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WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:50 AM Jun 2012

New Poll: Poll shows tie race in Michigan: Obama's base more excited

Who would have thought that the polls from Ohio would be better than Michigan?

ARBOR, MI - President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in Michigan, a new poll shows, with the Republican challenger faring better among independents and the Democratic incumbent sparking more excitement in his base.

Each candidate garnered 40 percent in the statewide survey of 600 likely voters conducted June 14-15 by public relations firm Lambert, Edwards & Associates and polling company Denno Research. Twenty percent were undecided.

Eighty-seven percent of Republicans said they would vote for Romney and 85 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama. But just 56 percent of Republicans were excited to vote for Romney while 75 percent of Democrats were excited to vote for Obama.

- Female voters were evenly divided, with 40 percent favoring Romney and 40 percent favoring Obama.

"If there's a War on Women going on in Michigan, someone forgot to tell female voters," said pollster Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research and chief of staff for a Democratic state senator.


http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/06/tie_race_new_poll_shows_romney.html

Never heard of this pollster.

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New Poll: Poll shows tie race in Michigan: Obama's base more excited (Original Post) WI_DEM Jun 2012 OP
Thanks, but I'm going to stick with the Rasmussen poll showing Obama +8 in Michigan bluestateguy Jun 2012 #1
for once I hope Ras is right WI_DEM Jun 2012 #2
I have never heard of this polling firm aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #3
The poll comapny is not "anonymous". It is a Democratic firm. former9thward Jun 2012 #10
Just because they are a democratic firm doesn't mean (on its own merit) aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #12
Totally agree. former9thward Jun 2012 #15
I agree 100% aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #16
20% undecided? not credible scheming daemons Jun 2012 #4
You nailed it! nt aaaaaa5a Jun 2012 #6
Agreed. That makes no sense. DCBob Jun 2012 #17
Doesn't square with the latest NBC/WSJ poll......"Romney getting hammered in the swing states" yellowcanine Jun 2012 #5
but...and I'm not saying this poll is correct... WI_DEM Jun 2012 #7
Unlikely they would be tied in Michigan though with an 8 point lead for Obama in the 12 swing yellowcanine Jun 2012 #8
No, but what I meant is that there is no guarantee that Obama is leading WI_DEM Jun 2012 #9
Preposterous railsback Jun 2012 #11
Lictman :Any polling before the Conventions are mean less bigdarryl Jun 2012 #13
Is he considered a "favorite son" in Michigan because of his late father? Proud Liberal Dem Jun 2012 #14
What of Tim Kaine in Virginia? He's dropped precipitously . . . SleeplessinSoCal Jun 2012 #18
This thread is about Michigan not Virginia. DCBob Jun 2012 #19

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
2. for once I hope Ras is right
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:57 AM
Jun 2012

since every other poll out of the state recently has showed a tie contest.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
3. I have never heard of this polling firm
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:58 AM
Jun 2012

Plus, polls where there is a relatively low tally for both sides (40%) are bad polls, because "leaners" are not calculated. Thus, you get a base 40/40 poll that you would get in 40 of 50 states if this methodology were used.

For the record, this style of polling is the same way Obama received surprisingly good polling numbers out of Arizona a few months ago. Both Romney and Obama scored around 40%. This too was a bad poll for the same reason.


Obama is ahead in Michigan.
Romney is ahead in Arizona.

This is true despite any ridiculous anonymous pollster that gives a a base election 40/40 result to the contrary.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
12. Just because they are a democratic firm doesn't mean (on its own merit)
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 01:47 PM
Jun 2012

that the numbers are accurate and trustworthy.

former9thward

(32,178 posts)
15. Totally agree.
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:36 PM
Jun 2012

They are a state polling company not a national one so I have no idea of their record. However I never dismiss a poll just because I don't like the numbers.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
16. I agree 100%
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 03:08 PM
Jun 2012

That's why its best to use the RCP average. It is the best method I have found to level the numbers regarding bad polls.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
7. but...and I'm not saying this poll is correct...
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:12 AM
Jun 2012

there are 12 swing states listed. So some are going to be closer than others. Also, this is not the first poll in recent weeks to show a close race in Michigan. I'd really like to see PPP do a new poll of Michigan.

yellowcanine

(35,705 posts)
8. Unlikely they would be tied in Michigan though with an 8 point lead for Obama in the 12 swing
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:21 AM
Jun 2012

states. Many of those swing states have similar demographics to Michigan - if the lead were only 3-4 points in the 12 swing states, I would say there is a chance this poll in not an outlier but with an 8 point lead I think it is. Also I don't believe any other recent polls showed them tied in Michigan.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
9. No, but what I meant is that there is no guarantee that Obama is leading
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:23 AM
Jun 2012

by 8 in Michigan. I feel in the end Michigan will be won, but most individual polls our of Michigan do show a close race. So far the Obama campaign isn't putting a big media buy into the state (as far as I know), so they must feel fairly confident, too. If we suddenly see Obama campaigning or putting $$ into Michigan then we will know it is probably closer than it should be.

 

railsback

(1,881 posts)
11. Preposterous
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:37 PM
Jun 2012

that Romney would be tied with Obama in Michigan. Romney is the guy who told this state to go 'f*ck yourself'. People aren't that stupid in the northern regions.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,464 posts)
14. Is he considered a "favorite son" in Michigan because of his late father?
Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:08 PM
Jun 2012


Or is Michigan going "red"? I know that things seem to be going downhill, politically (and in terms of democracy) in that state since the 2010 midterms.
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