2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGame over?
Politico:
Here's how it works: After winning Indiana, Sanders has 1,399 pledged delegates and superdelegates to his name, according to the Associated Press' count. That means he needs 984 more to reach the threshold of 2,383 needed to win.
The remaining contests, however Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the District of Columbia only have 933 pledged delegates to offer.
So even if Sanders were to win 100 percent of the pledged delegates in each of those states, he wouldn't make it past the mark.
Hence his efforts to win over superdelegates, the party leaders and elites who can choose their candidate regardless of how their states vote. That strategy is a long shot at best for Sanders: of the 719 super delegates, Clinton leads 520 to 39.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/math-says-bernie-sanders-is-finished-222775
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Sparkly
(24,162 posts)Edit: I think 700 w/o super delegates?
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)based upon the voting trends of the past primary states, she won't reach the # required to earn nomination
So they BOTH would require SDs to earn nomination..
Funny how MSM misses out reporting on that
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)then they won't allow Hillary to be president either IMO. Trump is receiving help on the Left unlike anything I've seen before.
AgerolanAmerican
(1,000 posts)the elites and the base have diverged to a conflict point
the convention is sure going to be interesting
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)something he wants, not huge since his leverage isn't that great, but enough to make him feel pushing further gained something of worth. Then they'll all make an announcement.
Then, because he wants to defeat Trump but is proudly not one of them, I predict he'll be both helpful and a further nuisance (from their point of view, not his of course) through the rest of the campaign.
I was interested recently when a neighbor's relative's something, a member of a socialist party whose name won't come, badmouthed Bernie as really just a Democrat. Such an insult! In any case, apparently they disagree that he even qualifies as a Social Democrat, much less a Democratic Socialist, much less a Socialst.
Certainly couldn't argue with her when he has voted with the Dem caucus over 95% of the time for a quarter century. Otoh, Bernie has been denouncing Democrats and badmouthing liberals for far longer than that, so seems just sensible, and polite, to take his word on the matter.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)No one should even want something like that to happen. Bullying your way to the nomination is undemocratic and a third world tactic.
GreatGazoo
(3,937 posts)Fracking kills people as do illegal wars and lack of single payer healthcare.
Really nothing to laugh at.
WDIM
(1,662 posts)The establishment will make their pick and status quo quid pro quo will continue.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)and suspend the super part of the Super-Delegates Rule, giving each Super one vote.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Please examine the numbers. We are not talking about differential equations or calculus here. Simple arithmetic.
Delegates Clinton Sanders Delegate
Delegates+Supers 4763 2205 1401
Delegates Won 4051 1683 1362
Superdelegates (712) 522 39
Counting only elected delegates (i.e. the legitimate delegates):
To get a majority of PDs (2026):
Hillary needs 343 more PDs
Bernie needs 664 more PDs
There are 1006 PDs still available. Absolutely it is a narrow path for Bernie. But it is a complete lie to say it's "mathematically impossible" for Bernie. Not an opinion, not a perception. A complete, mathematical, provable LIE.
As for supers, Bernie has pointed out that the ones who choose to defy the popular vote in their states do so at their political peril. Most of them are also elected officials!
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)The endgame is for Bernie to secure more pledged delegates. An incredible long shot, not really gonna happen prospect. But not mathematically impossible. He has not been mathematically eliminated from doing that.
In the event he were able to secure the majority of the pledged delegates, the supers would push him over, just as they would if HIllary is the pledged delegate winner. Because she will not his 2,383 through pledged delegates alone either. T