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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(108,304 posts)
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 03:51 PM Jan 2020

Harrop: Bernie Sanders' phantom momentum

By Froma Harrop / syndicated columnist

A late-December flurry of articles on a revival of Bernie Sanders’ prospects points to a cardinal rule of political journalism: The story must change. Whether the story has actually changed matters not.

Thus, we had a headline in The New York Times reading, “Why Bernie Sanders Is Tough to Beat,” and one in Politico that said, “Democratic Insiders: Bernie Could Win the Nomination.” The polls, however, have barely budged.

In a humorous tweet saying, “ThE PriMaRy HaS BeEn A CrAzY UnPrEDiCtAbLe RoLLer CoAsTer RiDe,” statistical analyst Nate Silver compared recent RealClearPolitics averages for Joe Biden and Sanders to those of a year ago. On Dec. 19, 2018, Biden was at 27.5 percent and Sanders at 19 percent. Exactly a year later, Biden was at 27.8 percent and Sanders at 19.3 percent.

The first poll after the December debate, Silver tweeted, showed “not a heck of a lot going on.” Andrew Yang, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg each gained a point. Bernie and Michael Bloomberg lost one.

-more-

https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/harrop-bernie-sanders-phantom-momentum/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
25 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Harrop: Bernie Sanders' phantom momentum (Original Post) Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jan 2020 OP
Great post, thanks..... George II Jan 2020 #1
Interesting and relevant stats about heart attacks! R B Garr Jan 2020 #2
Lots of cherry-picking went into the "momentum" claims. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #3
The candidates that have dropped out should have no effect on Bernie's support. Blue_true Jan 2020 #14
Dear Froma Harrop ritapria Jan 2020 #4
Bernie's fundraising doesn't equate to momentum. This article has it exactly right. R B Garr Jan 2020 #5
Fundraising isn't momentum. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #6
Money doesn't vote. Blue_true Jan 2020 #15
This. BlueMTexpat Jan 2020 #23
I am done at an 80 yr old man had a heart attack a couple months ago. Lexee Jan 2020 #7
Good article Gothmog Jan 2020 #8
A hit piece taking an opposite of reality position. Complete garbage. Joe941 Jan 2020 #9
Why? Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jan 2020 #10
Bernie is not surging. In fact the opposite seems to be the case, Biden is Blue_true Jan 2020 #16
K&R betsuni Jan 2020 #11
The surge that wasn't. Scurrilous Jan 2020 #12
K&R highplainsdem Jan 2020 #13
I'm getting a CT angiogram tomorrow. I'll pass on the cardiac care patients. comradebillyboy Jan 2020 #17
i sEE wHat YoU diD THeRe. Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #18
...hey Froma... myohmy2 Jan 2020 #19
And you just proved that the comparison was right on the money NYMinute Jan 2020 #21
"Phantom" succinctly describes a lot of things in that campaign NYMinute Jan 2020 #20
Sanders should appreciate this non-pack-journalism view Hortensis Jan 2020 #22
In order to cancel out Biden's massive lead in the south, Bernie needs huge leads with white voters Gothmog Jan 2020 #24
In 2016 some were trashing the south as the Confederacy when Hillary won there Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jan 2020 #25
 

R B Garr

(16,995 posts)
2. Interesting and relevant stats about heart attacks!
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 03:59 PM
Jan 2020

And this gem is quite the understatement, but so extremely relevant:

"Also, not all Democrats love Bernie’s bashing of the leadership or how he slips in and out of the party, reenlisting when an election approaches."

From the polls, it looks like those bashing Democrats have not been rewarded.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,499 posts)
3. Lots of cherry-picking went into the "momentum" claims.
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 04:05 PM
Jan 2020

That's the problem with only believing polls that show one's candidate in a positive light and ignoring the rest. Or looking at clear outliers as the only "true" polls.

Sanders is basically where he was in May, both nationally and in some early states like Iowa, and that's with several candidates dropping out. He seems to have a ceiling of roughly 20% on a national scale this time around. That may change as the field whittles down to three or four, of course.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
14. The candidates that have dropped out should have no effect on Bernie's support.
Sat Jan 4, 2020, 12:34 AM
Jan 2020

Someone like Warren would have to drop out, and I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Trump's recent insanity and Biden's perfect statement makes the case for Biden even stronger.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ritapria

(1,812 posts)
4. Dear Froma Harrop
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 04:11 PM
Jan 2020

Thanks for bring up the fact that Bernie had a heart attack ….That there is a one in 5 chance he may readmitted to hospital for heart issues within the next 5 years …. Class Argument ….Bernie has ZERO Momentum she averts ….I guess she penned this classic before learning about Bernie's Q4 fundraising total was announced … Bernie raised 34.5 million in Q4 ..Pete 24.7 ..Joe 22.7 million dollars ….. 300,000 new donors in Q4 …..40, 000 new donors on December 31 alone ….. Thank you Froma for informing us that this is all a grand illusion ….

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

R B Garr

(16,995 posts)
5. Bernie's fundraising doesn't equate to momentum. This article has it exactly right.
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 04:18 PM
Jan 2020

The polls have shown the reality for Bernie. He remains well behind Biden. Fundraising could be a collective effort of many outside influences, not anything to do with actual voters, edit, also contributing $1 repeatedly doesn't mean he gets to claim they are all donations from separate individuals, lol.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,499 posts)
6. Fundraising isn't momentum.
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 04:18 PM
Jan 2020

He's been within a couple of points either side of 18% nationally since May, even with several candidates dropping out of the race. He may be raising a lot of money, but so far, there's little evidence that it's generating momentum.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
15. Money doesn't vote.
Sat Jan 4, 2020, 12:36 AM
Jan 2020

Joe Biden and Liz Warren have the money that they need to move ahead. Bernie outraised Hillary in 2016, but she beat him pretty soundly once voters spoke.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BlueMTexpat

(15,374 posts)
23. This.
Sun Jan 5, 2020, 08:22 PM
Jan 2020

And many of us remember all too well how Bernie - and his supporters - acted towards Hillary in 2016.

Even had Hillary won the Electoral College vote in 2016 (she DID win the popular vote, as we all remember), I suspect that he would have primaried her in this electiion and that his supporters would have been as obnoxious to her this time around as they were then.

When voters actually begin to vote, reality should set in.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Lexee

(377 posts)
7. I am done at an 80 yr old man had a heart attack a couple months ago.
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 04:21 PM
Jan 2020

There are many reasons I would never want Sanders to represent our Democratic Party, but a heart attack two months ago with a man hitting 80 and a horrible track record of hiring good, solid, smart Democrats has me saying, no way.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Joe941

(2,848 posts)
9. A hit piece taking an opposite of reality position. Complete garbage.
Fri Jan 3, 2020, 08:27 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(108,304 posts)
10. Why?
Fri Jan 3, 2020, 08:30 PM
Jan 2020

Because it says what you don't want to hear?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
16. Bernie is not surging. In fact the opposite seems to be the case, Biden is
Sat Jan 4, 2020, 12:39 AM
Jan 2020

slowly opening up more of a gap on Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

comradebillyboy

(10,179 posts)
17. I'm getting a CT angiogram tomorrow. I'll pass on the cardiac care patients.
Sat Jan 4, 2020, 12:52 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

myohmy2

(3,182 posts)
19. ...hey Froma...
Sat Jan 4, 2020, 10:25 AM
Jan 2020

" Sanders, not unlike President Trump, has a cultlike following, which means few leave him but also few join up. "

...you like lumping Bernie with trump?

...don't worry, as Bernie pulls ahead in the primaries, we'll be sucking up all that extra support...


...I'll bet your boy wishes he had some of that 'cult-like' following charisma...

...good luck, but I don't see it happening...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NYMinute

(3,256 posts)
21. And you just proved that the comparison was right on the money
Sat Jan 4, 2020, 10:28 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NYMinute

(3,256 posts)
20. "Phantom" succinctly describes a lot of things in that campaign
Sat Jan 4, 2020, 10:27 AM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
22. Sanders should appreciate this non-pack-journalism view
Sun Jan 5, 2020, 10:14 AM
Jan 2020

since he objects to that so much. Or maybe not.

Lol, "not a heck of a lot going on." We certainly see Sanders locked far behind, not just a lack of momentum, here.

Not to excuse negative -- and absolutely not the dirty, lying politics of a couple, but these numbers show why some good candidates felt forced to go negative against others to break out. And trying to appeal to decent Democrats that way was mostly like spitting into the wind -- ended up with spittle on their own faces and that's about all.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,667 posts)
24. In order to cancel out Biden's massive lead in the south, Bernie needs huge leads with white voters
Sun Jan 5, 2020, 08:29 PM
Jan 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(108,304 posts)
25. In 2016 some were trashing the south as the Confederacy when Hillary won there
Sun Jan 5, 2020, 09:43 PM
Jan 2020

They're still Americans and a large number of southern Democrats are black.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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