Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts) Tue Jan 14, 2020, 08:45 AM Jan 2020

1/14 Morning Consult, EARLY PRIMARY STATES: Biden 27%, Sanders 19%, Steyer 15%, Warren 12%,

Buttigieg 9%, Bloomberg 5%

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

1/14 Morning Consult, EARLY PRIMARY STATES: Biden 27%, Sanders 19%, Steyer 15%, Warren 12%, (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

Thank goodness you posted this three times; I might have missed the first two... brooklynite Jan 2020 #1

Three different results, each of which deserved a subject line. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #3

Caucus v Primary Election DownriverDem Jan 2020 #2

LOL!! Morning Consult's Best Yet! crazytown Jan 2020 #4

Steyer's spending heavily in early primary states. Fox News also found him doing well there. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #5

Yes. I do remember. I wrote a piece on it and scored a hide which has stuck. crazytown Jan 2020 #6

brooklynite

(94,818 posts)

1. Thank goodness you posted this three times; I might have missed the first two...

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:21 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts)

3. Three different results, each of which deserved a subject line.

Reply to brooklynite (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:33 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DownriverDem

(6,232 posts)

2. Caucus v Primary Election

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:27 AM

Jan 2020

This just shows the difference between a caucus and a primary election. A caucus is held in a room where you get your supporters to show up and vote. A primary election is where a larger number of voters take part and they are more diverse.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

4. LOL!! Morning Consult's Best Yet!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:44 AM

Jan 2020

They should be doing standup. Steyer could win this thing! Charles Foster Kane would be proud.

I put this poll right up there with the HarrisX +20 Biden result when Warren was leading/tied with him on the RCP average. In that case, it was more foibles of the principals, Rasmussen and Penn, in this presumably the sensitivity of panelees clicking of their internet questionnaires in the thick of TV/Facebook firebombing. Bang!

Amazing stuff.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts)

5. Steyer's spending heavily in early primary states. Fox News also found him doing well there.

Reply to crazytown (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:57 AM

Jan 2020

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-heck-is-going-on-with-tom-steyers-poll-numbers/

Last Thursday, billionaire activist Tom Steyer picked up two really good early-state polls that catapulted him onto the debate stage at the last minute. He hit 15 percent in a Fox News poll of South Carolina — he had 4 percent support in October — and 12 percent in a Fox News poll of Nevada, up from 5 percent in November.

These results had pretty big repercussions for Steyer in both our Nevada and South Carolina state polling averages, putting him at 8 percent in Nevada and 10 percent in South Carolina, as of Monday afternoon. For context, that South Carolina number is roughly the same as Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s:

-snip-

Again, it’s hard to know exactly what’s behind this uptick in Steyer’s numbers, but one obvious explanation is his prodigious spending on broadcast television ads. According to data from Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group, Steyer ads aired 5,721 times in Nevada-based media markets and 7,914 times in South Carolina-based markets from Dec. 1 through Jan. 9.1 The other Democratic candidates combined have aired six spots in Nevada and 2,195 in South Carolina during that same time period.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

6. Yes. I do remember. I wrote a piece on it and scored a hide which has stuck.

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #5)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:28 AM

Jan 2020

But no, I do believe for a NYminute that 15% would vote for Steyer in SC if the primary was held today., for the reasons I stated then -

If you are being bombarded with ads, then called aside to answer a call, or fill in an internet prompt, the response is Pavlovian. 91% of all political adverting, from any party was from Steyer in the week in question. $11 million on TV and Facebook.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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