2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOperation Chaos in West Virgiinia? That's crazier than Trump Talk.
Mass numbers of voters do not behave that way, never have and never will. Small numbers at the margins, yeah sure maybe, two or three percent perhaps. And people who act that way are rarely registered as Independents. They tend to be hard core partisans and way more caught up in insider election dynamics that typical voters. And even then that relative handful of voters need strong motivation to vote tactically rather than show their support for someone they actually believe in. They might do so if they truly thought that a nomination was literally up for grabs, and could go ether way, then perhaps they would vote for a candidate they didn't like who they thought might make a weak ultimate opponent to whoever they did like.
I've seen some on this board try to spin that Sanders only won West Virginia because Trump supporters backed him to hurt Clinton's chances. Anyone who thinks that explains why Sanders got the support he did in the West Virginia primary is dangerously delusional. Delusional because it makes no sense and runs contrary to all evidence from the Democratic contests to date; dangerous because it feeds into a state of willful denial about what really is happening, which should be of serious concern for anyone who cares about the fortunes of the Democratic Party in America.
I am not surprised to see that a significant minority of those who supported Sanders in Virginia are currently more inclined to vote for Trump in November than Sanders, if Bernie won the nomination. West Virginia has elected its share of Democratic Governors, State Legislators and U.S. Senators in recent decades, but it has become reliably Republican in Presidential elections. There are still slews of registered Democrats in West Virginia, many are people who vote Democratic locally and Republican nationally, who couldn't vote for Trump in the Republican Primary. Trump has been running as a right wing populist and Sanders has been running as a left wing populist. Populism appeals across the political spectrum when average people feel like they are getting screwed by the elites. Given a primary when they either could only vote for Bernie or Hillary (if they were registered Democrats), or where it was obvious that Trump already had the Republican endorsement totally sown up, it makes sense that voters with populist tendencies cast votes for Bernie, even those who preferred Trump most of all.
Here is the sad and very disturbing truth. Many Americans, and much of the white working class in particular, no longer believe that typical Liberal politicians really have their economic interests at heart. The Democratic Party has allowed much of its prior working class base to be stolen out from under it. Liberalism has to a large extent successfully been rebranded by the right as another form of elitism, centered around snobs in trendy urban areas with Hollywood values who look down on common people who lead "normal" lives.
Bernie Sanders has strong cross over appeal because so many Independents and so called Reagan Democrats don't identify him as another stereotypical liberal. They believe he actually cares about regular struggling folks like them and that most standard liberal Democrats don't. They don't have the same working definition of "liberal" that progressives on boards like this use, so it doesn't surprise me one bit that in Virginia Bernie won a lot of votes from people who say that they want less liberal policies, not more.
Bernie Sanders has been having success reaching a lot of those people all year, whereas Hillary Clinton has struggled. They are true swing voters. Given a full campaign to work on them, it's likely some of them would end up backing Sanders over Trump in a final November match up. It will be very had for Hillary to do the same.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,169 posts)The only "chaos" there is of her own doing.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,919 posts)But the results reflect how the electorate felt about both of them.
WhiteTara
(29,739 posts)the white woman in 2008 over the black man. Now they voted for a white man over a woman.
Demsrule86
(68,869 posts)Bernie only won because of Trump voters who won't vote for him in GE if he was the candidate which he won't be of course.
bigtree
(86,024 posts)...now you're trying to make like that caricature fits into your everyman model.
It's pure fantasy that Sanders has some sort of appeal to conservatives. It's even more fantastical to imagine he appeals to Trump supporters. It's obvious they were disruptors.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,919 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)YouDig
(2,280 posts)Have you looked at the delegate count recently? Who cares if it was Trump disruptors or actual Bernie supporters who showed up in West Virginia? He gained seven delegates and is behind by 280.
BootinUp
(47,231 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,919 posts)...assuming you mean what I think you mean. However I will get behind the eventual nominee
BootinUp
(47,231 posts)don't mind reading your posts whichever side they are on. Include me in that group.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)This isn't the first time during this primary that it has occurred. These are people who will never vote Democratic in a general election again, but remain registered Democrats and cast protest votes in the primary. To think that West Virginia is some sort of progressive bastion is a mistake.
LisaM
(27,864 posts)as someone pointed out on another thread, in a sense, Trump won both the Democratic and GOP primaries there.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)The same voters that preferred the white woman over the Black man (in 2008), prefer the white man over the white female (in 2016).
And, when you factor in trump ... they will prefer the "uber-AMERICAN" white male over the Jewish Socialist man AND the white woman.
BootinUp
(47,231 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)elleng
(131,458 posts)that typical Liberal politicians really have their economic interests at heart. The Democratic Party has allowed much of its prior working class base to be stolen out from under it. Liberalism has to a large extent successfully been rebranded by the right as another form of elitism, centered around snobs in trendy urban areas with Hollywood values who look down on common people who lead "normal" lives.
Bernie Sanders has strong cross over appeal because so many Independents and so called Reagan Democrats don't identify him as another stereotypical liberal. They believe he actually cares about regular struggling folks like them and that most standard liberal Democrats don't. They don't have the same working definition of "liberal" that progressives on boards like this use, so it doesn't surprise me one bit that in Virginia Bernie won a lot of votes from people who say that they want less liberal policies, not more.
Bernie Sanders has been having success reaching a lot of those people all year, whereas Hillary Clinton has struggled. They are true swing voters. Given a full campaign to work on them, it's likely some of them would end up backing Sanders over Trump in a final November match up. It will be very had for Hillary to do the same.'
TwilightZone
(25,525 posts)This is West Virginia we're talking about. The place is the epitome of a contradiction. In 2012, 40% of voters in the Dem primary voted for a prison inmate over Obama.
Trying to apply standards to WV that fit other areas of the country is a losing proposition. It runs contrary because it *is* contrary.
Historic NY
(37,463 posts)she wants to replace those jobs.....both have said its a dying industry. When the exit polling is showing how many Sanders Voters will vote for Trump it says lots.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)IamMab
(1,359 posts)BootinUp
(47,231 posts)Bernie is the guy that can actually make it happen. Sure he is different and he has woken up some folks with his rhetoric, and strong idealistic approach. So there is an audience for Bernie. I think the problem I see with your analysis is that it disregards what I see as the fact he hasn't really been tested by hard race nationally. I think were that the case, we would see him have lower appeal even among Democrats. I don't remember any Presidential race that had rhetoric like Bernie's before.
I believe that in a General Election he would do rather poorly, because his policies would be painted as non fiscally sound. And Bernie hasn't helped himself by being more forthcoming on details to show that is not the case.
Also, on just the issues, I disagree with him on what I see as a strategy to deemphasize other important but divisive issues. Issues that are important to a large part of the D party, in an effort to have more cross over appeal.
So, I would want to see more success with an approach like Bernies, more state level races with candidates following his model before putting him up there in the race for President.
I recced your post because I would like to see more intelligent discussion around here. Hope you stick around.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Hillary surrogates made it up as a way to explain away their failures.
Cognitive dissonance does that...