2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Poll: Poll shows tie race in Michigan: Obama's base more excited
Who would have thought that the polls from Ohio would be better than Michigan?
ARBOR, MI - President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in Michigan, a new poll shows, with the Republican challenger faring better among independents and the Democratic incumbent sparking more excitement in his base.
Each candidate garnered 40 percent in the statewide survey of 600 likely voters conducted June 14-15 by public relations firm Lambert, Edwards & Associates and polling company Denno Research. Twenty percent were undecided.
Eighty-seven percent of Republicans said they would vote for Romney and 85 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama. But just 56 percent of Republicans were excited to vote for Romney while 75 percent of Democrats were excited to vote for Obama.
- Female voters were evenly divided, with 40 percent favoring Romney and 40 percent favoring Obama.
"If there's a War on Women going on in Michigan, someone forgot to tell female voters," said pollster Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research and chief of staff for a Democratic state senator.
http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/06/tie_race_new_poll_shows_romney.html
Never heard of this pollster.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)So I reject this.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)since every other poll out of the state recently has showed a tie contest.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Plus, polls where there is a relatively low tally for both sides (40%) are bad polls, because "leaners" are not calculated. Thus, you get a base 40/40 poll that you would get in 40 of 50 states if this methodology were used.
For the record, this style of polling is the same way Obama received surprisingly good polling numbers out of Arizona a few months ago. Both Romney and Obama scored around 40%. This too was a bad poll for the same reason.
Obama is ahead in Michigan.
Romney is ahead in Arizona.
This is true despite any ridiculous anonymous pollster that gives a a base election 40/40 result to the contrary.
former9thward
(32,178 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)that the numbers are accurate and trustworthy.
former9thward
(32,178 posts)They are a state polling company not a national one so I have no idea of their record. However I never dismiss a poll just because I don't like the numbers.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)That's why its best to use the RCP average. It is the best method I have found to level the numbers regarding bad polls.
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)Tied among women? Also not credible.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Their methodology is suspect.
yellowcanine
(35,705 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)there are 12 swing states listed. So some are going to be closer than others. Also, this is not the first poll in recent weeks to show a close race in Michigan. I'd really like to see PPP do a new poll of Michigan.
yellowcanine
(35,705 posts)states. Many of those swing states have similar demographics to Michigan - if the lead were only 3-4 points in the 12 swing states, I would say there is a chance this poll in not an outlier but with an 8 point lead I think it is. Also I don't believe any other recent polls showed them tied in Michigan.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)by 8 in Michigan. I feel in the end Michigan will be won, but most individual polls our of Michigan do show a close race. So far the Obama campaign isn't putting a big media buy into the state (as far as I know), so they must feel fairly confident, too. If we suddenly see Obama campaigning or putting $$ into Michigan then we will know it is probably closer than it should be.
railsback
(1,881 posts)that Romney would be tied with Obama in Michigan. Romney is the guy who told this state to go 'f*ck yourself'. People aren't that stupid in the northern regions.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Case closed
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,464 posts)Or is Michigan going "red"? I know that things seem to be going downhill, politically (and in terms of democracy) in that state since the 2010 midterms.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,201 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Maybe you missed that.