2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPrediction: Hillary's "Legacy" will be the first one-term Democratic President since Jimmy Carter.
The People (of whom I consider myself one) want change. Not finger-wagging "I told them to cut it out" change, either.
If the country continues on its current arc with regard to income inequality, we're only a couple decades away from torches and pitchforks. If we've already reached the "tipping point" of GCC as I've read over and over, and crops begin failing as predicted... we're less than two decades away from that.
She's got two and a half years after she's elected before the 2020 General Election becomes an issue. No transformative change? She'll have to survive a primary challenge. She'll also be known as the President who presided over the advent of government-wide term limits.
She won't be remembered as a Senator. She won't be remembered as Secretary of State. She'll be remembered as a one-term Democratic President who merely served as a placeholder for her successor.
Why? Gridlock. In the likely situation she'll be in, without a Democratic congress, she'll experience gridlock like we've never seen. Nothing will change. Because of that, when the time comes to start thinking about the 2020 election... she'll face a primary challenge. This time? Independents will know beforehand they need to change their affiliation and closed primaries WILL NOT be the firewall the DNC needs to rig the game.
One. Term. President. That's Hillary's legacy. Take that to da bank.
LuvLoogie
(7,082 posts)Or are we still on Anger?
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)that fancy themselves as prophets
Baobab
(4,667 posts)People see him as more human. Even though its fake.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Yes, I'm a Bernie Sanders supporter. I see two possible outcomes. One where the playing field gets leveled by a person who never really benefited from DECADES public service, and one where the person who turned public service into a gold mine the likes of which we've never seen before.
I find myself flabbergasted by two things this cycle... those who call themselves Democrats who rail about Bernie Sanders' plans that will increase their taxes by a few pennies per dollar, and those who use the term "freebie" like they just came from free republic.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)paid by health insurance industry, likely.
Maybe $2M/day worth.
Response to LuvLoogie (Reply #1)
artislife This message was self-deleted by its author.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)This poster has apparently accepted reality but is still trying to create doubts and fears by trying to convince Hillary supporters of a worst possible outcome. Next they try to bargain and trade that fear and turn it into a vote for Bernie.
In the past, they have attempted to create fears based on the prediction that Hillary would lose to Trump. But it now seems that the new fear they are trying to create is that Hillary will be a one-term president.
So ... even though they continue to not have success with these bargaining chips they are creating, it's still progress no matter how you view it.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)change the SCOTUS, overturn Citizens United. Bernie running against in the Primaries again at 79? I doubt it.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)There are a SHIT TON of Democrats out there who don't support Hillary Clinton but are afraid to say it.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)gave her a good challenge but still lost. Who are Bernie's allies? Merkley is the only Senator backing Bernie
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Bernie won't run. Every young Democrat in Congress will be thinking about it though. It will be a different WORLD in 2019, politically.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)will face gridlock, but BS wouldn't (or less of it), you're smoking some good stuff. Republicans wouldn't be any easier to work with for BS.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I think he'd pick a VP whose experience was much like his. A VP we would be happy to support as his successor.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)She's already wooing Bush donors.
Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #20)
artislife This message was self-deleted by its author.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)Which always seemed strange to me. Do you really think that the more extreme than Newt's congress is looking forward to working with anyone that isn't a republican?
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)question I just asked though.
That Guy 888
(1,214 posts)Neither Sanders or Clinton will get cooperation from republicans. It is foolish to pretend republicans will cooperate with a more moderate Clinton.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)Response to cherokeeprogressive (Original post)
TM99 This message was self-deleted by its author.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Yeah- That's what I thought- it was just a bumper sticker slogan. If there really was a movement Bernie would lead progressives to victory in the mid terms. As despicable as the Tea Party is, they at least got organized enough to win some congressional seats-Why doesn't Bernie use his considerable popularity to form a real progressive caucus-Is he just going to give up after all this-Why aren't you Sanders' supporters doing something with all the strength you have demonstrated. I don't get all the negativity. There is a chance to build on all the good Bernie has done.
Response to redstateblues (Reply #26)
TM99 This message was self-deleted by its author.
unblock
(52,515 posts)obama is the 3rd 2-termer in a row (clinton, shrub, obama). that's only ever happened once before (jefferson, madison, monroe).
4 in a row has never happened and seems very unlikely no matter who it is.
moreover, obama managed 8 years without a recession people may not have liked the anemic growth, but it was all steady improvement from the crater of an economy shrub left us.
12 years without a recession is too much to ask for, so the next lucky winner of the white house will also very likely be the lucky winner of a recession, which doesn't look good on a presidential resume when running for re-election.
the carter presidency was also doomed for reasons well beyond the control of the oval office, he just had the dumb luck to be the occupant at the time.
it's fun sometimes to wonder what it might have been like if reagan had somehow won in 1976 and been president when interest rates broke 20% and iran took the hostages.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)msongs
(67,509 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)They won't get fooled again.
Sounds like a song lyric to me...
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)The Republicans are planning already, you can bank on it.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)That might just be the hand we've been dealt at the moment. 16 years of democratic presidents seems even less likely. With luck we get in there, appoint some supreme court justices, let republicans obstruct, investigate and attack her to the point that the public gets disgusted and we win back congress. Then they nominate somebody slightly more sane than Trump and take back the White House. Would you rather this sacrificial lamb be the great socialist progressive hope, or the last gasp of the DNC establishment?
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)My preference would have been for Ralph Nader to win in 2000. My second choice would have been Al Gore. Reality was a harsh disappointment.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Disappointment is the most common outcome of the Human Condition.
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)I'm going to take the unexciting inevitable candidate and damnit, I'm going to like it!
Beacool
(30,254 posts)Yeah, because Sanders would have been able to pass his agenda by waving a magic wand. As for one term presidents, he definitely would have been one. He'll be 75 years old on election day. An 80 years old president? I doubt it.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)You'll likely get your female President. The time is right. The sad part is the person isn't.
As I said in a different post... I don't believe Bernie Sanders has ever seen himself as a two-term President and I'm certain his VP pick would have been one we could all get behind in a heartbeat.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)oasis
(49,499 posts)The Clinton Machine will make sure of that. Hillary's VP will serve her third term beginning in 2024. This period in American history will be known as "The Clinton Renaissance".
Relax and enjoy the ride.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)You're FUNNY.
Response to oasis (Reply #31)
TM99 This message was self-deleted by its author.
oasis
(49,499 posts)with a familiar comment attributed to Maggie "the problem with socialism is you eventually run out of other people's money".
Too bad the American people won't get to find out if her theory was correct.
Response to oasis (Reply #37)
TM99 This message was self-deleted by its author.
oasis
(49,499 posts)That's actually a good thing.
Response to oasis (Reply #39)
TM99 This message was self-deleted by its author.
oasis
(49,499 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Then, you'll be fucked.
Putin is poking us with a stick via his close passes of naval vessels with fighter aircraft. If Hillary is elected, I fully expect those pokes to turn into punches.
Then what?
oasis
(49,499 posts)forces personnel. I don't expect Hillary to back down to Putin, or any other insane jackass.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Interesting theory!
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)We'll make damn sure of that.
Bye bye, firewall.
apcalc
(4,465 posts)unbelieveable that any voter paying the least bit of attention could be
'caught unaware'.
Pitiful ignorance of voting/registration.....
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)In 4 years, nobody is going to remember how wrong you were. If Clinton wins the general election, she will not have any notable primary competition. I'm sure a handful of literal nobodies would nominally run, but no elected Democrat would do so.
Is the next president likely to be a 1 term president? I think it's likely just due to historical precedence. It's really rare for a party to hold the presidency for 4 consecutive terms. But we are also entering a major demographic shift that bodes very poorly for the Republican party given how reluctant they are to change to attract minority or women voters.
Another problem with your "analysis" that independents will know to register for the Democratic party next time is that Clinton has won a majority of the open primaries. Kind of awkward for your claim.
Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas Virginia, Mississippi, North Carolina and Tennessee. Sanders won Vermont, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oklahoma and Indiana.
Remaining open primaries: Puerto Rico and North Dakota.
This constant whining about the game being rigged has gotten really pathetic. If Clinton were so all powerful, how did Obama beat her? I mean other than Obama being a much better candidate than Sanders.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)thelordofhell
(4,569 posts)Welcome to DU Mitch.......Enjoy your future as the minority leader in the Senate.
BootinUp
(47,230 posts)Sky Masterson
(5,240 posts)followed by 8 years of republican hogwash.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Nothing about this primary has been predictable.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)- generic response from camp Weathervane, May 2016
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)Sometimes people let their emotions get the better of them, and simply say negative stuff to get their distress off their chest. I hope your post made you feel better because its really not insightful at all, and just reads like sour grapes. We have no idea how Hillary will be as President. She was certainly a popular Senator in a state that is highly diverse by every measure, and she was actually held in high regard by her colleagues in the Senate, including Bernie. But, you can always hope she does badly. I suppose that's a consolation prize of sorts.
eridani
(51,907 posts)Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)She enters office as the most unpopular new president in history.
Then, as you say, gridlock keeps her from accomplishing anything of note.
Then, one other factor. Recessions seem to happen in 8-10 year cycles: 1973, 1981, 1990, 2001, 2008. We're due, and she'll get blamed.
Still, I don't see her being unseated in a primary. But I would fear for the general.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)When the public finds out what she has done, it will get ugly. And if the DoJ doesn't act on the FBI's findings, Congressional hearings will take her apart down to nuts and bolts. I don't see any way that is avoided. It's on oncoming train and we're on the tracks.
Demsrule86
(68,869 posts)Obama was re-elected in 12 despite 'gridlock'. And I am sure it the president's fault that there is 'gridlock' (not) Many of you don't bother to vote in off-year elections....and let's say your fantasy was true Hillary was a one term president...then the messiah I am sure you would choose...would face gridlock too. Until you figure out that one person can not do it all, any movement you begin is doomed. We have to take back the states and then Congress. You seem to think that one person can wag his/her finger and presto all is well. That is magic thinking. What Hillary will do is pick up to four nominees to the Supreme Court...and if any GOP had that chance...then you guys would be finished forever. So instead of writing snarky posts...why not lend a hand in order to effect the change you desire.. or.it is easier to believe one guy can do it all...that means you don't have to?
Demsrule86
(68,869 posts)Jimmy Carter was an honorable man who was shafted by his own party: particularly Ted Kennedy. Kennedy later wrote that was one of his biggest regrets. And here you all are trying to take something you did not earn (the nomination) and blow up the election process which would be worse than electing Reagan...because Reagan was awful...but Trump is way worse and more dangerous. Jimmy Carter got the only peace agreement ever in the Middle East...no other president has ever managed that.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I love the audacity of claiming to speak for "The People." You sounds like a Teapublican.