2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumUniversity of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll: Cruz Leads by a Little, Clinton by a Lot
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads the Republican presidential pack in Texas, followed by former Gov. Rick Perry and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Walker was running neck-and-neck with Cruz in February, when his entry into the race was making daily news, but the Texans home-field advantage is showing again. Cruz had the support of 20 percent of registered voters, followed by Perry at 12 percent, Walker at 10 percent, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 8 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent.
Poll co-director Daron Shaw, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, said the results reflect a native son effect in Texas that boosts the performance of candidates who are from here in comparison with their showings in national polls.
I was just sort of assuming that Texas was a microcosm of national politics, but that turns out not to be the case, he said.
Read more: http://www.texastribune.org/2015/06/22/uttt-poll-cruz-leads-by-a-little-clinton-by-a-lot/
Tarheel_Dem
(31,258 posts)Hillary Clinton is still an almost prohibitive favorite, but with Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden in the news for different reasons and with the primaries getting closer, we see a little bit of movement, Henson said. I wouldnt say its anything for Clinton to worry about.
Even if the support for all other candidates is combined, Shaw said, Clinton still holds a strong hand. It would take a bunch of stuff to happen to beat her, he said. One of the other candidates would have to become a credible alternative, he said, and Clinton would have to run into trouble.
I'm just guessing here, but I figure if you take out Biden, who hasn't even hinted that he's running & Elizabeth Warren who has already declared that she's not, the numbers for Hillary would explode, much like her national numbers.
Sanders is an absolute non-starter in Texas. The Texas Democratic Party isn't back to full strength yet, but it's not flat-lining any more, either. We want a candidate who can take Texas in the general and go on to win the White House.
Texans know the difference between a champion warm-blood mare and a pink unicorn.
TBF
(32,153 posts)but I don't think she can win against the republican hold here. Castro could help but I still don't think it will be enough. My hope with Texas is that we're seriously working on getting young people registered because when demographics force Texas into play we want to be ready.
okasha
(11,573 posts)in the general (Hispanic), Southeast Texas (all our coalition), Austin/Hill country ( liberal+ coalition). The only metro areas I see her weak in are Dallas/Ft. Worth and Midland /Odessa. Rural North and Panhandle will go R.
Lots of pro-Hillary murmuring among nominally conservative women.