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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton Has Edge Over Donald Trump In General Election
Hillary Clinton would have a significant electoral advantage over Donald Trump in the general election, based on an NPR analysis.
The Democratic former secretary of state would start out with already exactly enough electoral votes to win the presidency, 270-191, based on states considered safe, likely and to lean toward either candidate. The ratings, which will be updated at least monthly until Election Day, are based on fundamentals historical trends and demographics, plus reporting and polling (both public and private).
But there is also the potential that this fall's presidential battlegrounds could be re-sorted pitting white, working-class voters, whom Trump is appealing to, against Latino voters, who appear to be in Clinton's corner. Traditional ways of thinking about the map should and will be challenged. So in addition to our current ratings, we also explore several possibilities and scenarios, including Trump's potential path and even two potential ties, based on Trump doing well in the Upper Midwest and Clinton racking up wins in competitive states where the Latino vote is important.
http://www.npr.org/2016/05/10/477190080/demographics-and-history-tilt-the-map-in-clintons-favor-over-trump
The Democratic former secretary of state would start out with already exactly enough electoral votes to win the presidency, 270-191, based on states considered safe, likely and to lean toward either candidate. The ratings, which will be updated at least monthly until Election Day, are based on fundamentals historical trends and demographics, plus reporting and polling (both public and private).
But there is also the potential that this fall's presidential battlegrounds could be re-sorted pitting white, working-class voters, whom Trump is appealing to, against Latino voters, who appear to be in Clinton's corner. Traditional ways of thinking about the map should and will be challenged. So in addition to our current ratings, we also explore several possibilities and scenarios, including Trump's potential path and even two potential ties, based on Trump doing well in the Upper Midwest and Clinton racking up wins in competitive states where the Latino vote is important.
http://www.npr.org/2016/05/10/477190080/demographics-and-history-tilt-the-map-in-clintons-favor-over-trump
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Hillary Clinton Has Edge Over Donald Trump In General Election (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
OP
I am not going to focus on one poll-If a poll looks too good or too bad to be true it probably is.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#2
WOW...now six threads on polls showing Hillary winning, when real polls for the GE
ViseGrip
May 2016
#3
woolldog
(8,791 posts)1. The QU swing state polls do NOT look good this morning.
HRC losing OH, neck and neck in FL and PA. Not a good sign.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)2. I am not going to focus on one poll-If a poll looks too good or too bad to be true it probably is.
And it is impossible to unskew a poll without introducing your own bias into the unskewing. Just treat every poll as a data point.
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)3. WOW...now six threads on polls showing Hillary winning, when real polls for the GE
DON'T SHOW THAT AT ALL!!!
THEY SHOW BERNIE WINNING...GO BERNIE!
FL, OH, PA. Must have two to win and on Bernie has it in the polling.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)4. That is incorrect.
WOW...now six threads on polls showing Hillary winning, when real polls for the GE
DON'T SHOW THAT AT ALL!!!
DON'T SHOW THAT AT ALL!!!
ARGUMENT:
One set of cherry picked polls doesn't invalidate aggregate polling
Sam Wang
?@SamWangPhD
Outlier data pts, sigh.
Current medians:
PA Clinton +4% (n=6)
OH +5% (5)
FL +7% (5)
In an election today, she wins. http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/09/can-trump-scramble-the-electoral-map-definitely-starting-with-utah/
?@SamWangPhD
Outlier data pts, sigh.
Current medians:
PA Clinton +4% (n=6)
OH +5% (5)
FL +7% (5)
In an election today, she wins. http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/09/can-trump-scramble-the-electoral-map-definitely-starting-with-utah/
EVIDENCE
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html