2016 Postmortem

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts) Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:35 PM Feb 2012

Polls underestimated early vote volume, per Nate

Nate Silver Tweet:

AP says Michigan exit poll sample consisted of about 25% early/absentee voters -- higher than most pollsters were assuming.

What this means to me is that Romney will win, since his early voter support percentage was so high...like 60 something % range.

15 replies

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Polls underestimated early vote volume, per Nate (Original Post) Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2012 OP

Wait....just think I read this wrong. It will mean the opposite ? duh, I'm confused. If there Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2012 #1

i think it does mgcgulfcoast Feb 2012 #2

My million dollar assessment too itsrobert Feb 2012 #4

I don't know maybe Romney's advantage there was smaller than in most polls. Mr.Turnip Feb 2012 #3

Yeah, I think that's what it means. Exit polls overestimated Romney's early votes. Drunken Irishman Feb 2012 #5

Or not. Maybe the exit polls are right and the polls were wrong. Drunken Irishman Feb 2012 #6

Well... There are polls, damn polls, and then there are Republicans. madinmaryland Feb 2012 #15

I think the more early votes the better for Romney.. DCBob Feb 2012 #8

Unless the exit polls are overstating the amount of early voters... Drunken Irishman Feb 2012 #10

This means that either turnout was small or that AP overestimates absentees Renew Deal Feb 2012 #7

So, what you're saying is that the winner will either be Romney or Santorum? Drunken Irishman Feb 2012 #11

Yes, I'm going out on a limb on this one. Renew Deal Feb 2012 #13

Nate Silver is walking it back a little. RandySF Feb 2012 #9

He's not walking it back. Renew Deal Feb 2012 #12

Oh . . . Dembearpig Feb 2012 #14

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)

1. Wait....just think I read this wrong. It will mean the opposite ? duh, I'm confused. If there

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Original post)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:37 PM

Feb 2012

are more early voters in the exit polls, and they are predominately Romney supporters, it means Sanitarium is
doing better than expected????

mgcgulfcoast

(1,127 posts)

2. i think it does

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:39 PM

Feb 2012

itsrobert

(14,157 posts)

4. My million dollar assessment too

Reply to mgcgulfcoast (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:42 PM

Feb 2012

thanks

Mr.Turnip

(645 posts)

3. I don't know maybe Romney's advantage there was smaller than in most polls.

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:41 PM

Feb 2012

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

5. Yeah, I think that's what it means. Exit polls overestimated Romney's early votes.

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:49 PM

Feb 2012

So, Santorum is probably running a bit behind in these exit polls.

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

6. Or not. Maybe the exit polls are right and the polls were wrong.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Reply #5)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:50 PM

Feb 2012

Confusing!

madinmaryland

(64,934 posts)

15. Well... There are polls, damn polls, and then there are Republicans.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 09:17 PM

Feb 2012

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

8. I think the more early votes the better for Romney..

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:51 PM

Feb 2012

I think..

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

10. Unless the exit polls are overstating the amount of early voters...

Reply to DCBob (Reply #8)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:52 PM

Feb 2012

It's a guess, though.

Renew Deal

(81,900 posts)

7. This means that either turnout was small or that AP overestimates absentees

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Original post)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:50 PM

Feb 2012

It's either really good news for Romney or Santorum.

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

11. So, what you're saying is that the winner will either be Romney or Santorum?

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #7)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:52 PM

Feb 2012

Renew Deal

(81,900 posts)

13. Yes, I'm going out on a limb on this one.

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Reply #11)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 08:25 PM

Feb 2012

RandySF

(59,828 posts)

9. Nate Silver is walking it back a little.

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Original post)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:51 PM

Feb 2012

Nate Silver ? @fivethirtyeight Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Fact that there are a high number of early voters in the exit polls is NOT necessarily good/bad news for either candidate.

Nate Silver ? @fivethirtyeight Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Very hard for exit polls to know what the "right" number of early voters should be. The 25% is as much an assumption as a data point.

Renew Deal

(81,900 posts)

12. He's not walking it back.

Reply to RandySF (Reply #9)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 07:57 PM

Feb 2012

He's clarifying his point. He's saying that AP's guess of 25% early voters is more than the polls. Someone is wrong. AP or the polls.

Dembearpig

(24 posts)

14. Oh . . .

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Original post)

Tue Feb 28, 2012, 08:31 PM

Feb 2012

now this clarifies everything.

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