2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy do 40% of Sanders voters support Trump? Brookings' Bill Galston and other policy gurus explain
IMO SBS is getting a lot of votes from Hillary-hating Trump supporters who don't want to wait until November to vote against her. It's way past time for SBS to stop helping The Donald and return to work as a VT Senator.
The following analysis from the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. buttresses this view.
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/trump-sanders-similarities-1.3506257
'U.S. candidate comparison: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have more in common than you might think
Meagan Fitzpatrick · Reporter · CBC NewsMarch 26, 2016
Similarities between Trump and Sanders go far beyond their New York roots and noteworthy hait ... they haven't gone unnoticed by media and political pundits in this unpredictable, sometimes bizarre U.S. election season.
Trump acknowledged he and Sanders do agree on one thing: the U.S. is being ripped off when it comes to trade.Their opposition to trade deals is indeed a policy area where Trump and Sanders are aligned. They even use the same word "disaster" to describe the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership
"Neither of them appears ever to have met a trade agreement that he didn't dislike," said William Galston, a former policy adviser to Bill Clinton and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
On another policy front, they both talk about how they opposed the Iraq War, using that fact against their opponents in an "I told you so" manner. Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Trump and Sanders both tap into an "America First" feeling in the electorate when it comes to foreign policy. "They wouldn't want to call themselves isolationist, but that's effectively what they are," he said.
Trump and Sanders are also on the same page when it comes to money and politics. They both rail against the influence of big donors and lobbyists on Capitol Hill, saying they are not beholden to those interests.In their campaigns, they eschew super PACs and boast of how they don't rely on them. In Trump's case, he says he's self-funding his campaign, while Sanders is raking in small donations from millions of Americans...."
MUCH MORE AT LINK
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)and high proportions of Sanders primary voters really prefer Trump, wouldn't Democrats lose virtually every State in November?
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)for that segment of voters we are talking about.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)silvershadow
(10,336 posts)ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)silvershadow
(10,336 posts)ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)Last edited Tue May 10, 2016, 10:04 PM - Edit history (1)
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-voteNearly half of WV Sanders primary voters said they're going to vote for Trump in the fall.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)TwilightZone
(25,525 posts)ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)map after I edit to reflect what I meant.
Thank you.
TwilightZone
(25,525 posts)I knew what you meant. haha
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)is a typo. What you caught was something more serious--brought on by trying to make sure I got tired enough to avoid another night of insomnia.
LeftRant
(524 posts)thesquanderer
(12,002 posts)Still, I will grant you that some Sanders voters will choose Trump over Hillary in November. I would suggest that these are generally people who are not Democrats to begin with. Hillary primarily appeals to Dems. Bernie appeals to a block of Dems and a block of indies. The latter group in particular cannot be counted on to support Hillary in November... many of them would never have considered her to begin with. They are part of the reason that Bernie polls better in GE matchups.
I'd also suggest that today's West Va results may exaggerate this. Since Trump is a shoe-in, indies may have been more likely to vote in the Dem primary than in the uncontested Repub primary.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)everything you said.
Except six-month out GE comparisons against Trump of HRC versus unvetted SBS are completely worthless.
thesquanderer
(12,002 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)the clone of the elderly woman who will vote here for HRC in the primary, but for trump in November. 10 percent. not surprising. I actually expect it to be a tad higher.
thesquanderer
(12,002 posts)They cannot really tell you what people will be thinking 6 months from now. But they do indicate what people are thinking today, and so I think these polls do reflect the fact that there are a good chunk of independents currently supporting Bernie who have a hard time envisioning themselves voting for Hillary. That's really the connection I was making. It was not a comment on how reliable such predictions might be.
Related to that, though, if you're going to dismiss the "Sanders beats Trump more handily" polls as being unreliable because they are six months away, you pretty much have to dismiss the "40% of Sanders voters in WV are going to vote for Trump" poll for the same reason. In the end, neither is a terribly reliable prediction, though both do give you some indication of how people are thinking.
As an aside, while the 6-month out polls are inherently unreliable, given the choice, I'd rather be the candidate ahead in them than the candidate behind!
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)Washington Post report that 40 percent of WV Sanders primary voters would prefer Trump over Sanders in November
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/early-w-va-numbers-show-4-in-10-sanders-backers-prefer-trump-over-clinton-and-trump-over-sanders/
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)tarnished after the way they have handled this primary. All the way through. I really don't take much stock in 1. The Washington Post 2. Polls 3. Particularly, polls about a hypothetical General, while we are in the middle of a very real Primary.
Finally, a week is an eternity in politics.
djean111
(14,255 posts)Ponies, rainbows, and unicorns....and wishful thinking.
Oh, and the trade deals do suck jobs out of the US, and the Iraq War WAS bad, and big money in elections IS bad.
Those are ISSUES, not some (changeable) stances only arrived at because of focus groups, advisers, and pandering for votes.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)a Trump faction to take over the Democratic Party? IMO, that would be political hari-kari.
djean111
(14,255 posts)who is for war and fracking and the Third Way and means-testing Social Security instead of raising the cap and is against single payer and has an astoundingly massive untrustworthy rating.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)Not all Sanders voters are party members. This has been explained over and over throughout this primary, particularly poignantly when the Trump fever hit- about the time the wheels fell off the bus, around the first of the year...
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)they're false accusations to appeal to Hillary haters.
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)Money in politics isn't an issue either apparently. Sorry but no. These are issues, my friend, not cudgels to bash Hillary with even if she's on the wrong side of some of them and Trump (yuck) is on the right side.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)variously positions NOW is easy. Demonstrating that she actually holds those positions NOW is much harder. For example, her having believed Colin Powell about Iraq WMD over a decade ago, for which she has apologized, does not make her a future warmonger.
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)I don't care who you are. If you voted for the Iraq war that's a big black mark on my book. Mind you, if As seems likely, she is the Democratic nominee I'll clamp my fingers to my nose and vote for her over Trump.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)and renounced Iraq war vote into future war-ginning, and distorting her failure to disarm unilaterally on political fundraising both are accusations Trump has picked up after SBS pounded away at them for a full year. Can't you see the unnecessary damage Bernie has caused Democratic hopes to keep the WH and take back the Senate? IMO his biggest accomplishment has been to enable and fuel Trump, and he needs to turn off his smear machine now.
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)It is true that she later said it was a mistake but clearly when she makes a mistake, she errs on the side of hawkishness and was at odds with the more cautious Obama on Libya, Syria, etc. This is all well known, not something Sanders dreamed up and Trump glommed on to.
Blue Meany
(1,947 posts)but I doubt that he got any significant number before now. My guess is that Hillary has been getting a lot more Republican votes then Bernie, since she has been actively courting Republican donors and voters for some time and her positions are much closer to theirs than Bernie's. Perhaps she should drop out rather than use Republican votes and funds to get the Democratic nomination.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)that SBS is echoing Trump on the economy, tearing down President Obama's unprecedented reversal of the Great Recession.
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)I expect a lot of republicans to vote for Sanders now that the republican race is wrapped up.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)More cognitive dissonance from Hilary supporters and their inability to come to terms with reality.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Article never mentions any 40% or any facts at all...just a lot of speculation and opinion. A perfect fact-free resource for Hillarians!
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)TexasMommaWithAHat
(3,212 posts)and will happily raise the middle finger to the DNC when they vote for Trump. And I believe the opposite will happen, as well. In fact, I know it will.
People are pissed.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)You may be making exactly the same point as part of the CBC link I didn't include in the OP. Sanders and Trump appeal to many of the same emotions as well as misunderstandings about the economy, the realities of our current political system, and the remarkable accomplishments of the first African-American President.
TexasMommaWithAHat
(3,212 posts)If for some reason Trump is not the nominee.
Our president may have some accomplishments, but people know that wages are being held artificially low because companies pay low wages to undocumented immigrants, jobs are being outsourced, and people are losing jobs to holders of H1-B visas. They know that our government has made it ridiculously easy if not downright lucrative for corporations to move jobs out of the country.
They know that we're going to bail out Wall Street again, if necessary. They know that both parties are now run by 1%ers for 1%ers.
People know that they can't afford to use that insurance plan they got under Obamacare.
They know that even some democrats are open to slashing Social Security before they lift the ceiling on contributions.
People are fed up with both parties. If Sanders hadn't gotten serious media attention during the first few primaries, I really don't think that Hillary would be the future democratic nominee.
Btw, my brother voted for Trump. (I voted for Bernie.) He can't stand Hillary, and his vote is a big "Fuck you!" to the republican party. We don't have much in common politically, except that we both know that our political leaders will screw us every which way they can as long as they can hold onto power and get rich at the same time.
Yeah, I'm jaded.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)It seems you ARE agreeing with the CBC link from the OP. Sanders is appealing to some, though not all, of the emotions that drive Trump supporters.
Perhaps what makes Trump supporters among Sanders primary voters favor Trump in the GE are the emotions Sanders thankfully doesn't support--anti-Muslim bigotry, xenophobic craving for a big wall, fever to deport 11 million working people, etc.