2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPutting some numbers on Bernie's path to the nomination
Last edited Sun May 1, 2016, 03:41 PM - Edit history (1)
Because the superdelegates tend to annoy a certain dominant group here at DU, we'll consider ONLY pledged delegates. Here are the numbers Sanders needs from each remaining primary/caucus to pull off a victory. My projections are not random, but follow some guidelines: 1) HRC doesn't win another state; 2) Any primary favoring HRC (IN, CA, NJ) is flipped in favor of Sanders; 3) Sanders will win all other primaries/caucuses by a minimum of 10% with open primaries being 80/20 romps for Sanders. Minor adjustments are made to account for demographics, etc. Here are the % votes for Sanders:
IN: 55%
Guam: 55%
WV: 74%
KY: 55%
OR: 55%
Virgin Islands: 55%
Puerto Rico: 55%
CA: 70%
MT: 82%
NJ: 55%
NM: 64%
ND: 82%
SD: 75%
Wash DC: 55%
If he can meet these metrics (note the blowout in CA currently favoring Clinton), he wins the pledged delegates by 1.
pmorlan1
(2,096 posts)Clinton logo. I preferred the one Barrack showed.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Rather than needing a 65/35 win in CA and a 52/48 win in NJ, he needs 70/30 in CA and 55/45 in NJ.
My bad.
(is there a comedy forum at DU? I don't think so, but I guess you haven't been here very long -- only 8 years. Welcome to DU! )
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)And this thread would fit there ... being that it's a joke.
But I suppose you haven't been here very long either ... only 13 years. Welcome yourself.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)SunSeeker
(51,827 posts)I mean, it is so ludicrous that it is kinda funny.
lamp_shade
(14,853 posts)IamMab
(1,359 posts)ETA:
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)....Sanders will need to get an average of 65% of the delegates in all remaining states. Any time he doesn't get at least 65% of the vote in a state, he will need an even HIGHER average for all the other states.
That means that he will essentially have to win EACH of the remaining states by 30% (65%-35%)
Putting that into perspective, of the 18 states that Sanders has won, he's gotten 65% or more in only 8 of them.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)I was trying to see if Sanders had even a shadow of a chance under the most extreme circumstances. Your approach is a bit more general but every bit as accurate.
George II
(67,782 posts)....easier and easier to figure.
Once Clinton reaches 2026 (which she will), I want to see what they say then. Still a contested convention? HAH!
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Till the bitter end.