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Related: About this forumDerby pick time.
Last year I picked the favorite and took a longshot for second. I won some damn good money.
California Chrome and Commanding Curve.
This year---probably the same strategy because I see no horse beating American Pharaoh.
It is supposed to rain all week in Louisville so we may see a race run on slop. If so---AP's win in the Rebel Stakes in slop is a big plus and a good reason to pick him.
So--AP first---my second pick... not sure yet. I may just do a AP-all perfecta pick.
AP's run in the slop:
In_The_Wind
(72,300 posts)We are going to a Derby party and all the ladies will be wearing one.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)and American Pharoah w/all exacta. If I had to pick the top 3 finishers I would say:
1. American Pharoah
2. Mubtaahij
3. International Star
And tough guy Dortmund finishing 4th.
trumad
(41,692 posts)I'm researching my second pick ...looking for a horse coming off pack. I think AP will gas the pack and a closer will be the place finisher.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)Last edited Mon Apr 27, 2015, 06:22 PM - Edit history (1)
I don't see a real early speed horse in the race to set the pace. The Horse that grabs the lead out of the gate could wire the field on an uncontested lead. AP is a talented horse. As talented as we've seen this century.
I also said the same about Point Given and Afleet Alex and they both finished like 5th in the Derby. Best of luck and I hope you pick nothing but winners!
hamsterjill
(15,224 posts)There's just something about him that reminds me of PG. The way he runs, etc. I'm really not sure.
Point Given lost the Derby because he just didn't feel like running that day. He went on to prove he could "do it" by winning the Preakness and the Belmont. Fabulous horse!!!
Materiality's sire is Afleet Alex. Dortmund's sire is Big Brown.
It's going to be one hard race to call this year. So much talent!
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)...and tough as nails down the stretch; he's a fighter.
I'd love to see Afleet Alex get a Derby winner, he was an underrated horse in my opinion. I'm not sure Materiality is the one to do it though.
My only concern with American Pharoah is his sire. Pioneerof the Nile stopped at 9f. I hope the bottom side of his pedigree gets that final 1/8 for him. He is a talented horse. He'll need racing luck and a good trip and those are hard to come by in a 20 horse field.
Good luck to you on Derby Day.
hamsterjill
(15,224 posts)Here's a great article on Baffert...for when you don't have anything better to do!
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/who-s-the-kentucky-derby-favorite--just-look-in-bob-baffert-s-barn-135342007.html
chelsea0011
(10,115 posts)I'll take 1.International Star, 1.Upstart, and 3.American Pharaoh. I'll look for the front runner to not make it to the finish without getting run down.Should be a good betting Derby. A lot of decent horses in this race.
hamsterjill
(15,224 posts)In the Arkansas Derby, he was just playing with the rest of 'em. Way out there in front, and not one lick of the whip!
But I'm partial to Dortmund for some reason. It's going to be an exciting race on Saturday!
a kennedy
(29,731 posts)and your winner coming out of the 15th spot....it's FROSTED.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)Drew the 7 hole and has Calvin Borel up.
a kennedy
(29,731 posts)and I love Calvin.....shoot, going to check El Kabeir out right now.....
a kennedy
(29,731 posts)twogunsid
(1,611 posts)a kennedy
(29,731 posts)ha ha, can't lose that way, and good ol' Calvin, he's bout due for another win at the Derby.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)He's still entered but I think they will scratch him tomorrow.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)sore left front foot.
a kennedy
(29,731 posts)And I'm back to Frosted.......sad about Calvin's mount.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)he'll be back.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)so now, who goes to the front? Ocho Ocho Ocho from the 1 hole? Carpe Diem from the 2?
Right now my trifecta looks like the 3, 8, 10,12,18 boxed.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)chelsea0011
(10,115 posts)I thought that Upstart needed to be rated to win but with that post, it ain't happening. I think he will have to push the pace and will get used up by the end. I've come to think the invader, Mubtaahij, will be running at the end and catch the field and American Pharoah. So it is 1. Mubtaahji, 2. American Pharoah, and 3. Carpe Diem
trumad
(41,692 posts)Nice tri you have there.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)And Firing Line and International Star to get a piece of it.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)Extacta Box 2,3,8,10,12,18
Trifecta Box 2,3,8,10,12,18
Good Luck to all and enjoy the races. Safe trips to all the horses and jockeys.
chelsea0011
(10,115 posts)twogunsid
(1,611 posts)I feel that Ocho Ocho Ocho, Carpe Diem and Materiality have to try to go to the front. If they don't Dortmund will dictate the pace and try to wire the field. It will be interesting.
Kingofalldems
(38,498 posts)twogunsid
(1,611 posts)Has picked Itsaknockout as a gimmick bet bet with the fight being tonight.
trumad
(41,692 posts)Fuck it. I honestly have no feel for this race. Last year I had a closer that I had great confidence in and he didn't let me down. Commanding Curve.
I like betting Tri's with a strong closer. Not seeing it this year.
Plus. .Dortmund looms large literally.
chelsea0011
(10,115 posts)Like to see Tencendur run a nice race
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)my closer.
trumad
(41,692 posts)I guess he will be starting from the 16 hole rather than the 18.
twogunsid
(1,611 posts)I'm half tempted to throw a small wager on a Baffert/Lukas/Zito exacta box.
Something strange is going on with the Ramsey horses. They scratched all their horses they have with trainer Chad Brown.