2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP: Obama lead in Ohio down to 3
Barack Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in Ohio, 47-44. But that's Obama's weakest showing in the state in PPP's polling since last October. He had led by 50-43 and 49-42 spreads in our two previous 2012 polls.
The big decline for Obama over the last couple months has been with white voters. He and Romney were basically tied with them earlier this year, but now Romney has opened up a 49-42 advantage with them. It's actually white Democrats with whom Obama's seen the biggest decline recently. In early May he had an 89-6 lead with them, but that's now declined to 78-16.
Obama's approval rating in Ohio has dipped to 44/51, a net 7 point drop from the polls earlier this year when voters split evenly on him at 48/48. That Obama has a small advantage in the state anyway is a testament to Romney's weakness as a candidate. Only 35% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 54% with a negative one. With Obama's approval numbers where they are he would almost definitely be trailing if the GOP had a top notch candidate against him- but it really just doesn't.
The breakdown of the undecideds in this race speaks to a deeply unhappy electorate. Obama's approval rating with them is 9%, with 65% disapproving of him. But Romney barely fares better, with 9% rating him favorably and 61% holding a negative opinion of him.
Obama continues to have a tenuous lead in Ohio based largely on his support with three core constituencies: African Americans (93-6), young voters (54-36), and women (52-41).
Rob Portman continues to be at the center of Vice Presidential buzz but that's not doing much to raise his profile in his home state. Only 63% of Ohio voters have an opinion about him with 32% approving and 31% disapproving. PPP's polled on almost every Senator in the country and there isn't any other one who fewer people have an opinion about in their home states. If Portman was added to the ticket it would have basically no impact on the overall numbers, with Obama leading a Romney/Portman ticket 47-43.
We also tested John Kasich and John Boehner as potential running mate choices, less because they're realistic options than because it's a good measure of the Republican brand in Ohio. Kasich has a 40/48 approval rating and if he was on the ticket Obama's lead would expand to 48/42. And Boehner has a 34/46 approval rating- if he was Romney's running mate Obama's lead would push out to 49/41. Ohio doesn't much care for its GOP politicians and that could explain part of the willingness of voters in the state to support Obama despite being less than thrilled with his job performance to date.
Obama remains a modest favorite in Ohio but his struggles with white voters are starting to make it look dicier for him.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/obama-lead-in-ohio-down-to-3.html
liberal N proud
(60,352 posts)make it look close and then it makes it look palatable.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)Can you explain how PPP is out to get Obama and why? And can you explain why the liberal Daily Kos website uses PPP as its pollster?
former9thward
(32,181 posts)Are you saying our own party is trying to steal the election from Obama?
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Happydayz
(112 posts)I'm surprised we're leading in OH at all. OH is a swing state that could swing either way, Obama was leading earlier in the year due to the rethug primaries. Now that its just Obama vs Mittens of course the polls will tighten up. The good news is that Obama doesn't have to win OH to be re-elected. There are so many pathways to 270 without OH or FL.
mikekohr
(2,312 posts)If he loses any of the 1st three, the election is over and President Obama gets re-elected.
sakabatou
(42,207 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Ohio is a tough state for Democrats. Obama doesnt need Ohio but it would make things alot easier to win it.
limpyhobbler
(8,244 posts)There is some significant grass-roots movement as related to issues with gas drilling and drinking water. Some of the concerned people overlap Democrats, independents, and Green Party (Jill Stein) activists.
I think the President's support is weaker than it could be, because of his supporting the gas companies over water drinkers. It's not too late to adjust policies, and set the EPA back on course to stop or slow the drilling. Short of that, some in clean water crowd can't distinguish the President's policies from Romney's and might go third party or stay home.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)I'm not sure if "down to 3" is the right phrase. It's 'down' from PPP's previous poll earlier in the year, but it's actually an improvement over the last 2 Ohio polls that came out. Purple Stratgies has Romney ahead by 3, and Rasmussen by 2, so this latest poll ties it up again. RCP currently gives Obama a +1.0 average. The important point is that being competitive/tied in Ohio in a rough economy is a good sign for Obama. He also has a superior ground operation in Ohio compared to Romney that could give him the edge on election day. So unless Obama falls significantly behind in Ohio, there's no need to panic, yet.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html