2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFive Thirty Eight: Sanders Shouldn’t Drop Out For Clinton’s Sake
Were getting to the point in the primary season when people turn their focus to the general election. Since Hillary Clinton tore through the Northeast on April 26, the Bernie Sanders campaign has laid off staff and suffered fundraising setbacks. But Sanders has intimated that he will keep fighting, even contesting the Democratic convention in July. So, could Sanders damage Clintons chances in the general election? Do long, hard-fought primaries weaken the candidate who emerges from them victorious?
That question, which is probably even more pressing for Republicans this year, has preoccupied political scientists for decades. The hypothesis that divisive primaries are detrimental is intuitive: Candidates attack one another, dividing the party and alienating supporters. But research findings have been mixed.
In a 1998 study of presidential elections, University of New Mexico political scientist Lonna Atkeson challenged the theory by suggesting that divisive primaries occur when the party is already divided. In other words, divisive primaries are the symptom, not the disease. Were in the midst of an open primary, but take recent incumbent presidents as an example: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 ran into trouble in the general election, but not because they were challenged in the primaries. They attracted challengers in the primaries because they were already in political trouble. Controlling for factors that account for this political trouble the strength of the economy and the presidents popularity Atkeson found that the effect of divisive primaries on how well the nominee does in the general election drops out. In other words, divisive primaries dont make the incumbent party vulnerable; the causation runs the other way.
And more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-shouldnt-drop-out-for-clintons-sake/
Hopefully both sides can knock it off and realize that we should let him finish the race, then unite behind Hillary. No need for this sniping constantly.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)calling Bernie a loser, his supporters gnats, and just flow with it. Although I do believe there will be surprises at the convention..but we shall see.
runaway hero
(835 posts)It's not a big deal. Just let him run. Why fight about it?
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)beedle
(1,235 posts)making dishonest excuses for the exit polls results showing obvious fraud, a methodology used the world over to expose such election fraud, I am more inclined to tell Nate to go fuck himself with the disingenuous "let's all hold hands" bullshit.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But Nate Silver did write an article about exit polls. *8* years ago, long before the Sanders-Clinton race. Exit polls are notoriously misleading for numerous reasons: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/
BootinUp
(47,231 posts)Didn't read the rest.