2016 Postmortem
Related: About this foruma little reassurance for those concerned about the polls
Remember this?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx
Deep breath, folks: it's all media hype. Trump's gonna lose in a landslide.
Mass
(27,315 posts)At this point, polls are nothing more than a parlor game.
TheSarcastinator
(854 posts)the prospect of a Trump presidency is freaking horrific...so saying "get a life" to those concerned seems a bit arrogant and juvenile...but you rock on with your bad self.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Remember this is the most hallowed name in polling. Rather than revisit their methodology they doubled down.
tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)The media can depress turnout and enthusiasm with the push of illegitimate polls. For those of us working to GOTV, it can be a major hurdle.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Good advice
CanonRay
(14,149 posts)and that is only going to go up. The MSM wants a horse race, so expect to see shit polls.
TeddyR
(2,493 posts)And if the polls are off then 538 is off. See the Dem primary in Michigan this year, where I think he gave Hillary like a 95% or higher chance of winning.
Setting that aside, a poll that shows Trump ahead by 7% is probably no more reliable than one showing Hillary ahead by 12% (or whatever the ridiculously high number was from last week). I imagine that Hillary is ahead by about 5% nationally and that it is closer than that in some critical swing states. The debates may be especially important this year because I don't think Trump is going to play well at all to a national audience.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)They weigh for conservative/liberal leaning, and several other factors.
They don't just aggregate, and have a better record than just about everyone else:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)We decided last night to stop watching any TV news programs. I don't want to see orange man on my screen 24/7.