Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,184 posts)Mahalo, Goth!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... compared to outliers and online polls. BS will not be our party's nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,762 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
boomer_wv
(673 posts)who doesn't understand why this happened when no new state polls have come out...
The 538 model assumes correlation with other state and national polls. So, since we have seen some decline in Buttigieg numbers nationally and Biden has seen some of his best polls lately, you get movement like this.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)It looks like Democrats are consistently picking the candidate who has been the most unifying! The in-fighting has worked against the candidates engaged in it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)She is saving our party.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)or at least minimize the harm he can cause our nominee. This team primary nonsense that some of Warren and Biden supporters are talking about will cost us the general if we end up with a brokered convention..so Biden's margins in the end must be bigger than their combined delegate count.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)They're both pulling enough support to hang on. But the longer they both stay in the race, the better for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)number of voters would support Sanders ...as more than a few Hillary supporters in Warren's numbers.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Midnight Writer
(21,753 posts)With these candidates clustered so closely, the decision will go to the candidate with the best boots on the ground.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)candidates. If they insist on keeping caucuses...they need to go last next time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)That would be devastating for the frontrunner.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)nomination. Thus he won't be the nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Losing the first two states might not completely derail Biden, but it wont be a good thing for him. The only way to keep this in the bag is if he wins all the early states. If one candidate wins the first two states they are likely to have a lot of momentum to cipher enough votes in sc that would hinder Biden in super tuesday. "Denial is not just a river in egypt." As they say.
That being said, if Biden wins both states, it is basically game over for anybody else. Based on polls, that is also a very likely option.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
thewhollytoast
(318 posts)Frag - Order
Kids it is time to fix bayonets and push these mutherfuckers back into the sea.
Colonel Biden forget your losses and protect the rear.
Sergeant Major Bernie rally the troops! We have new people coming in.
Toast
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)As long as they are within 1 point, and even more when they are exponentially within the moe. Everybody knows Sanders over performs well in caucus states, and he is polling ahead already in NH. Winning IA, even by the slmissest margins puts him on track to win IA and NH. No candidate has won both without also winning the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to Gothmog (Original post)
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Tarheel_Dem
(31,233 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
PhoenixDem
(581 posts)he will be a close second or a close third in a neck to neck race, taking away the thunder of winning from anyone at the top.
Biden will win Nevada and then sweep SC, winning all the delegates there and in a lead that he will never lose after that.
Go Joe!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)If there is an effective tie, then Biden will clean up in South Carolina
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Mayor Pete is leading in 3 of the last 4 Iowa Polls published .. Nate has him in 3rd place ? Nate is an obvious supporter of Biden Silver is constantly talking up Biden's prospects , while describing Bernie's supporter as "residue" ...He is the genius who stated Trump would never win the GOP nomination- when it was obvious he had a real chance of doing so . The "numbers man" lets his personal opinions cloud his analysis of the data Hence , he has lost some of his credibility .
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BannonsLiver
(16,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
treestar
(82,383 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Joe941
(2,848 posts)And coalesce around bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
oasis
(49,379 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)Link to tweet
This week, Bidens Iowa fortunes picked up again when he landed perhaps the most influential Iowa endorsement to date Rep. Abby Finkenauer, the second youngest person ever elected to Congress. That followed on the heels of endorsement from two other influential state Democrats Tom Vilsack, a former governor and U.S. secretary of Agriculture, and his wife, Christie and a well-timed cash infusion in TV ads from a pro-Biden superPAC.
Bidens rebound comes amid a concentrated effort here. From Nov. 30 through this weekend, Biden will have spent 16 days in Iowa. By caucus day, he will have spent $4 million in integrated paid media, including broadcast TV, cable, Hulu, and social media.
The former vice president is on a second extended bus tour now and the campaign just announced a separate surrogate bus tour next week with former Secretary of State John Kerry, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, and various federal and state lawmakers from across the country.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden