Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBREAKING: CBS News Iowa Poll: Buttigieg 23, Biden 23, Sanders 23
Link to tweet
What this means is: set the polls aside as a determining factor. The candidates sink or swim on the basis of their ground operations. Warren has the best ground operation in Iowa, and Buttigieg is probably second.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,813 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)anything coming out CBS since it is a FOX channel.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,821 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Nice to see both Warren and Klobuchar moving up again.
Buttigieg's lead is gone, I suppose people went back to Biden and Klobuchar.
Sanders is right in there too.
It's great that voting is finally about to start!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)Buttigieg, Sanders..........
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,735 posts)Nevada and South Carolina are important. Biden will win both...and on super Tuesday...I think he will be the nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dsc
(52,170 posts)for the record I haven't a clue if they did that or not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,735 posts)determine our nominee...pretty much.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
karynnj
(59,507 posts)it is interesting to consider how this would play in Iowa. From past years, it seemed that in each place where there is a caucus, only candidates with over 15% would get a delegate to go to the state convention. I don't remember if a second threshold of 15% is then employed to get the delegate counts for the state. I think it is the percents computed based on the delegates going to the state convention that is reported and drives public perception of who wins.
Consider further that no candidate's support will be evenly split over the state. I remember in 2008, that Edwards narrowly beat Clinton because of his support in rural areas. In 2004, there were places where Howard Dean missed the threshold - even though he got 18% of the delegates state wide.
What is different from 2004, 2008 and 2016 is that there are more people likely to matter. It is entirely possible that all 5 of those listed will share the delegates. This would be most likely if Klobuchar's support is very unevenly spread. I am sure that each of the campaigns have Iowa expert analysts trying to model how the caucus process to assess where they are and whether there are opportunities to get more.
Any Iowa people or others who have actually been involved in prior years?? (I only watched the 2 caucus location documented on CSPAN in 2004 - when I started watching, I would never have guessed I would become interested enough to stay for hours!)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,722 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden