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Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 01:44 AM Jan 2018

Always wondered...why DID the NFL get rid of "sudden-death" overtime?

Am I right in thinking the change to the overtime format they have now was meant to reduce the number of upsets and guarantee the playoffs mainly include the teams the league management wants to see there?

Or was there some other reason?

Always though the game was badly harmed by the change.

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Always wondered...why DID the NFL get rid of "sudden-death" overtime? (Original Post) Ken Burch Jan 2018 OP
Because the odds of the team that won the coin toss winning the game LisaM Jan 2018 #1
"A coin toss shouldn't determine the outcome." PJMcK Jan 2018 #11
Because there was too much statistical correlation between 'winning the toss' and mr_lebowski Jan 2018 #2
It was less than that if you went by first possession JonLP24 Jan 2018 #8
I don't really get what you're trying to say ... mr_lebowski Jan 2018 #9
I'm on a phone so I can't type a lot JonLP24 Jan 2018 #10
What does NFL mean? pangaia Jan 2018 #3
Ok, I get that it's a joke. Ken Burch Jan 2018 #6
Ken. I'm on your side..always.. pangaia Jan 2018 #12
Fine. Run along. Ken Burch Jan 2018 #13
I attended a college football game about a decade ago. PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2018 #4
IMO Tie games should continue into the fifth quarter until someone scores. Marcuse Jan 2018 #5
Brett Farce didn't get the ball in OT JonLP24 Jan 2018 #7

LisaM

(27,863 posts)
1. Because the odds of the team that won the coin toss winning the game
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 01:49 AM
Jan 2018

Were too high. Teams basically just had to get into field goal range. I think the modified sudden death is better. A coin toss shouldn't determine the outcome.

 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
2. Because there was too much statistical correlation between 'winning the toss' and
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 01:55 AM
Jan 2018

winning the game.

I forget what the % was but they decades worth of data by the time they changed the rules to a system that would sharply reduce the 'influence' of a random event like a single coin toss. I think was like 55% of the time the team that won the toss won the game, and the stats showed conclusively it was an unearned advantage.

Also, there is still 'sudden death', just not via a field goal by the team that won the toss. They have to get a TD otherwise opponent gets one drive to 'answer' that FG (or get a td and win) in which case it's back to a tie, and the first score of any kind after THAT ... wins the game. Its much more fair, now, reall.

College's system OTOH is quite different. But they changed their rules first and the fact that many liked their change I think prompted the NFL to make their own similar but different change to reduce the impact of 'pure chance'.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
8. It was less than that if you went by first possession
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 05:33 AM
Jan 2018

More often than not teams didn't score on the first possession but all they had to do was move the kick forward which they later did for player safety but also leads to average starting field possession but not anymore with h touchbacks to the 25 yard line. They didn't have to screw it up.

 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
9. I don't really get what you're trying to say ...
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 06:01 AM
Jan 2018

The stats were established over many years, using legitimate statistical methods ... the evidence absolutely bore out a positive level of correlation between 'winning the toss' and 'winning the game'. And they didn't 'want that'. It's really that simple. You say it's 'screwing it up', but in reality WHATEVER rules for OT were constructed, all they ever were was some arbitrary designation of 'how it's best done'.

If the league felt (and I happen to agree) that theyd didn't want a system in place that favored the winner of what was essentially a completely random occurrence (result of a coin flip) as opposed to letting the play on the field decide, they were well within their rights to change the system.

Bottom-line, there's no 'absolute right' way to 'run the overtime'.

But optimally, you'd want it to be done FAIRLY ... and the numbers established by the old system PROVED ... it was 'not fair' ... unless you actually wanted the odds to favor the winner of a friggin' coin toss.

Statistics actually don't lie, at least not when interpreted properly ... and in this case, I believe they were.

I actually think the rules now are EXACTLY ... how they should be. And I bet once we have 20 years of stats on the subject, we'll find that the trend marches closer to 50% wrt the coin flip, vs the number it was at before, which I don't know offhand, but whatever it is, I know it is a statistically significant situation, wherein there's an advantage given to the team that wins the toss. No good comes from rules that set up that situation, that's why they changed it.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
10. I'm on a phone so I can't type a lot
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 07:38 AM
Jan 2018

The years prior it was close to 50-50 I have seen the stats the Cardinals got a defensive TD to win a game in that same post season but it was misleading because teams that won the toss punted got the ball back and won the game were included in that stat. I went into detail of all the games that went into OT in 2009 in the sports forum in 2009.

I'm on a phone and I can't go into detail the ways they have screwed it up even further with 10 minutes a lot more tie games 3-3 and even more with 10 minutes it has gotten ridiculous. All they had to do was move the kickoff up (which they later did) to decrease average starting field position but that is negated by making touchbacks 25 yard line. So many things are changed the game is becoming unrecognizable

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
6. Ok, I get that it's a joke.
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 04:07 AM
Jan 2018

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make it telling it here.

I'm just asking a question I've been casually wondering about for awhile.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,929 posts)
4. I attended a college football game about a decade ago.
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 02:26 AM
Jan 2018

Only the second time I'd ever been to won. It went into overtime, and I was utterly fascinated how it worked, and found it vastly more exciting than the NFL version.

Marcuse

(7,561 posts)
5. IMO Tie games should continue into the fifth quarter until someone scores.
Tue Jan 9, 2018, 02:29 AM
Jan 2018

Same down/distance and exchange end zones.

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