Democratic Primaries

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts) Fri Jan 10, 2020, 07:05 PM Jan 2020

New Iowa Poll ...CNN U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders leads Updated with details from poll

Update...CNN says still a four way tie...3.6 margin of error.

Bernie ahead within margin of error...but very close...had hoped it would be more decisive Oh well.

"U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field three weeks ahead of Caucus Day in Iowa — narrowly overtaking his closest competitors, who remain locked in a tight contest just behind him.

A new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 20% of likely Democratic caucusgoers name Sanders as their first choice for president.

After a surge of enthusiasm that pushed Pete Buttigieg to the top of the field in November, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor has faded, falling 9 percentage points to land behind both Sanders and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Warren is at 17%; Buttigieg, 16%; and former Vice President Joe Biden, 15%.

“There’s no denying that this is a good poll for Bernie Sanders. He leads, but it’s not an uncontested lead,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “He’s got a firmer grip on his supporters than the rest of his compatriots.”

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2020/01/10/iowa-poll-2020-bernie-sanders-lead-iowa-caucus-president-election/4426492002/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

13 replies

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New Iowa Poll ...CNN U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders leads Updated with details from poll (Original Post) Demsrule86 Jan 2020 OP

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #1

wishful thinking...where does Bernie go after Iowa with his dismal AA support? And CNN is calling it Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #3

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #6

Not in every poll in California... And Nevada doesn't have a caucus anymore so unlikely . Biden is Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #7

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #9

You are right...if they keep it they should go last next time...caucuses are unDemocratic...but Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #10

Curiously, what turned you on Elizebeth Warren? marble falls Jan 2020 #8

Oh and Biden didn't lose support...I hope Sanders enjoys his extra five delegates if he gets them... Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #5

So with 41 delegates, TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #2

Yep, and who knows how it will turn out. I do think this is bad for Warren too who needed a Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #4

40% decided for a January poll is very low. judeling Jan 2020 #11

I thought so...I think it will be pretty even...no one will take many delegates...I think Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #12

Don't count on the AA comunity judeling Jan 2020 #13

Response to Demsrule86 (Original post)

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Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

3. wishful thinking...where does Bernie go after Iowa with his dismal AA support? And CNN is calling it

Reply to Name removed (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 07:31 PM

Jan 2020

a four way tie which doesn't hurt Biden...but it does hurt Buttigieg and Warren as well. Sanders can hang on but when we hit diverse states,it is curtains.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #3)

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Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

7. Not in every poll in California... And Nevada doesn't have a caucus anymore so unlikely . Biden is

Reply to Name removed (Reply #6)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 07:56 PM

Jan 2020

ahead by all reports...and then we hit the south...Sander's Waterloo. What did he say about identity politics.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #7)

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Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

10. You are right...if they keep it they should go last next time...caucuses are unDemocratic...but

Reply to Name removed (Reply #9)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 08:32 PM

Jan 2020

have changed their rules. They will allow early voting...which makes it a bit more fair..and will help Biden I think.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

marble falls

(57,397 posts)

8. Curiously, what turned you on Elizebeth Warren?

Reply to Name removed (Reply #6)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 08:02 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

5. Oh and Biden didn't lose support...I hope Sanders enjoys his extra five delegates if he gets them...

Reply to Name removed (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 07:33 PM

Jan 2020

it will like not be such good news on Super Tuesday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TexasTowelie

(112,551 posts)

2. So with 41 delegates,

Reply to Demsrule86 (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 07:16 PM

Jan 2020

the top choice gets 14 delegates, while the other three candidates get 9 delegates each. Hardly the death knell for Biden since he wasn't the favorite in either Iowa or New Hampshire. We'll have a much better idea of how the race will turn out after Super Tuesday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

4. Yep, and who knows how it will turn out. I do think this is bad for Warren too who needed a

Reply to TexasTowelie (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 07:32 PM

Jan 2020

win in either Iowa or New Hampshire...and where do they go with such a tiny amount of AA support? Buttigieg is gone if this holds.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

judeling

(1,086 posts)

11. 40% decided for a January poll is very low.

Reply to Demsrule86 (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 08:49 PM

Jan 2020

After the holidays the race tends to solidify in Iowa to a much greater extent. What this poll says is nobody knows what will happen.

Sanders is in a good place and is almost assured of having a fair outcome as his support has always ben the most solid. While in this poll I didn't see the crosstab for it but in most others he has 60 to 65% of his supporters solid.

So Bernie will have a top three finish but nobody else is assured that and That will matter a ton for New Hampshire and all after.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Demsrule86

(68,735 posts)

12. I thought so...I think it will be pretty even...no one will take many delegates...I think

Reply to judeling (Reply #11)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 08:59 PM

Jan 2020

Warren is in trouble if she doesn't win Iowa or New Hampshire. I also think Amy needs to do better than single digits or she is out also. Biden and Sanders both move on. But Sanders has little support within the AA community so he is not going to be the nominee IMHO. I think buttigieg is toast win or lose. There is no place for him to go after Iowa and New Hampshire.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

judeling

(1,086 posts)

13. Don't count on the AA comunity

Reply to Demsrule86 (Reply #12)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 09:39 PM

Jan 2020

If Bernie goes into SC with 3 solid wins Biden is in more trouble then you think.

I don't see that actually as I think Iowa will preclude that. Bernie could surely win but it is entirely possible that Biden consolidates the rest in time for New Hampshire.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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