtaahji, 2. American Pharoah, and 3. Carpe Diem

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
22. I'm really liking Dortmund's chances now.....
Fri May 1, 2015, 02:02 PM
May 2015

And Firing Line and International Star to get a piece of it.

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
23. Bets are in....
Fri May 1, 2015, 04:05 PM
May 2015

Extacta Box 2,3,8,10,12,18
Trifecta Box 2,3,8,10,12,18

Good Luck to all and enjoy the races. Safe trips to all the horses and jockeys.

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
28. This is just my opinion....
Fri May 1, 2015, 06:11 PM
May 2015

I feel that Ocho Ocho Ocho, Carpe Diem and Materiality have to try to go to the front. If they don't Dortmund will dictate the pace and try to wire the field. It will be interesting.

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
30. I'm a little shocked no one....
Sat May 2, 2015, 12:23 PM
May 2015

Has picked Itsaknockout as a gimmick bet bet with the fight being tonight.

 

trumad

(41,692 posts)
31. Just put some bucks on AP to win.
Sat May 2, 2015, 02:32 PM
May 2015

Fuck it. I honestly have no feel for this race. Last year I had a closer that I had great confidence in and he didn't let me down. Commanding Curve.

I like betting Tri's with a strong closer. Not seeing it this year.

Plus. .Dortmund looms large literally.

chelsea0011

(10,115 posts)
32. Bets are in...went with the tri keys and Mubtaahij or Dortmund need to win
Sat May 2, 2015, 04:26 PM
May 2015

Like to see Tencendur run a nice race

 

trumad

(41,692 posts)
34. The last two scratches are helping AP...
Sat May 2, 2015, 05:00 PM
May 2015

I guess he will be starting from the 16 hole rather than the 18.

twogunsid

(1,611 posts)
35. Yes, they are....
Sat May 2, 2015, 05:11 PM
May 2015

I'm half tempted to throw a small wager on a Baffert/Lukas/Zito exacta box.

Something strange is going on with the Ramsey horses. They scratched all their horses they have with trainer Chad Brown.

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