2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLet's do this again. Contested convention doesn't mean what you think it means
Last edited Tue May 3, 2016, 02:54 PM - Edit history (1)
Hillary not winning by pledged delegates alone before the convention doesn't mean the nomination process will be contested. It is very simple, a contested convention happens if there isn't a winner on the first ballot, that is it. That is literally how you get to a contested state.
In a two person race, the nomination will be decided on the first ballot. There is no spoiler, there is no splitting the vote among many parties. The supers will overwhelmingly support the pledged delegate leader in a two person race, which means, again, it ends on the first ballot.
If Bernie is not winning after the last primary, he is not going to win, period. Neither will Hillary if the situation is reversed. The race in 2008 was much, much, much, much more competitive and it didn't make a difference--the leader after the last primary was the defacto nominee.
So, stop putting your hopes on a contested convention. It is just not going to happen.
CincyDem
(6,421 posts)Good for them to be contested. Good for us to be clear. I'm hoping the optics of the conventions provide the same kind of different feel between the parties that we got in the early debates when the republicans were measuring hand sizes and talking about Rosie O'Donnell.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)A convention is contested if the existence of two candidates forces a vote. If there has to be a second vote, we call it brokered.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)By telling them that there's a chance the SDs will vote for the candidate with fewer PDs.
He knows damn well this won't happen, and it's hypocritical for a anti-establishment "candidate of the people" to suggest that it should happen.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)If two people are competing for the nomination and both arrive at the convention without having hitting the magic number, it is by definition a contested convention from the moment the convention starts. That is why all of the faux outrage over Bernie Sanders saying yes it would be a contested convention was out of line. The simple meaning of what he said, and he was clear about this, was that Clinton would not have enough pledged delegates and neither would he at the start of the convention.
Rachel Maddow should have explained this clearly, and not with some negative underlying suggestion that Bernie was to trying to derail the convention. This is also one of the reasons why Clinton surrogates keep saying Bernie should drop out. That would enable Hillary to enter the convention as the presumed nominee. No fuss, no muss.
There are ten states that have not voted yet (so it was said yesterday). That is one-fifth of the states. The population of these ten states deserve to have their right to vote. And that is the bottom line.
Sam
moriah
(8,311 posts)And I hope math doesn't discourage Bernie supporters from turning out and speaking out.
If I were in a later state, and a Bernie supporter, even if my vote didn't have a great chance of making him the Nominee, I would remember my vote is still yet another voice for the message and vision that maybe, sadly, the country just isn't ready for yet -- but is still a good one, and will still be historic, and my vote will be one more of milions who are being heard.
Of cou, that's my rationale for voting in the General as a liberal in a red state. My vote may not change my state's overall redness, but every bit of blue says something.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)ProfessorPlum
(11,285 posts)"If Bernie is not winning after the last primary, he is not going to win, period."
This seems fairly clear
"Neither will Hillary if the situation is reversed."
this is not obvious at all. I expect the superdelegates to support her in that case, as well.