but with polling you never know.

I think the states to watch this year are the Mid-western states. They seem to be a barometer of Obama's support and Romney's potential.

For whatever reason, states like Virginia, Colorado, Nevada etc. which were expected to be more likely to vote for Romney are trending for Obama so far. Meanwhile, states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and perhaps Pennsylvania are showing a closer race than expected. The fact that Obama appears to have lost ground to Romney in MI and WI is something the Obama campaign needs to watch. And obviously Ohio will be an important barometer too.