Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts) Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:30 AM Jan 2020

Morning Consult finds Sanders outdoes Biden in GE matchups against Trump, in SOME voter blocs, BUT

they're voter blocs that are less likely to vote than the blocs Biden leads with.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/14/why-bernie-sanders-is-electable-too/

Sanders outperforms the former vice president against Trump among voters ages 18-29, those who are not at all interested in politics and self-described independents — just as he does in primary election polling against Biden.

Everyone here should be aware that the youngest voters tend to be the least reliable.

And it should be self-evident that those who are "not at all interested in politics" probably can't be counted on to turn out, at least not in numbers comparable to other groups of voters.

As for self-described independents, see this Pew Research report from last May:

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/15/facts-about-us-political-independents/

4. Independents – particularly the 7% of Americans who don’t lean toward a party – are less politically engaged than partisans. In a survey conducted shortly after the November 2018 midterm election, just a third of those who don’t lean toward either party (33%) reported voting. Democratic leaners (48%) and Republican leaners (54%) were considerably more likely to say they voted, though both groups reported lower rates of voting than partisans.

I'm not particularly impressed that Sanders leads Biden among groups less likely to vote. Expecially since the group where he has the most substantial lead, the youngest voters, are probably mostly responding to the promise of free college and student loan debt forgiveness, whatever the amount, whatever the income level. Those favoring Sanders for that reason are likely to hear plenty before the election -- if they're listening to the news at all -- about why Sanders would never be able to deliver on that very expensive promise.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

12 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Morning Consult finds Sanders outdoes Biden in GE matchups against Trump, in SOME voter blocs, BUT (Original Post) highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

Honestly, I think VP Biden will get . . . Iliyah Jan 2020 #1

I do, too. Morning Consult found that Trump did only 1% better with that age group against Biden highplainsdem Jan 2020 #3

Does well with non-voters? Jose Garcia Jan 2020 #2

Ahhhhhh, yes, more Sanders bashing. Yawn. brutus smith Jan 2020 #4

How is this Sanders-bashing? highplainsdem Jan 2020 #6

Seems like a lot of effort to say that Biden does better than Sanders against Trump. TidalWave46 Jan 2020 #5

What that poll shows is that Dems will lose a lot more in Sanders base demographic crazytown Jan 2020 #7

Biden is offering honesty and realism. If he made the sort of wild promises Sanders has made to highplainsdem Jan 2020 #8

I don't have time for Sanders. He won't win a majority of delegates, crazytown Jan 2020 #10

"Why the fuck not make some unrealistic promise?" Because it's stupid to do so, especially if a highplainsdem Jan 2020 #11

He is known for a Bankruptcy Act that made it almost impossible crazytown Jan 2020 #12

POC and young adults know fully well what is at stake . . . Iliyah Jan 2020 #9

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)

1. Honestly, I think VP Biden will get . . .

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:45 AM

Jan 2020

a sizeable amount of the young voters. As a voter in that age range and in speaking with others like me, he has the votes.

Again, I have little faith in polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts)

3. I do, too. Morning Consult found that Trump did only 1% better with that age group against Biden

Reply to Iliyah (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:52 AM

Jan 2020

than against Sanders, getting 28% against Biden and 27% against Sanders. Sanders got 58% of that group's votes against Trump, while Biden got 51%. 6% more answered "don't know" of "no opinion" when Biden was the Democratic candidate -- 21% for Biden versus 15% for Sanders. I think those undecided voters are more likely to break for Biden than for Trump, if Biden's our nominee.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Jose Garcia

(2,609 posts)

2. Does well with non-voters?

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 09:48 AM

Jan 2020

Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

brutus smith

(685 posts)

4. Ahhhhhh, yes, more Sanders bashing. Yawn.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:06 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts)

6. How is this Sanders-bashing?

Reply to brutus smith (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:19 AM

Jan 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TidalWave46

(2,061 posts)

5. Seems like a lot of effort to say that Biden does better than Sanders against Trump.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:09 AM

Jan 2020

If we remove the most reliable voters and base of the party then Sanders can have a good showing. It's been consistent propaganda and a bit funny.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

7. What that poll shows is that Dems will lose a lot more in Sanders base demographic

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:21 AM

Jan 2020

(-7%), 18-29 yrs, than gain in Biden's base AA's by nominating hi, (+1%)

The indifference verging on contempt for younger voters, unreliable,' 'selfish' 'flakey' 'screw 'em' ,of some Biden supporters could not be in greater contrast to the mindset of the Obama campaign. Joe is running the most retro campaihere gn I can remember. I hope he can course correct in the GE.

Turnout rises with ages, always has, but young voters are not unreliable in General Election, unless you are Al Gore on a morals crusade. Young voter turnout increased in both 2016 and 2018.

Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2017/05/voting_in_america.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts)

8. Biden is offering honesty and realism. If he made the sort of wild promises Sanders has made to

Reply to crazytown (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:44 AM

Jan 2020

lure younger voters, especially the promise of forgiving all student debt for everyone, he'd be almost guaranteed to lose support from Dems who aren't far left wing, or themselves likely to benefit financially from loan forgiveness.

https://www.npr.org/2019/07/10/738506646/student-debt-forgiveness-sounds-good-what-might-happen-if-the-government-did-it

The people who default on their loans have, on average, less than $10,000 in student loan debt. These people are more likely to be low income, black, former students of for-profit institutions and those who stopped taking classes before getting a degree.

Eliminating all student debt, per Sanders' plan, would increase the wealth gap between white and black households, according to one 2015 study co-authored by left-leaning think tank Demos. (Two economists from Brandeis University who worked on the study co-authored an economic analysis for Warren's campaign this year.)

To decrease the racial wealth gap, researchers at Demos have recommended a plan like Warren's, which eliminates more debt for borrowers who make less.

But even Warren's proposal would aid folks who are less likely to struggle with paying back their loans. An analysis of her plan by Adam Looney of the Brookings Institution found that under her proposal, "The bottom 20 percent of borrowers by income get only 4 percent of the savings."

And, some economists fear that wiping out debt on a wide scale could contribute to the rising cost of college if students take out loans expecting debt forgiveness down the line. Already-pricey colleges would have no incentive to keep costs down.

Biden has a realistic plan for dealing with the student loan problem and providing some free college:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2019/10/10/biden-student-loans/#5b2cba866bbf

But it isn't a simplistic "Every loan is forgiven!" inducement aimed at young voters. And it would cost $750 billion, a third of the $2.2 trillion for Sanders' plan for loan forgiveness and free college..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

10. I don't have time for Sanders. He won't win a majority of delegates,

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:52 AM

Jan 2020

and the convention won't vote for him.

Hillary won younger voters 55% like Bill did in 1996. The turned out in greater number in 2016, than 2012.

I get it, that Biden is targeting his base - older voters, in the primaries. A significant course correction will be warranted after the nomination.

(And on student debt, why the fuck not make some unrealistic promise to cut it - trump promised his damn well, knowing he wouldn't get it through congress - it will gain more votes than it will lose)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,060 posts)

11. "Why the fuck not make some unrealistic promise?" Because it's stupid to do so, especially if a

Reply to crazytown (Reply #10)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:58 AM

Jan 2020

candidate is known for honesty and realism, as Biden is.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

12. He is known for a Bankruptcy Act that made it almost impossible

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #11)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 11:03 AM

Jan 2020

to discharge student debt, that what he is known for, or will be by the time the GOP get through with him. He is vulnerable on this, he needs to address it sooner or later.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)

9. POC and young adults know fully well what is at stake . . .

Reply to crazytown (Reply #7)

Tue Jan 14, 2020, 10:46 AM

Jan 2020

AA's at this point in time favor VP Biden. The young adults favor Senator Sanders. Whoever the Nominee will be, these two factions will combine.

That said, older AA's will come out in full force and vote. Young adults - should, I guess we shall see.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Reply to this discussion