Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,059 posts) Mon Jan 13, 2020, 09:59 PM Jan 2020

Nate Silver: Today's polls improve Biden's chances, lower Sanders'

Link to tweet

Quite a bit of new data today, including new IA and NH polls, and here's how the numbers have changed since Friday:

Majority chances:
Biden 39% (+2%)
Sanders 22% (-2%)
NO MAJORITY 16% (+2%)
Warren 13% (—)
Buttigieg 9% (-1%)

Today's polls have basically offset the impact of the Des Moines Register poll showing Sanders leading in Iowa for the first time.

Today another Iowa poll that's also A+ rated has Biden ahead.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

18 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver: Today's polls improve Biden's chances, lower Sanders' (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

This is such good news! Cha Jan 2020 #1

Oh there's gonna be some teeth gnashing over this one!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #2

Yay! LakeArenal Jan 2020 #3

highplainsdem, thanks a bunch for posting this! :) Sloumeau Jan 2020 #4

This doesn't even factor in Booker's withdrawal today, which overall should help Biden, too. George II Jan 2020 #5

Tweet from a Morning Consult editor on that: highplainsdem Jan 2020 #6

Yes, that's nationally. I'm sure he had more support in some individual states. George II Jan 2020 #7

Good point. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #10

Nate said those 39% odds hold ONLY if Biden wins IA Fiendish Thingy Jan 2020 #8

No.. before the latest poll Silver said Biden's chances were at 37%, now 39% Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #9

The clip I saw was Silver talking about THIS poll nt Fiendish Thingy Jan 2020 #11

His model boomer_wv Jan 2020 #12

Here's the clip: Fiendish Thingy Jan 2020 #13

bIDEn iS sURgIng!!!!111!!! Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #14

Biden is risin'--Hmmm! They were just saying that about Sanders! UncleNoel Jan 2020 #15

iT's reaLLy PEculiar, aIN't iT? Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #16

LOL! You ain't right!... Kahuna7 Jan 2020 #17

Please put a warning on that graphic. Scared the s**t outta me. Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #18

Cha

(297,851 posts)

1. This is such good news!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:02 PM

Jan 2020

TY, hpd

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

2. Oh there's gonna be some teeth gnashing over this one!!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:04 PM

Jan 2020

Thx for posting highplainsdem!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LakeArenal

(28,863 posts)

3. Yay!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:05 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)

4. highplainsdem, thanks a bunch for posting this! :)

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:07 PM

Jan 2020

This is good news for Joe Biden!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

5. This doesn't even factor in Booker's withdrawal today, which overall should help Biden, too.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:08 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,059 posts)

6. Tweet from a Morning Consult editor on that:

Reply to George II (Reply #5)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:15 PM

Jan 2020

Link to tweet

Latest @MorningConsult 2020 data shows @CoryBooker's support heading the following way:

Biden: 23%
Sanders: 20%
Warren: 14%
Buttigieg: 12%

He's only at 2%, so his exit doesn't change much.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

7. Yes, that's nationally. I'm sure he had more support in some individual states.

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:27 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,059 posts)

10. Good point.

Reply to George II (Reply #7)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:55 PM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Fiendish Thingy

(15,689 posts)

8. Nate said those 39% odds hold ONLY if Biden wins IA

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:34 PM

Jan 2020

If he doesn’t win IA, his odds of getting a majority drop to 20%, according to Silver.

Video clip of Silver’s analysis has been posted here on DU, just can’t find it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,813 posts)

9. No.. before the latest poll Silver said Biden's chances were at 37%, now 39%

Reply to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 13, 2020, 10:53 PM

Jan 2020

Link to tweet

?s=21

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Fiendish Thingy

(15,689 posts)

11. The clip I saw was Silver talking about THIS poll nt

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #9)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 01:06 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

boomer_wv

(673 posts)

12. His model

Reply to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #11)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 01:16 AM

Jan 2020

had Biden 2nd in Iowa and with a 37ish% chance to win last night, so I doubt that's what he was saying.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Fiendish Thingy

(15,689 posts)

13. Here's the clip:

Reply to boomer_wv (Reply #12)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 01:37 AM

Jan 2020

About a minute in, Silver says if Biden wins IA, he has an 80% chance to win a majority of the delegates, however, if he loses IA, the odds of him getting a majority of delegates drops to 20%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided