I wonder what that's based on. Did they steal PPP's numbers?

Gingrich's number is really low which is a good sign for Santorum. I wonder when working people will show up to vote and who they will vote for. Dems usually show up later in the day.

Possibly around 4 or 5 pm.

SOme absentees might skew it a bit. I don't know if and when Michigan counts the absentee votes.

he is a fraud

romney had that locked up with like 60 something percent of them.

But this looks fairly good for Santo, this exit apparently included Absentee ballots where Romney had a big lead but he's still performing well.

He does claim that he had the best exit polls for the first five primaries (could be bluster of course).

We shall see!

He could be a dude in a basement making up numbers.

It could be some sort of social engineering or attention whoring.

The local judges usually keep those stashed away for the GOP.

after all it's his home state as he has repeatedly said.

He will spin a loss by looking at the districts he won and saying that the "Real" republicans voted in those districts. THe Santorum robo-call for Dems will be used by Romney to poo-poo a loss. He would do the same for a narrow win.

However, the press will beat him with either a loss or narrow win and Santorum will raise his hands in victory for either.

Juicy, juicy!

The media already turned their backs on him. It's been made clear that if he loses Michigan he might as well leave. And if he doesn't, he'll turn into another Gingrich; which makes him uber worthless.

Some states don't count those absentee ballots for a long time (if at all). If your methodology is sound then you can get a rather good idea using exit polls.

Romney 43 Santorum 42 Paul 10 Gingrich 5

if he can only win his home state by one or two points.

He should be winning by double digits. Anything less than 10 points can be spun as a loss by Santorum. I think he beat the snot out of McCain last cycle in Michigan.

unless it's broken down by congressional district. Michigan awards delegates on a district-by-district basis, so overall vote totals don't really tell us how each candidate is faring. (Of course, that's way too complicated for the media, which will just focus on statewide vote total.) It would be entirely possible for Romney to get fewer overall votes but walk away with nmore delegates.

But, Santorum will spin this as a win even if he gets no delegates.

With Santorum taking the districts in the upper peninsula and the southwest, and Romney taking the districts around Detroit. But even if they split the delegates 15/15, the media narrative will demand a "winner," and that's what we'll hear about.

I see polls before being all over the map.

1st update sorry for the delay

Mitt 44 Santorum 33 Newt 19 Paul 4

Next update at 200 mst

http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/02/28/arizona-exit-polls-arizona-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-arizona-gop-primary-february-28/

Romney 44 Santorum 41 Paul 11 Gingrich 4. 2 things of note 1: The weather is rough in Northern Michigan, but the people who live there are tough and not sure its a factor . 2) The question is how many DEMS crossed over to try and derail Romney’s momentum.



NOTE: The above paragraph is take directly from the blog. Not my words!

44% is too high of a number for Romney. And if he doesn't know how many Dems crossed over, he doesn't know anything.

If Gingrich is doing that badly and Romney is doing that well it's implying that his voters are going to Romney, which doesn't really make any sense.

It will be interesting to see how close he comes to the real numbers.

"Obviously my poll numbers are based on Republican voters my final prediction around 615 EST will take into consideration all last minute voters and how many Dems are estimated to vote"

http://www.billspetrino.com/2012/02/28/michigan-exit-polls-mighigan-exit-polls-2012-updated-exit-polls-michigan-gop-primary-february-28/

Not sure we can make too much out of these numbers.

But apparently he is only counting Republicans.

o yes apparently MSNBCs early exit polls are showing 10% dem turnout.

I suspect thats about 5 points to Santorum.

Id say Santorum has a slight advantage right now, and they know it.

They have been threatening to bring in someone new. We shall see.

The site is dead.

Oh well!

exit polls? Or is there an actual law for it. I actually loved
it a long time ago, when they would be leaked. Drudge was
actually a great source for numbers.

Drudge leaked exit polls leading up to the 2008 election that indicated Obama was going to win in an electoral landslide.

http://www.drudgereportarchives.com/data/2008/11/04/20081104_234838.htm

Well his site it back up and his final exit results are:

Final numbers are Romney 41 Santorum 40 Paul 12 Gingrich 7


Now let's see how close he is.

looking through his site his Missouri exit poll overstated Romney's support by 15%.


He also had Paul winning in Maine.

And Romney only 4 points behind in Minnesota

And Romney winning by 12% in Colorado.

He did ok with Romney in Florida (only a few points overstated) but overstated Newt and understated Santo and Paul.

He did not do the earlier primaries, but his site is pretty much "GO MITT, MITT WILL BE THE NEXT PRES!"

He's overstated Romney support in every state BUT Nevada.

And clearly his methodology puts a finger on the Romney scale.

But, it will be fun to see how close he is.

I mean I know those are harder to exit poll cause of low turnout and what not but that's more then a finger, that's a freaking anvil.