2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver: despite polls, Indiana demographics and open primary favor Sanders.
But because of proportional delegates, whatever the outcome is won't make much of a difference in the race.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/indiana-primary-presidential-election-2016/
HARRY ENTEN 6:04 PM
Ive become a broken record this primary season, but let me say it again: its all about delegates. And on the Democratic side, elected delegates are awarded proportionally. That makes it very difficult for one state to change the trajectory of the race. You can see that by doing the math in allocating the 83 delegates up for grabs in Indiana. If Clinton wins in Indiana by 15 percentage points, shell have to win 34 percent of the remaining elected delegates to capture a majority of the elected delegates by the end of the primary season. If Sanders wins Indiana by 15 percentage points, Clinton would need to win 35 percent of the remaining elected delegates to take a majority of the elected delegates by the end of the primary season. Either way, the math wont really change after the Indiana primary on the Democratic side.
SNIP
NATE SILVER
Polls Favor Clinton But Demographics May Favor Sanders In Indiana'
I wish wed published this a little sooner, but our demographic model suggests that Clinton isnt all that safe in Indiana despite polls showing her with a lead over Sanders. In fact, the demographic model we published last week, which called all five states right in the Northeast primaries, would have Sanders winning Indiana by 7 percentage points, since its a predominantly white state holding an open primary.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)So meh.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)If he doesn't win Indiana, it could indicate that some of his support has dried up.
UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)But of course they need a narrative, even if its a false one to keep the ratings going. Again, that doesn't mean I think Sanders should drop out because he shouldn't. He should campaign all the way until the last state votes.