....subsequent ballots.

Chances are the majority, indeed most, of them will vote for an "establishment Democrat", and most likely the candidate who had the most pledged delegates during the first ballot.

one who doesn't go around insulting the people who work so hard to make the Democratic party strong.

The "whatever" could be "the candidate which polls show as beating Trump most decisively."

If it were me voting in that situation, I'd look at (a) someone who is nearly certain to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and (b) the one who polls show getting the most electoral college votes, which also translates to the strongest coattails. By November, we will have plenty of polling available to have determined these things.

I know lots of people here are saying essentially "anyone but Sanders," but if Sanders was the one who best met those qualifications, I think it would be silly not to choose him, it would be cutting off your nose to spite your face. And I suspect that actual voting delegates are more pragmatic and less dogmatic compared to many people on this forum.

If one of the remaining candidates has a clear edge (but not a majority) after the first ballot, I think there will be a shift to that candidate to close the deal.

Unless it's Sanders, then I'm not sure what happens. It's hard to imagine that establishment Dems will switch their support to him after his campaign has spent a lot of time essentially blaming them for the ills of the party.

If the nomination goes to a second ballot, I would hope one or more candidates would pledge their delegates to another candidate with a better chance of winning a majority.

I could live with a nominee who wins by a margin greater than the number of super delegates.

If a nominee’s majority is made possible solely by the support of super delegates, I predict that will have a significant negative impact on voter turnout, especially among young voters.

even before Burnie people diminished their power in hope of messing our convention, they pretty much stuck with the majority winner (exc: 2008). So, I don't see Burnie's dream of winning with a minority votes coming true.

Assuming for sake of argument that Sanders, Warren, and Biden remain, I think it's Biden or Warren. The Sanders campaign has spent a lot of time attacking the party and the "establishment", and I doubt that's going to engender a lot of support from those same so-called establishment Democrats.

It's also curious that his campaign talks about a brokered convention, but they have, in essence, shot themselves in the foot if they think that's their best chance to win.

That leaves Warren and Biden. Movement from Sanders plus votes from the SDs would likely put one or the other over the top.

And that thought warms my heart.

His surrogates are self professed enemies of the Democratic Party, who poisoned the well in 2016, and are running amok again. Whatever policy differences the candidates may have, a strong majority of delegates at the convention will not want to see those people anywhere near the next Democratic Administration.


Here's the deal - Sander's delegates will support you if Briahna Joy Gray gets White House Press Secretary. Pass.

Something I need to think about more because it might well happen. I believe it will work out, but it’ll be interesting.

if the supers pick the nominee I fear the result

and so all candidates should keep that in mind.

Will support the candidate with the most votes. As they have always done.

Last edited Sat Jan 11, 2020, 02:32 AM - Edit history (2)

and ended up losing 49 states to Ronald Reagan.

Nt

but McGovern lost that badly to Nixon. Not sure about the delegate votes for either one, though.

Because if a candidate gets a majority fo the votes, even if under 50% and then is pushed out by super delegates, it's basically telling millions of primary voters their vote didn't matter. It will suppress the vote.

who can unify the party, not someone who is adored by a minority.

have the super delegates overturn Hillary's primary win? Not refighting the last primary, just putting things in perspective.

be, but it won't be necessary...by Super Tuesday...the nominee will become apparent...if what you describe happens ...Trump wins. It won't supers exist for this purpose.

I doubt they will pick the one with a couple more percent than the others, if that person is viewed as extreme and/or divisive.

thing to do is to put the winner of the primary over the top...and I would bet that is what will happen.

vs. 33 for Biden, and 32% for Warren.

For example.

Has the most votes, then he should get the nomination.

It’s more likely though that person will be Biden.

the delegates should choose a nominee who can unite the party, not someone who won by only appealing to his or her small segment of fervent supporters.

The last time a candidate won the primaries with less than a majority and was put over the top in the convention was in 1984 with Walter Mondale -- who lost by 49 states.

Maybe the delegates should have given some thought to picking a stronger candidate.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/

And the last time a leading candidate came to his or her convention with less than a majority of delegates was 1984, when Walter Mondale was a few dozen short.

Anyone finishing second or lower has even less support. That isnt unifying.

The top vote getter will be and should be the nominee.

who can best address all their concerns.

If most people turn out, for example, to have some candidate as a SECOND choice, that candidate might be the most unifying.

Mayor Pete’s supporters might choose Biden second. Or maybe Warren. Or Steyer. There is no way to ever know without ranked choice.

So rather then guess, the fair way is for the actual winner to be the nominee.

You don’t want that, because you understand that Biden is likely to be that person. Sorry, that’s the way voting works.

I think, because of the vehemence of his narrow group of supporters, the winner with a small plurality could be Bernie.

Will not win the southern primaries. If the others even split the northern ones, then Biden’s southern strength will get him the most delegates.

The only way Bernie can get the nod is to have Warren supporters give him all their delegates. He won’t finish first on his own. Not without AA support, which he doesn’t have, and can’t get.

That being said...it won't be that close...I think Warren is out and soon. She needed to win Iowa or New Hampshire or both...There is nowhere for her to go once we hit diverse states...she is polling very badly with AA voters...and Sanders isn't much better....so I would be that Biden has a substantial lead by Super Tuesday.

happens. No need to speculate about it now because we don't know.

that attacking the Democratic party and alienating Hillary-2106 voters isn't the best way to earn the support of delegates and superdelegates at the convention.

When you have polls though showing Sanders and Warren may not win Virginia...you better consider carefully.

opposing that usurper in the White House.

Remind me again the last time we had a brokered convention?

Even I'm not old enough to remember.

Well before the end of the primary season we will have a known candidate.

Back then very few states had actual primaries or caucuses, which meant that getting delegates was a very lengthy process of wheeling and dealing.

There was a distant chance that the 1968 Democratic National Convention might possibly have gone to multiple ballots, had RFK not been assassinated. But he was, and Humphrey got the nomination.

No, it didn't.

at the convention itself, not in the primaries.

From the article in the OP

It was not a true brokered convention.

Perhaps there is a distant possibility that this year, since the super delegates won't be able to vote in the first round, no candidate will have a clear majority and there actually will be a brokered convention. But I seriously doubt it.

Again, every four years people just moon over the possibility of a brokered convention. I'm not sure why. In fact, we should all be enthusiastically supporting one candidate, the same candidate, early on. Because a brokered convention, no matter which candidates are involved, will almost guarantee that many of those supporting the losing candidate(s) will either not vote in November, or will spitefully vote for a third party candidate. And then the only interesting thing left to discuss will be if the inaugural crowds for Trump in 2021 will be larger, smaller, or the same pitiful numbers as four years earlier.

If the same scenario were to happen today, if someone came to the convention still 40 votes short, then it would have to go to the 2nd ballot, because the rules change means superdelegates can't vote until then.

has more than one ballot. In fact, if you google "Last brokered Democratic Convention" it brings up 1952. Not 1984.

Settled by super delegates before the first ballot is hardly the definition of a brokered convention.

I realize you and I are quibbling over a relatively minor detail here. Meanwhile, I have a fair amount of confidence that by April we'll know who the nominee is going to be.

and he was put over the top by superdelegates, which could only happen at the convention itself -- and today could only happen in a second ballot.

Rather not see as our nominee. All the other top tier DEMOCRATIC candidates I am 100% behind for the nomination

for for the candidate who has the plurality of votes. That is most likely to be Biden, based on current polling. Since almost all superdelegates are either elected officials or elected members of the DNC, it will not be difficult for them to vote for a well-established candidate like Biden.

That's my expectation, although I believe that Biden will come to the convention with a majority of delegates, which will make a second vote unnecessary. If, there is a second vote, though, Biden will win on that vote.

That's my prediction, based on my experience.

Do you still think the supers will help him rather than someone seen as more unifying?

Really, I think the only question is how much of a margin Biden has over Bernie. Again, there are likely to be three names in play at the convention. Biden has maintained a steady lead over the next two candidates, so if there are three, that will probably continue. If that occurs, Biden will have a solid plurality come convention time. The superdelegates will have a clear choice in Biden as the leader.

If there are four candidates with delegates, I would predict that one of them has less than 15% of the delegates, and that candidate will be more to the center than the left. That would further increase the gap in Biden's favor on the second vote, since the candidate with less than 15% would be out of the running at that point. His or her delegates would probably also shift to Biden.

I can see no scenario where it goes beyond a second vote, frankly.

The candidate with less than 15% of the delegates, however, would be in the running for the VP slot, as well, although so probably would be Elizabeth Warren if Biden is going to be the nominee, but needs more delegates. I think he'd prefer a younger woman as the VP nominee, though, with both Harris and Klobuchar as good candidates for that.

I'm projecting way too far out in the future with this, but that's my guess on how it will go.