2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"We may be just this screwed: Trump has an easier path to victory over Clinton than you think"
SALONWe may be just this screwed: Donald Trump has an easier path to victory than you think
Trump and Clinton share very high negatives. Hillary's may end up being harder to turn around
by Musa al-Gharbi
May 29, 2016
Nonetheless, the prevailing narrative is that while there is now a chance that Trump could actually win in November, its basically Hillary Clintons election to lose. Pundits focus on fundamentals, like Hillarys superior fundraising, analytics, or ground game; however, these havent proven terribly predictive this cycle. And by focusing on conventional elements, analysts seem to be overlooking novel dynamics which are likely more importantspecifically, the publics persistent and negative perception of Hillary Clinton, the incumbency handicap, and a phenomenon I call negative intersectionality.
Both Trump and Clinton hold historically unprecedented unfavorable ratings among likely voters. Of the two, Clinton has held a slight edgehowever, the gap between them has been rapidly closing. And heres the kicker: While it is true that the public is very familiar with both Trump and Clinton due to their decades-long careers in public life, Trump has been in the limelight primarily as a businessman and entertainer. People are just now discovering Trump the politicianand as a result, their views on Trump as a politician are malleable. The Clinton team views this as an opportunity, and are attempting to define him before he gets a chance to define himself. However, the flip side is that while Trumps numbers are currently low, there is a real opportunity for him to radically change public perception for the better. And he has tasked Paul Manafort with this responsibilitya man who, after orchestrating Ronald Reagans landslide victories, went on to build a highly successful career rehabilitating the image of dictators and strongmen. Hes made for this job. Expect Trumps numbers to rise.
Hillarys numbers are unlikely to follow the same trajectorybecause not only do people know her well, but they know her specifically as a politician. It is precisely her perceived cynicism and duplicity as a politician that drive her unfavorable rating. Public opinion of Clinton has been on a steady decline since December 2012, and a brutal, negative campaign is unlikely to shift the numbers in her favor. In other words, Clinton will have a much harder time turning around her bad image than Trump.
.... in many ways, the Democratic primary has been a referendum on Bill Clintons tenureand many of his signature achievements, championed by Hillary Clinton at the time, dont look so great in retrospect. From NAFTA, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, Wall Street deregulation, welfare reform, DOMA (the Defense of Marriage Act), Dont Ask, Dont Telland of course, the infamous crime billsdespite Bill Clintons success at restoring the Democratic Party to national prominence, primary voters have taken an increasingly critical view of his legacy. This effect will be even more pronounced among Independent and Republican voters.
Trump recognizes the opportunity here, and has already demonstrated an intention to hammer Hillary Clinton not only on her support of NAFTAbut to even undermine her feminist narratives by highlighting the genuinely disturbing sexual assault accusations against Bill Clinton, and the role that Hillary Clinton played in attempting to discredit and silence alleged victims. Again, in the current cultural and historical moment, voters seem unlikely to provide the same benefit of doubt that was afforded the Clintons in the 90s.
Read the complete article at:
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/29/we_may_be_just_this_screwed_donald_trump_has_an_easier_path_to_victory_than_you_think/
hill2016
(1,772 posts)against Trump
"which is why ̶B̶e̶r̶n̶i̶e̶ ̶ Hillary needs to concede next week so that we can unite"
There -- fixed that for ya.
You're welcome.
bahrbearian
(13,466 posts)Hydra
(14,459 posts)Did the wind change or something? Or was she caught committing a major crime?
Just need to know why the the most qualified candidate ever(TM) is sweating over a person who is literally unqualified for the office.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)Clinton's wins in South Carolina, Alabama, Texas and Mississippi mean exactly nothing. In fact, nominating a candidate based on their appeal to the tiny minority of voters who are democrats in those states is a recipe for disaster.
A week or so ago, there was an OP about suggestions on reforming the nomination process that would actually make the problem worse.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2064539
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)will even consider in the remotest possible circumstances voting for Trump.
That's the election right there.
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)As a Spanish speaker I was regularly sent to Latino neighborhoods. There are certainly Trump supporters there. They like his immigration message. They waited their turn legally and aren't thrilled with "line jumpers".
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)Others think Trump's support hovers in the solid 25% range.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/donald-trump-latino-voters_us_573c62d2e4b0646cbeeb8c16
He got as high as 45% Latino support in NV even with 2 other Latinos in the race (Cruz and Rubio).
I think we minimize his Latino support at our peril.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)Good luck getting Hillary over the finish line. Sincerely.
I'm not in a swing state so when Bernies out I get to watch the spectacle unfettered.
Hydra
(14,459 posts)Team Hill has a simple way of dealing with facts they don't like though- they ignore them.
Jesus Malverde
(10,274 posts)Is a stereotype. I agre with your assessment.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)The Hispanics want illegal immigration to stop. And the ones living here are very prejudiced against Mexicans and get a kick out of when Trump rails on them. They went through the proper channels. And they feel Trump is the best one to get reform done in this area. I have had many arguments with some of my Hispanic friends at work about this. The notion that every minority group is going to run away from him is naive.
doc03
(35,454 posts)NAFTA on Democrats and Bill Clinton? The Democrats voted NAFTA down in the House and Senate. It was the Republicans that passed NAFTA and it was GHWB's bill to start with. I don't know but I have heard that if Bill Clinton wouldn't have signed it it would have gone into effect anyway.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Add that in, and it spells DOOM! Those who laugh that away are torching their own futures.
The most basic problem though, is this, because it goes to who she is. And who she is might have been fine in an earlier time, but it is exactly what people don't want in this elections cycle:
I highly recommend the whole article too.