2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLatest Polls & Averages: Bernie OUT-Performs Hillary Against Trump in GE Matchup
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders
Poll Date Sample MoE
Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 4/11 - 5/1 -- -- 52.2 38.8 Sanders +13.4
CNN/ORC 4/28 - 5/1 890 RV 3.5 56 40 Sanders +16
IBD/TIPP 4/22 - 4/28 814 RV 3.5 50 38 Sanders +12
USA Today/Suffolk 4/20 - 4/24 1000 LV 3.0 52 37 Sanders +15
GWU/Battleground 4/17 - 4/20 1000 LV 3.1 50 40 Sanders +10
FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 1021 RV 3.0 53 39 Sanders +14
All General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D) Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 4/11 - 5/1 -- -- 47.3 40.8 Clinton +6.5
CNN/ORC 4/28 - 5/1 890 RV 3.5 54 41 Clinton +13
Rasmussen Reports 4/27 - 4/28 1000 LV 3.0 39 41 Trump +2
IBD/TIPP 4/22 - 4/28 814 RV 3.5 47 40 Clinton +7
USA Today/Suffolk 4/20 - 4/24 1000 LV 3.0 50 39 Clinton +11
GWU/Battleground 4/17 - 4/20 1000 LV 3.1 46 43 Clinton +3
FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 1021 RV 3.0 48 41 Clinton +7
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
hack89
(39,171 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)because, like it or not, the voters are going to make her the nominee. Not much you can do to change that.
amborin
(16,631 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)They will vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates. It will be a first vote victory for Hillary.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)end of story.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)Now that's the end of the story.
hack89
(39,171 posts)He is too far behind
floriduck
(2,262 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)That doesn't mean that their votes will change the outcome.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)She will have enough delegates (pledged + super) to win on the first ballot. That's not a contested convention.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)The imminent Trump nomination threatens to rip the Republican party into three parts. Trump repels both the most conservative Republicans and the most moderate: both socially conservative regular church attenders and pro-Kasich affluent suburbanites, especially women. The most conservative Republicans wont ever vote for Hillary Clinton of course. But they might be induced to stay homeif Clinton does not scare them into rallying to Trump. The most moderate Republicans might well cast a cross party line voteif Clinton can convince them that shes the more responsible steward and manager.
Those have to be exciting possibilities for the Clinton campaign. For a generation, national politics has been polarized into two unified blocs with minimal cross-over. The Trump nomination suddenly makes imaginable an election like 1964 or 1972, in which a divisive nomination by one party propels millions of voters across the aisle to the other. But the way to win a 1964 or 1972-like victory is to move to the center, to position the winning candidate as the safe choice. Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon ran as candidates of peace and order, against destabilizing radicals.
...
Hillary Clinton, amazingly, will actually take longer to clinch her nomination than Trump needed to secure his. Her party may be less divided than the Republican party: 80 percent of Democrats say they can support either Clinton or Sanders. But that unity was gained because Clinton executed a sharp left turnand a left turn sharpest precisely on the issues where Republicans and Democrats most intensely disagree: guns and immigration. If Clinton tries to edge back to the center on those issues in the summer and fall, will she reignite the rebellious mood that elevated Bernie Sanders through the winter and spring?
...
How much room is there in her party to seek a middle path now? Does she even want to walk that middle path? Dont forget that even as she dissented from Obamas foreign policy on the right, as First Lady she was often said to have criticized her husbands domestic policy from the left.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/whats-her-play/481290/
amborin
(16,631 posts)regular Americans
Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)We should nominate the Pope because he has the best national numbers against trump
CountAllVotes
(20,884 posts)We don't need nor want tRump.
HRC is bumping heads with tRump.
Sanders is a clear winner against tRump.
Why vote for anyone BUT Sanders, a clear winner?
hack89
(39,171 posts)Bernie has no reasonable path to the nomination.
amborin
(16,631 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)Really.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Sanders supporters don't want to hear the truth - That those early polls mean nothing, that he hasn't been vetted yet, that the Republican hit machine would tear him apart.
So let's try this - Sanders' hypothetical poll performances against Trump mean absolutely nothing because Sanders will not be the Democratic nominee.
END OF CONVERSATION!!!
amborin
(16,631 posts)recent article; don't have the cite at the moment
amborin
(16,631 posts)davidlynch
(644 posts)It may be that Hillary could beat Trump. But 7% is a big safety valve.
If the Democrats lose to Trump, they lose everything. All of the Hillary supporters lose, including those that were planning for a plumb job in the new Clinton administration.
So, even in the name of self-interest, Hillary supporters have to really really internalize that number. Seven percent.
That 7% might not be necessary after all. You could gamble, and maybe you win.
But ignoring this and clinging to Hillary, for whatever reason, could sink this party and the nation with it.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)That will be the main question for the Sanders campaign post-mortem.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)He gets Yuuuuuge crowds (she gets dozens). He has a never ending money supply. She just ran out and now has to go to Rebpulicans for money. In the twitter war, Bernie supporters did a million and Hillary supporters did about 20,000.
All those votes, . . I attribute to all those election "irregularities".
It is OBVIOUS to anyone looking that Bernie has the enthusiasm and popular support, but when you don't count their votes. . . duh!
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)If the 2012 presidential election were held today, a new poll finds that Republican nominee Mitt Romney would top President Obama in a popular vote.
The CNN-ORC International poll, however, puts former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead of Romney by double digits in the hypothetical match.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/213441-poll-romney-bests-obama-falls-to-clinton
How'd that work out for Romney? Also, Hillary wasn't even running.
Hypothetical matchups are just that, hypothetical.
TheBlackAdder
(28,262 posts).
These early polls skew the late dynamics of the GOP, how they solidify and close ranks better than Dems do.
.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)That's democracy.
Let's hope Hillary can pull this off.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Cal33
(7,018 posts)dirty tricks from the DNC since a year ago, as well as the 90% Republican-owned
Main Stream Media. Bernie has always beaten Hillary in national polls comparing
the two of them to the Republicans.
The majority of Americans prefer Bernie to Hillary, by wide margins - and in every
national poll - every time.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)Cal33
(7,018 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)things don't go your way.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)You people seem incapable of comparing apples to apples. Just go somewhere else as I'm over this OP.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)realmirage
(2,117 posts)Check the national polls, Hillary is solidifying
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts).
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Tarc
(10,478 posts)and no Republican has paid the slightest bit of attention to Sanders. If he were the nominee, those lofty numbers would drop like a stone once they got their opposition research machine churning.
You and your Bernie friends have been told this for months, yet it doesn't seem to penetrate the cloud.
senz
(11,945 posts)Beat Trump. Vote Bernie.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)He has to win the DNC nomination, Hillary needs about 153 more delegates to be the DNC nominee.