2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew California poll: Hillary up 49-39
2016 California Democratic Presidential Primary
April 28-May 1, 2016
1,617 Democratic likely voters
Hillary Clinton 49%
Bernie Sanders 39%
Undecided 12%
http://capweekly.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Toplines-5-3.pdf
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June 7 will be big day for Hillary with big wins in CA, NJ and NM.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)kcjohn1
(751 posts)72% of the voters will be 45+.
Indiana only 55% of the voters were above 45. It also has 65+ bracket making 27% of the total voters, which is nearly double what we saw in Indiana.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)kcjohn1
(751 posts)I would expect 50%/50% split between those under 45 and those over.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Major difference.
Response to DCBob (Reply #9)
frylock This message was self-deleted by its author.
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)"We serve as political consultants and public opinion researchers; conducting quantitative and qualitative research and analyzing results in order to create a strategy to help clients achieve their goals whether thats winning elections, changing views on key issues or increasing market share."
"Our clients include political candidates and candidate support organizations, ballot measure committees, issue advocacy groups, labor unions and government agencies as well as corporations and business interests."
delrem
(9,688 posts)Skink
(10,122 posts)If he hasn't already. Should be + 20 by June.
Response to DCBob (Original post)
cyberpj This message was self-deleted by its author.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)It didn't say anything about independents being excluded from the poll. If it excluded independents, there wouldn't have been any data on how independents will vote.
NPP and Independent are the same thing. Independent isn't a party and neither is NPP, both are just terms for voters who don't align with a party.
Response to KingFlorez (Reply #13)
cyberpj This message was self-deleted by its author.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)You are trying to say that the pollster did something nefarious, but your argument just is not true. The data for independents is there, so they were polled.
Response to KingFlorez (Reply #16)
cyberpj This message was self-deleted by its author.
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Response to DCBob (Reply #14)
cyberpj This message was self-deleted by its author.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Educate yourself about politics.
Response to KingFlorez (Reply #21)
cyberpj This message was self-deleted by its author.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)No legitimate poll would include American Independent Party voters, because they can't vote in the Democratic primary. They would have to switch to Decline to State or Democratic. California is a semi-closed primary.
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Certainly not what you thought!
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)Hey guys we been laughing at you for a month now, because you wont listen to us because we are stupid. Even now you are not listening to us and telling us to educate ourselves. California has a independent party it is a super right confederarate party which issues are segregation, anti abortion and anti gay. Now npr just did a study and polled members 70% thought they were registering for a different kind of party. This AIP party cannot participate in the Democratic voting. So if I were you I would go educate myself. Go to Npr and find out for yourself.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Response to KingFlorez (Reply #12)
cyberpj This message was self-deleted by its author.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Just stop. You are not telling the truth about the methodology of the poll.
Response to KingFlorez (Reply #19)
cyberpj This message was self-deleted by its author.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)CA Poll: Bernie up with independents, but Hillary still holds sway
http://capitolweekly.net/hillary-bernie-independents-poll-california/
<snip>
But this group of new registrants is far smaller, only 16% of the number of likely voters. If that entire group were to vote, and favor Sanders by an 80%-to-20% margin, it would almost close the current gap. Our data admittedly a small sample shows Sanders leading Clinton in this group by 67%-27%.
That Sanders advantage could be blunted by any higher-than-expected turnout of African-American and Latino voters, where Clinton has a decided advantage.
<snip>
In our survey, one-third of NPP voters said they did not plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The remainder is evenly split between re-registering as Republicans or not casting a presidential vote.
That alone takes the NPP percentage under 20%.
Then there is the additional issue for NPP voters described in depth on this site last week the half of NPP voters who are Permanent Absentee Voters and must fill out and return a card to their County Clerk requesting the Democratic presidential ballot. As Paul Mitchell pointed out, the return rate has been anemic thus far. If half of these voters dont end up with a Democratic presidential ballot, the NPP percentage for that election falls to around 15%.
<snip>
Beacool
(30,254 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)For example on Thursday, the same day as the ELAC speech, she met with local Dem representatives at the African American Museum in LA:
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Remember South Carolina?
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Go Hillary!
(Call it Skinner)
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)hearing what that PERSON said.
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)I'm just sure when they're looking at all the reasons he couldn't pull of a win, that's the kind of behavior folks will remember.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)a Bernie win or working to stop whatever asinine policies are put forth. Which, by the way, you will be responsible for if they are made by Hillary.
One thing is for sure, we are not going away. Bank on that.
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)Last edited Sat May 7, 2016, 03:53 PM - Edit history (1)
I live on a red state. My vote will not really matter of I vote Republican and that's not ever happening
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)I've been waiting for some Hillary supporters to show up in CA. By the way, don't bother trying to recruit Hillary supporters on DU, they are all post and no show from what I have seen.
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)I love where I live but I also realize my vote probably isn't going to mean much. I live in a very liberal city so protesting here isn't going to mean much either and I'd rather avoid the swamps if I can.