2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWonder if Allan Lichtman has made his prediction yet.
As of this writing, he had not:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/this-professor-has-predicted-every-presidential-election-since-1984-hes-still-trying-to-figure-out-2016/
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)No reliance on polls, no attempt to "weight" data. The key they identify in predicting who will win is the performance of the party holding the White House.
This goes along with something I heard from another pollster, that the incumbent president's approval rating is the key indicator that correlates most strongly, not in just the presidential race, but how the party will do as a whole.
This June article has 2 "updates," but unfortunately they're very dated.
http://hubpages.com/politics/Predicting-the-2016-Election-the-13-Keys-to-the-White-House
LICHTMAN: So when were talking about scandal, were talking about presidential scandals. Were talking about the Watergate scandal, the Clinton impeachment, the Teapot Dome bribery scandal of the 1920s. And there is nothing remotely close to that for the Obama administration. Candidates trying to undermine each other, that is as old as the Republic.
These personal charges and countercharges are really the common coin of American politics. They ebb and flow; theyre more severe at some times than others. Theyre pretty severe now, but theyve been more severe in the past.
democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)I knew a number of people who took his class in college. He has an interesting methodology. Based on his method I think this year would actually point to a Republican victory, but I don't think his model really takes into account a crazy like Trump. It's based mostly on the political environment.