2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFinal PPP survey of WI--Barrett within 3 points of Walker
improvement from their last poll which had Walker up 50-45, it's now Walker 50-47. Barrett leads by two points among indies, but according to PPP GOP voters are more excited to vote than Dems--we'll see about that. Men favor Walker, women favor Barrett. Now, this poll was totally done by land line, no cell phone users. I, for one, only have cell phone as do many of my friends.
Barrett has a 46/46 favorability rating, improved from 43/46 on our first poll after the primary. He's winning with women (52/46), minorities (58-36), young voters (53-39), those in Milwaukee County (61-35), and ones in greater Madison (59-37).
This is a close race, closer than it was a couple weeks ago. Scott Walker's still the favorite but Barrett's prospects for an upset look better than they have in a long time.
PPP says it will come down to turnout. Indeed it will.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com
more gop than dems interviewed, too:
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 32%
Republican...................................................... 34%
Independent/Other.......................................... 34%
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)So basically this poll is saying the democratic party has done a horrible job of getting people out to vote WTF and the rethugs are more excited so taken from this poll we are to believe that all this early voting is favoring the rethugs I've heard that before in 2004 with Ohio
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Why are you so pessimistic? Buck up
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)numbers Barrett will win.
Esse Quam Videri
(685 posts)I think that may be what Darryl was alluding to with his reference to 2004 Ohio. Seems like PPP has put out a canard about repugs being more excited to vote so when they pull out the ever so slightest win everyone will know why.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)When we don't vote, we lose. It's just that simple.
I don't blame the Democratic Party because we're being outspent nearly 30 to 1!!
LiberalFighter
(51,403 posts)They need to be blamed when they don't put together a good plan and activate it. There is not enough guidance and help from the top down of the right type. They provide some of the tools but don't push those tools to be used effectively either.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)money? What if the message is being thwarted by an aquiescent and complicit media? What if Walker continues to lie about his record but no one in the media corrects him.
We as Democrats need to wise up. This is about getting out the vote, regardless of what the Democratic Party does or does not do. We don't see the Teabaggers running around with their heads down. They fucking NEVER blame their own party. Why is it that Democrats are quick to blame the party but NOT the Republicans? Not the special interests? Not the media?
LiberalFighter
(51,403 posts)They have the tools but they aren't coordinated enough to fully implement them.
The party may be doing a fine job in certain facets of the operations but there are other parts if fully implemented would make it possible for everyone to do more because they wouldn't have to do as much prep work. If they don't have to spend as much time in one part of the operation it means they can spend more in others making them more productive.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)by a complicit media. That's what I'm seeing with my own two eyes.
To the extent that it is the Democratic Party's fault, I charge that they hate their liberal base. The liberals in the party are often silenced, while the so-called "moderates" and DLC corporatists and their Blue Dog syncophants are often put front and center. Those are typically the soft spoken, milquetoast, acquiescent Democrats that get the exposure. I do blame the party for its disdain towards the liberal base.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)the results turned out. IN the final 2010 poll Walker led by 9-points, 53-44. In the election, Barrett lost by a closer 52-47. Hopefully this poll, too, will over state Walker's vote.
LiberalFighter
(51,403 posts)Walker won by 124,638 votes in 2010.
Joseph28
(14 posts)[IMG][/IMG]much appreciated
FSogol
(45,600 posts)The problem has been most pollsters have been using a likely voter sample which assumes Republicans are more likely to vote.
This race Is all about turnout.If there Is presidental leval turnout and Barrett leads with Independents that Is bad for Walker.
Notice how Republicans are saying nothing about their intenal polling and the RNC has already started voter fraud talk which may
be their spin as why Walker Is recalled.
This poll has had Barrett go up while Walker remains the same.
If Barrett wins It may be In part because of his denate performance.
Unlike 2010 Independents are no going heavily for Republicans.So If Democrats go out and vote with Barrett leading Independents
the recall Is winable.
If Barrett wins recall It will create a shock through the country.It will force pollsters to reconsider their likely voter models.Despite
what Republicans think even polls with walker leading the recall have Obama winning In November
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)54-40, today in the final PPP poll for 2012, Barrett leads among indies by 2--48-46. Otherwise, the other demos are pretty much the same as 2010. Barrett had 88% of Dems in both surveys while Walker has 90% of GOP.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)littlewolf
(3,813 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Is this a poll result, or simply a MSM meme?